Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Kind of feeds into an earlier discussion about why Russia hasn't suddenly imploded yet. This is damaging Russia and it will bring them to the point of being unable to wage this (or any) war. However…it'll take time and it will happen gradually.

This is one of the rare instances where I would mention the size of Russia as an "advantage" for want of a better word to describe the Hell that they've earned for themselves. Thanks to its size the Russian Federation still has a lot of Soviet-era work and material available for use in order to maintain the facade that the already failing-state is somehow still functional.

All that is however finite and it will be exhausted. There has been mention that the North Koreans are propping them up. It's worth mentioning that North Korea is microcosm of what Russia has to look forward to, since Pyongyang only really functioned thanks to Soviet partonage. Beyond coal & slave labor they have practically no resources and a lot of weapony they have given to Russia is likely from stores destined for attacking South Korea in the event of a war. Which would explain why there had been previous mention of the poor quality of the North Korean weapons. They're old surplus from the Cold War…and are not likely to be replaced. Tragically for Russia, North Korea are as equally dependant on them for supplies..which I guess sucks for them…oh well…

China is another player propping them up, but as I've mentioned before they are simply in this for the money. They can charge the Russians European prices and deliver stuff that is barely suitable for their own unregulated market. It's like everyday is their birthday now and while they don't want the war (and their gravy train) to end…they're not going to go out of their way to actually help the Russians. That's not how this relationship works.

Russia will very slowly but surely reach the point of failure where it will be impossible to hide it from the rest of the world. The lack of petrol at stations is one example of such a thing…and if they still haven't fixed that expect to see more signs over time.

As you all know, I want to see Ukraine win this, and for the Russians to be soundly defeated; but I won't make declarations that Russia will implode any day now. I think that they will implode, but I feel that we need to be patient for it. It could take a while.

It's a good analysis and also feeds into my insistance that people look at the entire picture when looking at this war.

Posting about on Cauldron reports and mulling over the state of the frontline is a game for our neutral Russia fans who must focus on that because it is one of the few signs of Russian success that they can find. If they had a look at any of the rest of it, you might find them considerably less enthusisatic about posting things in support of Putin.

And so they post about a field that the Russians crossed, or an abandoned turnpike that they've planted their flag onto, or in the more extreme cases the blown out skeleton of a town of limited strategic value that cost them 10s of thousands of troops to "win".

They have to do it this way, because as soon as we talk about the ticking demographic timebomb in Russia, or their failing logisitcs or their terminally damaged economy…then the Russia party is abruptly over and becomes a wake. Our buddies are not ready to attend a wake yet it seems (but they should dress for one, since it is coming).

Ukraine are of course having a hard time of it, but the pay off will be a future where the rest of Europe is open to them. Post-war Ukraine can be rebuilt with EU help. It might take a lifetime or two, but it can be done. The same cannot be said for Russia.