Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Sure you do .

Biletsky says that for the first time ever, the Russian army is not replenishing its losses - more soldiers are being eliminated than are being brought in.Moreover, they are in a catastrophic situation with their weaponry - armored vehicles,

That sounds good, but I am concerned at the same time. The kremlin is claiming a 400K force that has never fought in Ukraine has been assembled to threaten the baltic states. This might explain those comments. I have been thinking that would be utter madness, and dismissed it, given he can't take Ukraine, and thought it was likely complete nonsense and a bluff.

Unfortunately, I can see a crazy logic to it. If he invades a Baltic state and gains a foothold, he's then got hundreds of thousands, or millions, of EU citizens as hostages and could demand that the EU stop all assistance to Ukraine or he'll slaughter them.

Unfortunately I think the EU would capitulate entirely as they are hopelessly weak-willed. He might be pushing to do this imminently as there are reports of intense winter training going on and the EU is utterly unprepared and hasn't established the drone defences envisaged, yet - also likely to be a factor in any calculations.. The Orcs have a drone warfare equipped force while no one in the EU is close to having what would be necessary to resist such.

This would explain all the probing of reactions and defences with the aerial incursions by planes and drones, because the first move would be a very sudden wave of drones and possibly fighters, to take out planes on the ground, which given the ridiculous hesitancy to shoot displayed by every EU country probed so far, would likely be a complete success.

Perhaps the Baltic states ought to pull back their fighters to alternative EU Bases. The US is effectively out of NATO and wouldn't lift a finger if such were to happen. European NATO countries might have a paper superiority, but if the Orcs moved very fast and seized a lot of territory, the hostage threat would render that meaningless as I can't see the EU/NATO doing anything other than instantly capitulating to all demands.

Brilliant Cnocbui. I give my donations (plus many from other friends and family) to a friend we know well out there who puts it to very good use.

I love to think about not only the Orc scum it helps eliminate, but also the injured warriors.

Legend Cnocbui.

Nah if he invades a Baltic state NATO cruise missiles Will force what's left of the Russian air force to the far East in a Day. Their European Navy will be deleted and many of their remaining ammo depots. Their weakened air defence will get hit hard and their tankers on the euro side will stop immediately.

It'll mean he either retreats quickly with a bloody nose or will have to pull his army out of Ukraine to fight this new war. It's never gonna happen. All focus will be on Ukraine. I bet you he still dreams of taking all of Ukraine, then Moldova would be easy pickings and then after conscripting Ukrainians he might tackle the Baltic's.

The current threats are just to stop certain EU countries sending too much aid to Ukraine because they fear it might be needed to defend against Russia.

Can I just say the defense of kupyansk will go down in the history books. 2 years they held a sizable pocket protecting the Eastern side and when the Russians got close in the north they allowed them waste at least 6 month's and a lot of men/resources crossing the river to attack from the western side. A trap that has bloodied the Russian pride who'll now have to regroup and think of another long term plan for that city.

The recapture of kupyansk in 2023 was one of the most important moments of this war.

Yeah, but if the Kremlin claims they have 400k extra troops hidden somewhere, the chances of that being true are low. You can be certain the real number is something else.

Also, if Russia were to invade the Baltics, it's not like it is a scenario no-one has ever thought about or planned against. Any defence forces located in a country next to Russia train and prepare for one thing - a Russian invasion.

Putin's pet project Rusich had their commander give lessons on courage to students in St.Petersburg.

You all are right. The scenario was constructed to explain why the Orcs would allow the situation to deteriorate in Ukraine while having 350,000 'spare' troops in Belarus.

It turns out Lithuanian intelligence has vehemently refuted the allegation of there being such a large force in Belarus, saying they don't exist, so the whole thing is moot and there is not a chance of it happening.

Which leaves me being very glad at being mislead, because it means the Orcs not replacing their meat that's getting hosed at a 8/9:1 ratio indicates they likely can't replace them so they are really stuffed.

Apologies, I should have checked the central claim first, but I was a bit busy.

I think the main danger of it is Putin believing all of his own hype again (as happened with Ukraine invasion), that he can gamble big and succeed.

The goal would be to do some test of NATO that shows all the European countries that were relying in it for security it is ultimately hollow and can't protect them, and grab a little bit more territory back that he has always believed should be under Russia's rule (parts of Baltic states probably).

Very possible the US is on the sidelines (at best!) while under MAGA governance, so the next 3 years at least.

Likelyhood of this scenario (a serious Russian test of NATO) happening increases IMO, the more pro Russia/anti EU governments there are in power in the EU, and in Europe.

It will strengthen Putin's conviction that Europe is weak, riven by political differences (I think he will credit his own/China's propaganda and spying efforts with a lot of that - a further confidence booster), and will therefore find it impossible to respond effectively in a crisis provoked by Russia.

Unfortunately the de facto pro Russian parties in the UK, France and even in Poland (which is nuts to me) are performing well in the polls currently also, despite all the evidence of how corrupt and compromised they are available to anyone paying attention.

Ukraine seems to have launched a counter attack around Pokrovsk

Mixed news today for Ukraine.

Reports from Ukraine (RFU) says Ukraine has liberated 5 villages in Dnipropetrovsk after 100 days fighting over them.

On the other hand, Skruffy on YouTube says Russia has advanced out of Vovchansk into the green area, and around Huliapole. Huliapole is in the South in Zaporizhia region.

I can't get my head around the number of Russians conscripts and "volunteers" that put their own money into buying basic necessities like fuel for their scoobydoo van or spare parts for a drone. Surely you'd tell your commander if he couldn't organise a fill of petrol for the old banger, you'd have to carry the supplies on foot - which you'd be quite prepared to do, but it'd obviously take a lot longer to get to the frontline.

So much of what goes on on the Russian side makes no sense whatsover … but it's obviously endemic (and contagious, seeing as it's spread to the Russians in the White House)

Ukraine says it's not in the town itself but surrounding fields that are contested.