Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Finland only had 4 million people fighting a Soviet population of 200 million in 1939-40 and came out of it with independence and 90% of its territory intact. yes there was Finlandisation but the USSR left them in peace (although they had to bend over backwards sometimes like banning books the Soviets didnt like) afterwards. Finland dropped the "Friendship Treaty" when the USSR dissolved.

I dont see how the USSR would have collapsed if the West had taken an approach that it couldnt be defeated. We are at risk of strengthening the arguments of our enemies that democracy is a weak system.

I dont see how Ireland and the other colonies would have become independent if we took that approach.

German magazine Der Spiegel claims a transcript of a conference call with top European officials details Alexander Stubb warning President Zelensky and Ukrainian delegates mustn't be “left alone” with “these guys”, reportedly referring to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Republicans urge Donald Trump to increase military aid to Ukraine.

Belgium resisted banning Russian diamonds until December 2023.

I would have been shocked if at this point if European leaders had any trust in the US regime at all. It is quite clear IMHO at best the US could care less what happens at worst they will actively assist the Russian dictatorship. I have said it before but not just in regard to Ukraine and the Russian dictatorships invasion but in general Europe simply cannot trust the US any more and we need to move forward with that assumption in mind.

It is terrifying to think that a few minutes time difference could have made a critical international incident, if not worse. Are we now in a position that a nuclear drone can enter our airspace we have no detergent or no ability to disable. Also the secretly deployed Irish naval vessel was no secret to the drones.

We don't even know if there was an undetected ship in the same waters deploying the drones, or were they launched from Killiney Hill

Certainly not good enough

Lagarde is a laggard when it comes to the frozen assets. She should not be reappointed for a second term. We need the institution to speak with one voice on Russia-Ukraine. Dividing Europe and separating it from the United States has always been a Russian foreign policy goal, going back to Soviet times. MAGA is playing into their hands but so are a few member states.

Russia has had no problem confiscating Western assets in Russia, like Danone Russia and the aircraft (Ireland was the main source of them), but theyve been able to afford this war for 4 years.

Its a matter of restitution and justice that the victims of a crime are compensated.

From what I have seen in the ECB since it was established is that people often get the top job there because its seen as their turn. Jean Claude Trichet's bearish interest rate policy did not suit Ireland and arguably contributed to the housing bubble.

The urgency right now is that the EU says Ukraine will run out of money by next Summer if they dont get the loan secured on the reparations secured on the assets.

If that happens, we could have a repeat of the 2022 Ukrainian refugee crisis, especially if we again see the litany of destroyed cities.

Putin is not interested in anything that leaves an independent Ukraine. We need to realise that in the West. Russia only respects strength. The Russian economy is the size of Italy's economy. There is no reason we need to bow to Putin.

The plan is not to hand over the capitals, but to secure a loan based on them in lieu of Russian reparations to Ukraine. We have already been paying profits from some of the assets to Ukraine.

I think with the Russian Central bank assets, those are sovereign assets.

I think part of the problem with the international debate is that it is too influenced by corporation lobbyists opposing a level of sanctions that would force Russia to make concessions. Some EU states are still buying Russian LNG. And if you include Russian oil that is mixed with foreign crude and then refined in India and exported around the world, we are still buying Russian oil. On the Russian oil/gas issue, Trump has a point in criticising the EU. But the danger is that it becomes a game of pass-the-parcel.

Also Russia still only controls 19% of Ukraine.

If the argument some are making is that a small country cant beat a big country, then that has been disproven in conflicts like Israel and the Arabs, the US vs Vietnam, decolonisation etc.

Lots of factories being set up in the UK and other countries to manufacture for Ukraine.

Article 29. My understanding of this is that we are prohibited from arming another country that is at war or sending troops to assist:

"The Irish Constitution does not explicitly define neutrality but contains Articles that support a policy of peace and non-alignment

Article 29 affirms Ireland's commitment to peace, the pacific settlement of disputes, and international law, while a specific clause prevents the state from joining a "common defence" established by the EU."

Here's another angle on it

The Russian ship Shtandart was anchored off Killiney in July. Then it made a night time landing in Clogherhead, louth. None of this was approved or permission asked by the sanctioned vessel. The coast guard only boarded the ship finally 2 days after it illegally docked in Killiney and left then hours after it docked again in Port Oriel. That was plenty of time to fly drones to agents in Killiney or in Louth. And leave them with them for the what if's plans.

The ship should have been impounded by the state straight away in the first instance.

That tweet is a pathetic smear campaign against De Wever. He's always been open about his support for Ukraine.

People seem to not realise that his point regarding the assets is backed by every single political party in Belgium. Belgium won't risk itself doing this when the rest of Europe sits on their hands, nor should they.

Yes - this is the prudent, vigilant and even hawkish view to hold especially now they have moved on Urkaine. I believe the best way to end this now is to give them leeway to reenege and pull out with something for them which signifies a win.

Calling them names and saying that they want more or can't be believed is the sure way to WW3. We need to give them more - pull the Ukrainians out of the occupeid territory and include the Russians in the future of global business. To shut them out completely and start demanding reparations for war crimes is a closed off strategy.

Ultimatums usually backfire when the accused call it's bluff. To lay down the law to Russia now is not advisable. We need an agreement and now.

No you don't get it. If we let them win then they will definitely never do it again. Pinky promise.