Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Some mad Ukraine bastard in Kostiantynivka setting off multiple fireworks. Hopefully a happier new year for Ukraine. Happy new year to all the Pro Ukraine posters here. I've nothing good to say to the Russian supporters.

I suppose I am just wondering can Ukraine cripple Russia's suppy lines and energy to really bring Putin to a situation where he comes to the table it doesn't look like it .Russia is such a vast areaI really can't see it happening much as I want it to .I still think some sort of deal will come about eventually unfortunately ,just very hard to see Russia beaten out the gate .

Syrski recently said the ratio of Orcs lost to Ukrainians is 6:1. A Ukrainian commander in the field recently claimed it was 8/9:1 and Trump some months back said it was 11:1.

Lenin, in a bayonet analogy, said if you encounter mush, keep pushing, and if you encounter rock, stop. That's Putin's mentality.

The other thing is that Russia is playing an away game here. A peace deal would not entail murderous hordes invading Moscow. Only Putin and a few of this cronies are personally invested in the venture. Admittedly, that’s a big ‘only’. He knows his prestige is on the line.

The problem with this vector is it'll put the Russians behind the strong Ukrainian defences in the south and east. We'll see how it plays out but you'd hope Ukraine have a plan here. As far as I'm aware they've not fully built the defenses for Zaporizhia or the north to cover attacks from here.

Ukraine won't be giving anything to ruzzia.

Even if Zelensky somehow went rogue (he won't), he doesn't have the authority to just handover a chunk of sovereign Ukrainian territory. That would require a referendum and you can be sure as sh1t the Ukrainian people who have stood fast against the poisonous moscovites won't be signing any deal.

If there's a proper security guarantee along these lines

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2025/1230/1550896-russia-ukraine/

Russia might not be in a position to come back for more. That's why 'land for peace' might be a deal worth cutting for Zelensky…

Do people trust American guarantees?

I would see it as a stopgap until Europe can defend its backyard.

If there is no change in the midterms I expect America to back and front stab as many of its "allies" as it can get around to doing.

Am I too cynical?

I seen this report on Playfra telegram. Overall 2025 territorial losses were similar to 2024. Although December this year lost a little more than December 2024.

In December, the enemy occupied 445 km2 of Ukrainian territory - 12% less than in November

At the same time, the number of assault operations decreased by 9%, which in turn is associated with personnel problems that are increasingly appearing in the enemy's army.

If we look at the sectors, the largest advance, namely 35%, falls on Slavyansk. The loss of Siversk was a serious blow, which they decided to simply forget about, moreover, this sector accounts for only 5% of assault operations, which confirms the fact, unfortunately, of the presence of problems and a high level of effectiveness of the Russian assaults.

On the Pokrovsky sector, 26.5% of territorial losses and 32.5% of assaults fell. At such intensity, and despite the larger than usual territorial losses, the defense here is still effective. Rounding out the top three is the Gulyaipol sector, where 10% of losses fell and 11% of assaults occurred. The situation with the 102nd Motor Rifle Brigade of the Troops was very bad, but despite this, the defensive actions here cannot be called bad.

Additionally, it's worth noting the Novopavlovsky (Alexandrovsky) sector, where in the area of responsibility of the 20th Army Corps, 8% of territorial losses and 11% of assaults occurred. Until October, this sector was very problematic. Over the past two months, the dynamics of the battles has fallen by a third, but the amount of lost territories has fallen significantly. We attribute this improvement to the arrival in the corps of one of the most talented generals in the Armed Forces of Ukraine - Nikolyuk.

check out zelenskys new year's speech, just epic. This will go down in memory. Everything stark and true