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General Irish politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,915 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    We were in Mary Fitz’s heartland along the Navan Rd, and got the infamous leaflet drop in the letterbox the night before the election. Vote Bertie 1, Cyprian 2, Mary 3. Shafted by her own party



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 976 ✭✭✭steinbock123


    Where is Cyprian these days ??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,290 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    His linkedin says he's a retired TD, he seems to be on some boards too.

    He's 62 and lost his seat in his late 40s, though he did get the pension immediately unlike anyone who lost their seat at elections since (they have to wait to 65). I'd love to be able to retire from whatever job I'm doing in my late 40s!

    Royston went to the US at some point, I think he's a hotelier or hotel manager in Florida now. Hopefully nothing like the other notable Florida hotelier politician.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,010 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Ah I was complimenting him for keeping his head. And your post . Sorry about that .

    And seeing as another poster upbraided me saying he thought he was reckless just shows how differently everybody thinks here .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,074 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Since the establishment of the State we had many decades of narrow Dept of Finance "you can't do that" thinking holding this country back, and all it did was perpetuate poverty and misery.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,813 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Understood.

    That's why opinions are like anuses, everybody's got one.

    But I don't think he was ever reckless, I think he made informed and experienced decisions. Being in the Finance gig is like driving a train, balancing the throttle and the brake to achieve a smooth ride for everyone, and ensuring not to derail when you meet a bad bend.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,641 ✭✭✭jmcc


    /Without Donohoe's transfers, Sherlock/Lab would not have been elected. With Donohoe not running in the next GE, there may not be many FG>Lab transfers and FG transfers will probably stay within FFG. The fluff piece about the "qualifications" of the new office holders in the IT managed to completely ignore their qualifications. Donohoe helped with the perception that FG still had some fiscal competence and expertise. Harris is a liability and the sooner Jennifer Carroll MacNeill replaces him as leader, the better it will be for FG. The bye-election could be the first chance, if it is held before the one in Galway, to see if the "Vote Left, transfer Left" strategy is used. It if is and is successful, things could get a bit iffy for FFG.

    Post edited by jmcc on

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,820 ✭✭✭pureza


    I read so much nonsense and worse like this here and in the CA forum from 2020 to 2024
    let’s apply some reality
    The current government or any future iteration of it aren’t looking to Dublin central for numbers,the most optimistic of them even wouldn’t be looking to it for a by election victory

    It’s the 3rd 4th and 5th seats at GE’s over the broad spectrum of constituencies nationwide (as well as poll toppers like Simon Harris) they’re needing and that will depend on the state of the economy in 2028/9 which is a long way away



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭BQQ


    How many retirements/resignations since Harris took over does that make it?

    Surely FG need to act soon or they might become irrelevant after the next election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,917 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    You seriously thinking JCMcN is leadership material? To me she is the most arrogant TD I’ve come across in a long long time.

    I agree with You about SH being a liability. How McEntee thinks he’s the right choice as finance minister speaks volumes about her line of thought - he’s the clown who looked after the NCH over runs in both cost & time frame. I fear for this country.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,813 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    As I've said before here, I know JCMN personally. I'd be interested to know what you characterise as arrogance from her.

    In my experience, she is like a dog with a bone when it comes to reforming broken systems and eliminating waste and inefficiency. She is extremely intelligent, experienced in politics, business and the law, she is always entirely across her brief, and she doesn't suffer fools gladly. Yet she is very good fun, amiable company and takes her greatest joy and love as a mother and parent alongside her husband Hugo.

    Perhaps those things that you may perceive as arrogance, are the very characteristics which make her a natural leader and a rare talent.

    Right now, in my view, she would have the shortest odds to be Ireland's first woman Taoiseach. Way ahead of Mary Lou McDonald, who I think is on the downward slope of her long political career.

    Underestimate JCMN at your peril.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,517 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I reckon if she ends up as leader they become a more focused party, a more ideological party, but ultimately a smaller party with a smaller base of voters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,917 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    I plead ignorance as all I know of her is her appearances on debate programmes. And for her appearances strike me as bombastic, keeps interrupting other guests talking ( granted that’s nearly all politicians). For me she doesn’t come across at all appealing.

    You obviously know her well ( going by your post above) so I’ve said my piece. I’ll leave it at that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,917 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    I think in fairness to her, FG were already on a slippery slope.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 56,660 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    I'm not really into politics and don't support a party. I vote mainly for someone who I strike a chord and share views with. However I have a lot of time for Paschal Donoghue wo took the Finance roll at a very difficult time for our country and in my opinion did a tremendous job from then until now. Fair play to him. I wish him luck in his new role.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭For Petes Sake


    Actually, those specific transfers to Sherlock came from Mary Fitzpatrick's FPVs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,641 ✭✭✭jmcc


    At the moment, she is FG's least worst option for leader. Her panel appearances indicate that she might need a bit of media training because she can appear arrogant. Strategically, she is FG's best chance at remaing a distinct party other than FF's supply of seats and votes.

