Ireland V Australia. Saturday 15th Nov. Build up thread

I suspect you are right sadly, though I think central contracts also seem to handbrake a head coaches freedom to select players on form which is stupid really E.g. Henshaw at 13 this week is a garbage selection imho, assuming he was fit, picking Tom Farrell again is & was the obvious selection. He's the guy who has just found his feet at international test level, so this was a golden opportunity to see him grow into playing against a side like Australia. If he didn't do well at that, by all means discard him going forwards, but not backing a test debutant is really silly with just ~10 test opportunities & running out fast before a RWC in 24 months.... baffling!?

Lmao this Keenan discussion. We're absolutely losing the plot here.

I might have a go at calculating the probability as per bookies odds, if I can get them for all these markets.

Given that Aus beating us by 15+ points alone looks to be 30/1, it's going to be an incredibly small percentage (I'd wager <0.1%).

Could be the difference between getting Georgia or South Africa. No easy team in pot 1 but pot 2 is 50/50.

Something I don't understand is why World Rugby feels the need to do the seeding and draw so far out.

That's just not how professional sports works. Every provincial, club and test side in the world has a certain cohort of players that will be selected, either to start or to bench, as soon as they're available. They aren't required to demonstrate fitness or form because they're proven performers at the highest level and they're trusted to show their class immediately. We've already seen it this November with Doris.

prefer Hansen on the wing but given who’s not there it’s not a big one. I’d also prefer to see a bit of a change in the second row. But again with options short it’s probably hard to make a change. Like the back row and seeing mc Carthy starting is good at the front

Farrell was called up becasue there were injuries to ringrose, Henshaw, Aki and then subsequently I believe there was an injury to McCloskey. Like it or not he is not in the picture moving forward bar a similar slate of injuries so it's hardly 'baffling'. I like farrell and am delighted he got capped but he's a classic example of the shiny new thing syndrome that infects this place when ever Ireland are having a dip in form. I'll put it to you this way, and I don't think either will happen, but if someone told me either Tom Farrell or Robbie Henshaw would be Ireland's best player at the 2027 World Cup, i think it's far more likely that 32 year old Robbie Henshaw would get back to the form that made him a top player than 32 year old Tom Farrell getting to a level he's never sniffed before.

Positives from that team selection in my opinion:

Paddy McCarthy starting.
Trying something different at 7.
Prendergast getting a chance to start (before anyone loses their mind, he was always going to start 1 of the 4 games).
Clarkson, Timoney, Prendergast involved.
No Henderson. Thank you for your service, but time to move on.

Negatives:

Looking like no second row outside of Ryan,Beirne,Henderson are going to get minutes this Autumn.
Henshaw at 13. And starting.
Kelleher ahead of G McCarthy after last week.
Aki at 23.

Have Casey and Prendergast started together before? We know what he can do with Crowley but I was thinking it would be interesting to see his speed of pass with Prendergasts kicking/passing against a broken defence and this could have been a perfect game to have a look at the two of them from the start.

Not specifically picking on you here daithe7 but this post sums up the issue with our current options at 10.

Neither are good enough at present ( it shouldn't be just the two of them), Crowley is good for Munster but he was poor against the AB's and hasn't really set the world alight when given chances. Sam who got all of last year and was poor and doesn't seem to be developing any of the areas where he looked weak so far this season. Of course both players could develop into excellent options but not under this type of scrutiny.

We over hype guys and set them up for failure, Sam should have been allowed to compete with Ross Byrne for the Leinster jersey and Crowley should have had harry Byrne for competition in Munster or vice versa. We are starting to see it happen again, a reasonable young player Casper Gabriel is being talked up before he has shown anything of real note.

Farrell was right to omit both from the Lions but he's also at fault for allowing the over hyping of SP to develop by selecting him last year when he wasn't ready and also damaging Crowley by dropping him for Sam. A year of Ross Byrne wouldn't have hurt much and both could have got meaningful minutes behind him at International level while he supported SP at provincial level.

 also damaging Crowley by dropping him for Sam

What’s the evidence for this?

Crowley was not "very poor" in that NZ game - he was average at worst and, as has been pointed out many times, we were winning the game when he left the field. Always irks me when people re-write the history of that game - most of the criticism against him for that game was vague "didn't take the game by the scruff of the neck" hand wavy stuff.

Fair enough for the placekicking woes after the fact but I swear people sometimes act like Crowley was comfortably the worst player on the pitch in that game.

I take your point Podge, like everything on here it is just an opinion. Yours is every bit as valid as mine.

Sam definitely has a higher ceiling and better skillset than Ross, visible in patches, but what I am talking about is ensuring he reaches it consistently. Another year of being sheltered a bit by another option especially at this stage of the wc cycle would have helped imo. Maybe they are taking the pain now thinking it will come good for the wc.