Presidential Election 2025

Technically rejected 8 times (ie FG have had candidates losing in 8 different presidential elections)

If you crudely add up the vote share for FF + FG+ Noel Grealish + II in last year's election you do get 56.4%.

In contrast, SF + Connolly + Lab + Soc Dems + Greens only combined for 34.6%

That's a big gap. However there's always a swing against the government parties from a general election to subsequent by-elections. Having Connolly win the Presidential election may also buoy left-wing voters.

This could be a close one. Not sure who will be in the mix though.

I was initially dismissive of II's chances given that their candidate couldn't get elected in a 16.7% quota election so winning a 50% quota election seems like a big ask. However if they can combine the base-line centre/right vote within the constituency along with the anti-government vote then they might just be able to thread that needle. Michael Collins is wasting no time in bringing it up as a target:

Not a great loyalty to Galway?? Don't be soft.

Noel Grealish represents a cohort diametrically opposite to Catherine Connolly, and one's greatest enemies in PRSTV are in your own constituency, he has no reason support Connolly in any way.

There hasn't been a government lead by the left in all that time. The comfort blanket seems to be in electing a left leaning President to balance the right of centre government. I think Connolly will imbalance that equation and result in a harder right goverment next time.

Disapointed with RTE news today at 1pm. At this time of a significant win for the left RTE have decided to lead with Marie Stein ( nor sure i spelt that correctly) and then first question framed around the suggestion that the 12% spoiled vote for a vote for her.

No wonder the younger voter, and Connolly's voters, turned to social media for their political information

In the whole of her health, Mairéad McGuinness would have won at a canter, we all know that.

Fianna Fáil weren't going to run a candidate against her.

The failure by FG and by FF, after Mairéad withdrew, was not to immediately get together and agree a joint candidate from among their collective best people, rather than go scurrying off to their respective corners and not seeing the basics of Jim Gavin's total lack of depth and experience and Heather Humphreys poor communication and past media avoidance.

There was no need for panic, and yet they did. There was no need to settle for piss poor candidates, and yet they did. There was no need to simply sit there and accept the blame for Maria 'notions' Steen , and yet they did. There was no need to give Sinn Féin all the time in the world to decide what they were doing and then get no brickbats thrown at them for not having the balls to run one of their own, and yet they did.

Any number of well-got FF or FG people would have seen off Catherine Connolly, and that they didn't is a travesty.

Catherine Connolly and her basket of deplorables didn't win this contest, FF and FG threw it away.

He did say it when he was talking to Sharon Tobin.

Agree with some of that. McGuinness would have been a formidable candiate and had a very good chance of winning. Martin, being the FG wannabe that he is, was probably not interested in running an FF candidate. Harris, rather than making McGuinness the FFG candidate tried to pull a fast one. Martin dithered.

As the smoke clears, it looks like Martin wanted a mini-me of himself as the FF candidate for one term. He may have wanted to run himself as the FF candidate for the next presidential election. The problem was that his ego was bigger than his talent and he chose a political non-entity rather than a strong FF candidate. Kelleher would have been a much better candidate.

The yapping from FFG's friends in the media about SF not choosing a candidate was irrelevant but helped FFG. SF made its decision in September as it said it would. By then, McGuinness had dropped out and FG had selected a weak candidate (Humphreys) who appealed to FG. Despite the media missing it, SF's backing of Connolly was a gamechanger. FFG's friends in the media simply weren't bright enough to understand what had changed. First McGuinness had dropped out and damned FG's chances of winning the presidency. FF had chosen a weak candidate with no political experience. The gamechanger was that it presented SF with an opportunity to unite a previously fragmented Left. That's the gamechanger. The Left cooperated and won the presidency. That may feed into the next GE with a combined Left against an FFG that is losing support.

FG suffers from a stupid people problem. These were the people who gave FG Varadkar and one of its worst GE defeats ever. These were the people who gave FG Harris who made a complete mess of the 2024 GE and got FG beaten by SF again. These were the people who chose Humphreys and the rest is history. Until FG addresses its stupid people problem, it is going to be asset stripped of seats by FF. Sean Kelly, a proven vote getter, would have been a much better candidate. These people cost FG the presidency.

SF might not have backed Connolly if FG had a strong candidate because the combined FF/FG vote could have had a single FFG candidate winning the presidency. Martin's incompetence gave SF the first opportunity. The selection of Humphreys by FG, a weak FG candidate with little appeal outside FG, gave SF the second opportunity. The third opportunity was Gavin dropping out. It isn't all FG's fault. Too many things went wrong for FFG at the same time.

Getting back to FG's stupid people problem, the decision by Harris to write to councillors to get them to block candidates blew up in FG's face. Many of the voters who might have voted for Steen or other conservative candidates would have transferred to FG's candidate or FF's candidate had he still been in the election. Steen did pursue the Oireachtas route.

To put it in stark terms: cutting off potential transfers is stupid. McGuinness, had she run, would have needed transfers. Humphreys desperately needed transfers. And what did Harris do? He blocked the source of those transfers. This was a presidential election that FG could have won. If you FGers want your party to have a future other than as FF's seat fodder, you have to fix your stupid people problem. Otherwise, FF will continue to take FG's seats.

With your use of the term "deplorables", remember what happened to Hillary Clinton. Much like the pro-FFG media here, she was lauded by the pro-Democrat media in the US. Trump won. Connolly won. If you keep blaming the electorate, you simply won't win elections. You have to convince them to vote for your candidate and party. In this election FG failed to do that.

He didn't say it…

In the whole of her health, Mairéad McGuinness would have won at a canter, we all know that.

No 'We' don't! You might be of that opinion but let's face it you continued to insist right up to polling day that HH would win, so your predicitions come with a massive health warning!

We really don't "all know that".

It's a real shame that she dropped out because it would have been a fascinating battle between herself and Connelly. Your hatred for Connolly has blinded you to her strengths and McGuinness's potential weaknesses.

Presidential election campaigns are unlike anything else in Irish politics. As we have seen again and again and again over the years many a favourite has crashed and burned in them. McGuinness would have been streets ahead of Humphreys but she still would have been the FG candidate with all that that entails in this current environment. Add to that some skeletons in her closet that Ivan Yates mentioned on his podcast a few months ago that likely would have been under the spotlight.

She certainly could have won it but she wasn't a lock because nobody ever is in these things (apart from Michael D. in 2018)