Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

I just completely disagree with you, especially the focus on military and force to the exclusion of every facet of civil liberties. I think history since 1945 proves my point. There’s this idea that if you laud the EU you must be saying that it’s without fault and that all of its initiatives are a success, which is nonsense. It’s simply the best example of how the world should be governed. It’s a discussion for another thread really though as going off topic now.

"The Clash" reporting that a Russian Orlan 10 drone crashed in Izmit, Turkey. Likely fired from Crimea.

Let's hope Trump is entering his lame duck period and it is just a question of humouring him until his influence on foreign policy wanes -and nursing Ukraine until America becomes at least an honest broker rather than a war vulture.

..

Some twitter posters, usually reliable,

Reporting the Ukrainians are back in Chasiv Yar. Wonder if it's true

Those same rules its tied up in eliminates the risk of a Trump like situation in the EU. Being slow to react isn't always a negative.

Plus if you don't know how it could never be an empire under the current iteration then you need to educate yourself. Europe is not designed to project power, Europe is not designed to be the reserve currency, Europe is not designed to reach concensus easily and generally won't unless faced with an existential threat like the 2008 crash or Russian aggression. They are actually positives to the EU rather than negatives. No President/king deciding the direction of the union.

When all is said and done, I see the EU and China being the two pillars in the world within the next 15years. The American empire will fade over time before crashing heavily. Russia will disintegrate. The west will move closer to the EU, the east will become China. Europe will have mineral supplies from Canada, Australia, Russia and Ukraine. And our non aggressive posture will mean we will have strong relations with all.

time will tell

China controls the EV and battery markets. They've just reverse engineered the machinery to make their own superconductor chips.

America is $32trn in debt, on the brink of recession, have fallen out with all the countries who had their back to cozy up to dictators. Canada have diversified to other markets. Central and south America have zero trust in them and their imperial notions. Brics are hoarding gold and silver, driving up the price, which results in alot of paper investors looking to cash out. The banks don't have as much metal as they have metal sold. The empire is cooked. Not today or tomorrow but by the time the mid 2030s rolls around you'll see a much diminished US of A.

In a world where spending power is being eroded by inflation and quantitive easing every year, cheap is all the matters. No one can afford European electric cars and America is getting out of the electric car game. Ford just announced they're abandoning electric.

They're putting their farmers out of business and transferring the land to billionaires. Education is crap for the vast majority as evidenced by MAGA. They no longer want immigrants who make up a huge part of their innovation. AI is a bubble where only one company will win, likely Google. The rest could go under such is the level of investment.

And outside of satellites, space exploration is nothing more than a dick waving competition. The only reason they went to the moon in the first place was to prevent the Russian's getting the Kudos. They havent been back since.

Reports of another Russian war crime. They have kidnapped 50 villagers from Firabovsk, Sumy region and deported them to Russia. This village is far away from the stated Russian goals in Sumy, so it must have been an infiltration team. They are also using infiltration tactics in Kharkiv but this time it failed.

Also, in Kupiansk sector, Ukraine has pushed Russian drone operators from the Western Bank of the River Oskill to the Eastern Bank. The River divides the city.

I think one of the reasons Ukraine is fighting so hard in Pokrovsk is it has a road to Chasiv Yar, which could be cut off if Pokrovsk fell. I think the important thing in this context is the road. Also the railway. Most maps show the Russians have been just south of the railway.

Its not just about cities its also about rail and road junctions. Even if Ukraine may not be in a position to use them at the moment, denying or frustration the enemy's use of them is important too.

Pokrovsk would not be in danger if Avdiivka had not fallen, and that was during the 9 months when Trump and Johnson were blocking a vote on aid.

Chasiv Yar has high ground, which would have been useful to prevent Russia getting to Pokrovsk if Avdiivka not fallen.

It took Russia 41 months to capture Siversk.

Map of the timeframe:

ISW says:

Russian forces have likely seized Siversk — a town with a pre-war population of less than 11,000 — after 41 months of fighting. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on December 21 that Russian forces completed the seizure of Siversk, advanced to heights west and northwest of Siversk, and reached the chalk quarry west of Siversk.[31] Mashovets reported that Russian forces also made tactical gains north of Svyato-Pokrovske and seized Fedorivka and Vasyukivka (all southwest of Siversk) since mid-November 2025.[32] The Kremlin claimed that Russian forces seized Siversk as of December 11, and Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian defense officials have since been using the seizure of the town to promote the false narrative that Ukrainian lines are collapsing and that Russian forces are capable of immediately threatening Slovyansk.[33] The Russian efforts in the Siversk direction have been extremely lengthy, especially given that Siversk has an area of about 10 square kilometers with a pre-war population of about 11,000. Russian forces took 41 months to advance roughly 12 kilometers from Lysychansk (east of Siversk) to the western administrative boundary of Siversk.[34] Ukrainian resistance significantly delayed Russian efforts on the approaches to Siversk: ISW assesses that Russian forces seized Verkhnokamyanske (about four kilometers east of Siversk) as of October 9, 2024, Bilohorivka (about 10 kilometers northeast of Siversk) as of February 23, 2025, and Serebryanka (about four kilometers northeast of Siversk) as of August 16, 2025.[35] ISW first observed evidence that Russian forces entered Siversk’s town limits no later than November 18, indicating that Russian forces likely took 33 days to completely seize the town (with an area of three Central Parks) once entering it.[36] Russian forces must still advance the 30 kilometers from Siversk to Slovyansk and complete the seizure of Lyman before they can begin a direct assault on Slovyansk itself.[37] The Kremlin has been exaggerating the immediate implications of the seizure of Siversk in attempts to falsely portray Russian forces as imminently threatening the northern part of the Fortress Belt and making significant simultaneous advances across the theater, such that the frontline is imminently collapsing. Russian gains continue to be slow and grinding as they have been for the past two years.