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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

1246

Comments

  • #92
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The trend towards Atlantic blocking and more settled weather around mid-November continues in the European model (ECMWF) operational run and ensemble mean. Potentially a good deal cooler too. The below timeline is a lifetime away in forecasting, but 'trend is your friend' etc.

    gens-51-1-264.png ecmwf-0-270.png

    www.weatheire.com



  • #93
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The GFS is suggesting colder conditions from the middle of the month. Considerable uncertainty remains, but changes are certainly afoot in the upper atmosphere as we edge closer to the meteorological winter.

    gfs-athlone-ie-535n-8w.jpeg

    www.weatheire.com



  • #94
    ClimateObserver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 245 ✭✭ClimateObserver


    Interesting…

    GFSOPEU06_234_1.png GFSOPEU06_234_2.png GFSOPUK06_234_53.png GFSOPUK06_234_25.png


  • #95
    westeast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72 ✭✭westeast


    I hope the colder weather is coming this mild and damp very bad for crops in stores and animals in sheds



  • #96
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Being lead down the garden path again… 😍

    IMG_1100.jpeg


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  • #97
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    IMG_7554.jpeg

    pub run at its usual antics



  • #98
    Stormyskies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3 ✭Stormyskies


    The FI cold is might not be so far fetched, as the Statosperic Polar Vortex is already coming under pressure from a warming 10mb high over Canada.

    This will keep a slower than normal westerly flow to the stat vortex down the road and help to increase our chances for height rises towards the pole. Not looking too bad at all i must say.

    Something to keep on eye on.



  • #99
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Is day 8 FI? 😃

    IMG_1114.jpeg


  • #100
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    This evening's ECM run illustrates the flabby, rain-making low pressure mess that will develop over Ireland next week. It also suggests that colder air and drier conditions will eventually break through by Day 8-9 (15-16 Nov) in the forecast period.

    animnrc8.gif animwhb1.gif

    www.weatheire.com



  • #101
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,465 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    2633CD67-958F-43CC-A2AF-A2CF58E3F23C.jpeg

    confused … part of me would like another 2010 but I’m also enjoying 17c in November and I still haven’t put the heating on yet it’s so mild.

    My preference would be very mild up to Xmas and a proper winter in Jan and Feb



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  • #102
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Well sweet diggity Jeebus, is it time to start getting excited again? 👀



  • #103
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,008 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's possibly a bit too early to get excited yet, Rollercoaster doesn't usually open till December with 2010 being a very obvious exception.

    However at the same time we are moving closer to a cold spell around 18th to 22nd of November so something wintry might be possible on hills in the north-west of the country and perhaps into the border region hills of Cavan and Monaghan with Northern Ireland import flurries.



  • #104
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    With all the talk of a cold spell, another very wet spell has Creeped into the model runs for the next 7 days. I’ve had over 330mm of rain this Autumn already 😵‍💫

    IMG_1116.jpeg


  • #105
    typhoony
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭typhoony


    The ECM at +240 is eye candy



  • #106
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate a shift to colder, drier conditions away from northeast-facing coasts from about a week from now. The drop in temperature would be quite noticeable considering values have ran up to 5C above average during the first week of November..

    20251108_235723.jpg 20251108_235721.jpg 20251108_235719.jpg
    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.weatheire.com



  • #107
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,642 ✭✭✭highdef


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123973816#Comment_123973816

    Can you post a chart or two that shows the eye candy as I can't see it?



  • #108
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Gfs with a stonker of a day 7 chart

    Unfortunately the uppers are only down to -5/-6 for a few days, granted there’s still 2 weeks left of Autumn. A month later and this place would be hopping😀

    IMG_1127.jpeg


  • #109
    ascophyllum
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 389 ✭✭ascophyllum


    ECM not making anything of it unfortunately. It is a very interesting signal though and far from resolved yet. The GFS 12z would be a bit disruptive with 8 days of -4 over us.

    A break from the Atlantic gales will be welcome at least.



  • #110
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,647 ✭✭✭esposito


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123977885#Comment_123977885

    I’m one of those finding it hard to get excited as it’s only November. Anyway next week will probably be just cold and dry. Frosty mornings will be welcome.

