General Irish politics discussion thread

If Hutch had not been in the 2024 GE race, Daly might have got many more votes as an anti-government protest candidate. That protest vote is still there. The problem is that the turnout in bye-elections is often lower than that in GEs. There was also an ideological aspect to Daly's vote and her vote in 2024 might reflect that. It really depends on the anger of the electorate at the time the bye-election is held.

Didn’t Hutch’s votes last time or the bulk of them coincidentally mirror the number of new registrations in that constituency?

Also sure how would he get a tax compliance certificate?

Thirdly ,1 seat in a by election means everyone else transfers against him so how would he have a hope,he’d be at nothing

I’ll tell you who would have a chance ,probably, Claire Daly unfortunately

I'll miss him on P2P. I subscribe to it and loved the 2 episodes at the weekend. The jury is still out of course but so far it's a hard listen. No one is tuning in for Matt unfortunately.

I agree that the podcast is now doomed, you need the 2 lads bouncing off each other.

Having said that, he has come across as a complete clown in the last few weeks. He has not owned his conflicts of interest and I imagine his media training business is done (he has shown to be poor at it himself and his client list has been poor too). Can't see him back on Irish media again.

You'd wonder how the concept of a conflict of interest even exists if, as Yates claims, people can just decide not to be biased.

In 2011, FF had been reduced to 20 seats and Labour had also gained seats and was at 37 seats. FG offered a political career path to Donohoe. FG has been in a long term decline since then and has consistently lost seats in every subsequent GE. The 50-60 range is optimistic as it would require the collapse of FF because FF and FG are now fishing in the same pool for votes. The range seems possible with a a merged FF and FG party.

FG seems stronger in younger demographics than FF. The problem is that FG leadership has been unable to exploit that advantage. It has become too subservient to FF. It is also developing an identity problem in that it is too closely linked to FF's electoral fortunes. The trend has been for FF to gain seats at the expense of FG with FG going into government as FF's junior partner. To even get close to that 50-60 seat range, FG will have to rebuild during a time in opposition as it should have done after the 2020 GE. At the moment, there is nothing to differentiate FG from FF for the voter.

600k tax free as well, so in effect he'll be taking home approx 5 times his current salary.

Perhaps you'd be good enough to post a link to it if it is not a subscription podcast?

Unfit to hold the chair.

To be fair, this feels more like a sinn fein issue rather than a Verona issue.

Not that anyone will notice or care (including voters). 

Or will only care if they convince themselves the lavish spending is going exclusively to 'furriners'. I think every single comment critical of fiscal policy on this journal article mentions immigration/IPAS Centres/Ukranians etc.