    Harris and McEntee were appointed by Varadkar because he thought that they would not be potential leadership challengers. There is a whiff of Dunning Kruger off the three of them in that they were all promoted well beyond their abilities. FG has lost seats and support. All three of them have been disasters in whatever portfolio they were given. FG is being turned into a kind of half-party (like Labour was pre-2016) of Irish politics and it needs to reassert itself before FF takes more of its seats in the next GE. Replacing Harris as leader would be the first step.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,820 ✭✭✭pureza


    I’m finding it amusing that a T.D who was elected on the first count in his constituency ,brought in a running mate and is soon to have the top job in government again, is being wrote off as useless

    What does that make the opposition and in particular SF? Worse than useless?

    Must do because,well they’re the ones who lost 100,000 votes in the last election less than a year ago in a bigger electorate



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,974 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Huh? She is in cabinet for less than a year. The jury is absolutely out on what she is good at.

    So far all she has done is have a public spat with BAM. And yet we still don't know the completion date or final cost of the 8 year delayed Children's Hospital. In fact they announced the 16th delay last month.

    We have headline after headline about our failing health service over the past few months (Tusla, Care homes, Mental Health services, Scoliosis, Psychiatric waiting lists, Disability services etc.) and she has been fairly quiet. Oh hold on, she commissioned some more reports to tell us what we already know...

    Fine Gael have provided us with many failed Health Ministers. Nothing to suggest so far that Jennifer will be any different.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,641 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Go look at the table posted upthread. Without the transfers from Donohoe, Hutch would have won.

    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,290 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Those transfers came entirely from the last bundle transferred to Donohue, which were from Mary Fitzpatrick.

    You do understand how our voting system works surely, rather than just using this - once again - as an attempt to try wedge moaning about Labour in to every single post you make?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭For Petes Sake


    But they weren't Donohoe FPVs, they were Mary Fitzpatrick's, if you bothered to read what I actually said.

    You specifically said that those transfers would stay in the FFG family otherwise, however they stayed within FFG and still found their way to Sherlock. So your logic is wrong, again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,641 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Donohoe's transfers only came into effect when he was elected. This point at which transfers come into effect has been missed by you and L1011. The timing of the transfers is important as is the order of preference. With FF and FG candidates transferring strongly to each other, the other candidates like Sherlock were merely waiting for crumbs to drop from the FFG table. The third preferences for Sherlock from Fitzpatrick from second preference Donohoe votes did not come into effect until Donohoe was elected. This whole STV thing can be quite complex like that.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭For Petes Sake


    Correct, they came into play because Donohoe only needed a couple of hundred out of the 1800-odd that he got. That's how quotas work.

    The point you made was that they wouldn't go from FG to Lab, they'd likely stay in the FFG family.

    The example you personally used actually contradicted your own point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,600 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Ivan Yates at the Oireactas Committee this evening was Priceless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,641 ✭✭✭jmcc


    This is what I said:

    "Without Donohoe's transfers, Sherlock/Lab would not have been elected. With Donohoe not running in the next GE, there may not be many FG>Lab transfers and FG transfers will probably stay within FFG."

    I am not talking about the upcoming bye-election. Without a heavy hitter like Donohoe running in the next GE, the dynamics of the election in that constituency will change. That change will adversely affect a candidate like Sherlock/Lab who is completely dependent on transfers. The replacement candidate for Donohoe in the next GE may not manage to get as many votes as Donohoe did in 2024. That means, in simple terms, there would be fewer transfers left to distribute in the event that the FG candidate gets elected. The decline of FF and FG support in the opinion polls, at this time, makes that outcome more likely. FF and FG transfer strongly to each other more than other to other parties. (Fitzpatrick to Donohoe in 2024.) That could evolve into a voting pact if their support %s continue to decline. There's a RedC opinion poll due soon and it will be interesting to see if the fallout from the presidential election and Donohoe's resignation are picked up as a decline in FF and FG support.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,290 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I missed nothing. STV is clearly too complex for you, but that won't stop you crowbarring anti Labour stuff in absolutely anywhere you can.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,335 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I am 99% sure I read Neasa has ruled herself out.

    Hutch will get the attention , but yeah don't see it happening.

    I would expect whoever SF puts forward will be solid fav, but Janice Boylan isn't exactly a political powerhouse, poor showing especially in 2024.

    A small chance if the Social democrats are clever they can win this seat if SF can't find a more formidable candidate than Janice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,784 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Clare Daly might have another crack? If she can stay ahead of the Shinner and pick up their transfers…



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,335 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    She's not on a good run at the moment with the elections , but don't think she has ever lacked confidence so possible!

    It should be a SF seat this, but and I don't want to sound cruel, Janice Boylan seems like a weak enough front runner.



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