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Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
The GFS afternoon op run goes for a festive flavour to our weather from the 23rd.
The deep cold over the USA is also expected to come to a dramatic end come Xmas. Maybe, just maybe…
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
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GFS 24hr rainfall predictions and totals building a bit later for around Waterford.
Big totals over the mountains of Kerry, 70 -77mm on this one and ECM not far behind. Some run off from that.
ECM much higher totals now along the S over to the SE.
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Increasingly cold mid level and uppers over us the coming days. ECM has being showing rain belts ( possible trough ) moving into the cold air on Sunday creating convection with a few wintry showers possible, maybe some white mountain peaks, freezing levels not low enough for snow yet but some frosty nights in store for parts Sat night into Sun morning, Sun night into Mon morning, Mon night into Tues morning, Tues night into Weds morning and following nights. Fog might become a feature also from the weekend in some sheltered areas.
Frontal rain on Saturday and then not too bad after that , some features showing up affecting parts at times but not widespread .
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I am amazed that there are still a fair few members coming in at a good bit below the operationals of the gfs and gem for 850s on Christmas Day/Stephens Day. Don’t think any of them will happen but shows how uncertain the models are only 4 days away.
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How far south the high drifts is dependent on the strength of this secondary low the models are picking up on. The trouble is, it is only starting to gather itself around Tuesday afternoon.
I would really like to see the parent low to the north of the area marked hold further west and make it's way up the west coast of Greenland. However, that is very much unlikely to happen, so it spawns a secondary low which 'topples' our high southwards over Ireland and the UK in the days ahead.
Pity, but that's the joys of the Atlantic. It can still manage to spoil the fun from two thousand miles away let alone off the west coast of Clare.
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still think that Arctic plunge will reach us eventually, a very end of December 1962 chart !
… been in the pub all day so apologies for my outrageous ramping ..a very old chart from weathercharts.org .. 25/12/62 .. definite similarities.
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Some frosts in places over the coming days and feeling cold but Tuesday has the first real cold potential over us and pressure remaining high. No real source of precipitation showing up at this stage but maybe getting cold enough on elevated ground for a few flurries of snow or graupel coming in from the East coasts off the Irish sea ?? European models more progressive with the cold than the GFS.
ECM has -5C 850 hPa temps for a time, UKMO borderline between 0 and -3C on the E coasts, GFS perhaps getting there late in the day coming down from the NE to about -3C, ICON -4 to -6C, GEM above 0C on the latest run.
Surface temps staying up around 6 or 7C along the East it would seem with the winds coming in off the sea. Cold across the country followed by a widespread sharp frost and possibly fog ( maybe freezing fog for a time ) inland on Weds and some areas might struggle to get up over 2 or 3C and followed by freezing hard early evening on Weds.
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Fantastic pattern at +72hrs, I'm using the GEFS to illustrate, but essentially all models look the same at this range. Full of promise with that trigger low dropping down from the north, as heights build into Greenland.
At +96hrs we are only heading one direction...
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Well for now, all the models for Thurs/Fri now bringing that LP ( depicted of various strengths ) well South of us on a track towards the English channel /France. The chance of a frontal snow event has all but vanished, some models still showing a few wintry showers from showery troughs at times but mainly on elevated ground, 850hP temps could be around -4C or so . Windy conditions on the main staying off shore.
Remaining on the cold side this week with widespread frost tonight for a time with approaching fronts from the W. Might have some snow initially in the N and over some Mountain ranges especially the Wicklow Mts where it will be the coldest in the East by morning with temps rising from the West.
Next week end looking unsettled at times with wind and rain and milder temperatures.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
This morning’s ICON run suggests a relatively high risk of low-level snowfall, at least for a time, across parts of Munster and southern Leinster. In contrast, the 06z GFS limits the risk mainly to higher ground in the south. At present, there is little support for a more widespread snow event from other models, so confidence remains low and further shifts in guidance are likely.
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