Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

One of the best comments I've read here recently, even if to some it might sound defeatist. It isn't defeatist, it's showing awareness of the reality of today's world. Morality and ethics do not guide the resolution of these conflicts, and while Russia is in a bad place Ukraine is even worse off, and the only continent that wants Ukraine to win, which is Europe, is militarily a 3rd rate power that cannot possibly succeed without US support, much less when China and India are pro Russian.

I think India's motives include energy and also their hostile relations with Pakistan and border clashes with China. They feel they need Russian weapons. Also perhaps continued bitterness about the British empire, and legacy of Cold War alignments with the USSR while still being a democracy.

So aligned was India with the USSR that some ministers even welcomed the 1991 coup when it looked like it had succeeded, which it hadn't.

Personally I doubt Putin would choose India over China if push came to shove. India's leaders tend to be very old, and they have long Cold War memories about the US supporting Pakistan. China is more important economically. India has maybe more people than China, but it's growth is hamstrung by protectionism. Fareed Zakaria is from India and a CNN presenter. He described, when criticising tariffs in the US, how tariffs in India led to corruption, as companies close to whoever was in government got exemptions and others not so much.

Actually I think protectionism is also a growing problem in the EU too as the debate on CETA and Mercosur shows.

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Switzerland as a prime example.

Sure, they're always 'neutral' but there's a reason Operation Tannenbaum never went into action.

How far away can a drone operator be positioned?

I am trying to work out the logistics of recent events... How it's possible.

And not forgetting the Russian drones with Polish SIM cards so they could use that country's infrastructure.

Some drones are fitted with a Starlink antenna so communication could in theory be from anywhere in the world that Elon Musk says its OK. Also seen details of some that have phone network SIM cards integrated into their controls. As far as I'm aware a drone controler using the correct technology could be thousands of kilometers away from where a drone is active.

My god that's so embarrassing.

A decision was made not to shoot down the drones, and there was no ability onboard the naval vessel to disable them. It is understood an Irish Air Corps aircraft was also patrolling at the time but did not get involved.

Irish forces had limited other options for dealing with the drones, which are technically known as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Handheld equipment purchased by An Garda Síochána could not be used to take down the drones as it was out of range. There was also no air defence capability save for the machine guns of the naval vessel. The LÉ Yeats has no air radar capability.

It's so easy to make "a decision not to shoot down the drones" when you can't do it in the first place.

I am an independent free thinker and you're all sheep in a bubble.

Meanwhile you're wholesale swallowing and gargling Russian propaganda. Your position is as boring as it is unoriginal. I mean we have you as a well worn bingo board item for christ sake. It's a cliche.

Now what would be interesting is if you had come on here with your juvenille, west hating , anti-establishment line but with an added sprinkle of also hating and admonishing the child bombing dictatorship that is Russia. Now that would be surprising.

Have you ever considered why your views are about as popular as old fashioned racism? Has the thought ever flashed across your mind that you might be the one in the wrong? Maybe it's good that excusing the bombing of children and pensioners in their beds isn't mainstream ya know?

Interesting question. Having had a policy over at least 4 years, if not 12 years and longer, which has completely failed the responsibility for solving the problem "overnight" sits with the critics of the failed policies. As the old joke about directions goes, to get to a point where the killing stops over night, I wouldn't start from here.

It is very difficult. Firstly, the terrible cadre of leaders who brought us to this point are sitting in distinct but reinforcing power centres: national leadership (Starmer, Merz, Macron), EU leadership (Kallas, Von Der Leyen) and organisations like NATO (Rutte). Even were leadership to be upgraded in any one level, the others would band together to try crush the dissent and return to the failed policies which have led to this debacle. Everything would be done to sabotage a fresh approach.

But lets assume they can be cleared out, root and branch and some genuinely competent Europe focused leaders are brought in. Then the first priority is for Europe to get a seat at the table to represent a European position. This is harder than it sounds - you need to bring together a respectable negotiating team who can cover all areas of discussion. And you'd have to do significant work in advance to identify Europe's actual pragmatic interests as regards Russia, Ukraine and the conflict. Estonia's interests are not necessarily Italy's interests.

You would also have to identify what cards Europe has to play - and there are some, even now. Apart from the Russian assets, Russia really wants a comprehensive security agreement for Europe which reduces the risks it perceives from NATO deployments on its borders and missile silos etc. Only Europe can offer this - the US cannot. Further, both Europe and Russia have a common interest in post-war Ukraine not devolving into some Greater Kosovo. Europe can trade some of these cards to secure its own interests, and also to soften the terms for Ukraine.

Ukraine is going to need careful handling too. Europe is going to have to sit down with the Ukrainian leadership and have a serious talk about what Europe can do, and what Europe cannot do. And Europe cannot sustain Ukraine. They couldn't do it with US help, certainly cannot do it without US help. And Europe will not fight for Ukraine. Europe has been lying to Ukrainians about "as long as it takes" for almost 4 years now. It has to be made extremely clear that they have been misled and taken advantage of, and its not going to get any better. Europe should push for free elections in Ukraine to elect a government who can represent Ukraine in peace negotiations. Zelensky will resist of course, but he might be persuaded if offered amnesty from post war corruption trials, and offered physical security by European states in the aftermath for him and his family.

But really, none of this can happen - the people who get themselves into debacles like this clearly don't have the ability to get themselves out of it. My belief is the most probable outcome is a 1945 style imposing of terms by the Russians.

Part of the reason the "stab in the back" myth took hold in post WW1 Germany was that right up until a few weeks prior to the German surrender, the German public had been told relentlessly that Germany was winning the war. They had just knocked out Russia, and they were still occupying France. The stab in the back myth provided a comforting explanation that Germany hadn't really been defeated, but betrayed. We're going to see a lot of this in the next few years, particularly in Ukraine itself. Already the narrative is that Ukraine was winning on every front until Trump came along.

They are absolutely a majority of bot comments.

The same old familiar talking points raised repeatedly in various forms.

Zelensky is a billionaire, why doesn't Zelensky want peace, how many more Ukrainian's have to die so Zelensky can build his new mansion, all the money is being siphoned away by Zelensky and his friends, how many more Ukrainians have to die in NATOs war, Ursela von der Lyon is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian, Ukraine has no men left, Zelensky needs to stop this senseless killing for everyones sake, god bless all the dead Ukrainians and Russians affected by NATOs war, etc.

You can see more of the same blatantly transparent pro-Russia waffle wrapped up in pseudo-analysis from a certain poster above. The core playbook is that Zelensky is the root problem, the one keeping the war going for his own benefit and material gain, the one who does the bidding of NATO and the EU, almost a Hitler-like singular reason the war is still ongoing.

Another classic cornerstone of that strategy is refusing to accept that Ukraine's blindingly obvious strategy from day one is to resist Russia to the point of Russia being unable to maintain/continue the invasion and being forced to withdraw, and instead insist that Ukraine cannot "win" because it can't achieve some massive overwhelming conventional military defeat of Russia.

And of course, the absolute classic, concern for the wellbeing of Ukrainian lives, and how the war must end on Russia's terms to stop "the senseless killing".

Some more stuff in putin's terrorist state caught fire last night:

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-russian-seaport-oil-refinery-in-reported-drone-strikes/

Good to see genuine sanctions being applied by Ukraine.

Also reported that a strike by the armed forces of Ukraine confirmed to have knocked out one of putin's terrorist's bombers.