    A mid to late December cold spell would make me very happy. Something different for a change. And seasonal.



  • #111
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,008 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I'd love a proper cold spell but it's just too early even up to +384 hours, hopefully something second half of December.

    It's possible to get something decent in 2 weeks but it would need to be a direct hit long fetch 2010 level of cold for it to happen, and the chances of getting that are minimal.



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  • #112
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,701 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Therel only be a couple of days of cold but it will test the waters though probably not cold enough for even a flake of snow bar on hills. These charts on social media are exagerrated. We have a very mild Atlantic to contend with for another 4 to 6 weeks yet. Then maybe snow can be considered.



  • #113
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    I'm not sure what the specific mechanism for this is, but does anyone else feel like in recent years we quite frequently see very nice looking Northern blocking over Greenland in FI charts, but it inevitably ends up drifting Westwards to form a dreaded west based -ve -NAO, giving us a drenching of rain as opposed to anything decently seasonal?

    It used to be that one would look out for -NAO setups and these were a fairly good indicator of cold to come, and the west based outcome for the block was a possibility, but a throw of the dice. In recent years (since the Beast in 2018, honestly) I find myself watching beautiful Greenland blocks appear in model runs and pretty much expecting the next frame to show the beginning of a Westward drift with a full west-based -ve look set in by the end of the run.

    Never really been sure on the conditions or teleconnections that cause the blocks to move in this manner but it feels to me like it's become more common in recent years, is it connected to any of the long-term decadal oscillations perhaps?

    EDIT: To alleviate the gloom of the above post, I do note on the SST charts for the North Atlantic that there's a bit of a cooling trend appearing on the 7-day charts for the mid-latitude Atlantic, while the warm anomalies persist in the North and tropical/subtropical regions - the beginning of a potential tripole setting up perhaps?



  • #114
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Relatively quiet in here given some very seasonal weather on offer next week! I will post some detail later but an interesting hemispheric pattern is developing, with solid background drivers in place if you like colder weather...

    Next week will be colder everywhere and much more dry than of late, courtesy of a Greenland high- Would expect some wintry falls on northern hills and to lower elevations inland north/midlands (+ Wicklow mountains), its too early for specifics on this but potential is certainly there.



  • #115
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    What you love to see

    IMG_1133.jpeg


  • #116
    Mr.CoolGuy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 616 ✭✭✭Mr.CoolGuy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123985652#Comment_123985652

    Absolutely

    Clear skies over the southwest



  • #117
    Ros4Sam24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 523 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123985721#Comment_123985721

    Perhaps the rarest weather phenomenon of them all🫣



  • #118
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,008 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    image.png

    Next weeks cold snap has been getting upgraded a bit in terms of cold. Still looking mostly dry for the 3 to 4 days but a few showers possible. Uppers look like averaging around -6C but there are quiet a few in the -7 to -9 territory with a few almost -10C. Impressively cold for mid November. Once this cold snap moves off after a few days the Atlantic is back in action with plenty of rain and relatively mild temperatures.



  • #119
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The GEM has opted for an easterly later in November. It is not exactly pulling in the coldest air, but it underlines just how much uncertainty surrounds the weather prospects over the coming weeks. We turn drier and cooler than of late for the next five days or so before more unsettled conditions return. What happens after that is, metaphorically and literally, up in the air.

    animjnl1.gif animfnw9.gif

    www.weatheire.com



  • #120
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123990605#Comment_123990605

    ECM maintains a westerly airflow from next weekend, while the JMA takes its lead from the GEM. Meanwhile, there is little to support such an outcome in the GEFS ensembles.

    animaoa9.gif animcyj7.gif

    www.weatheire.com



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  • #121
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,008 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Very early to be posting this but it looks like we'll have a fairly big warming in the Statosphere in about 10 days time!

    image.png

    by the start of December we have a displacement of the PV.

    image.png

    Very unusual to see this end of November/beginning of December, the PV coming under quite a deal of pressure. Interesting model watching ahead. We usually don't see charts like the above until January or even February.

    image.png


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