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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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GFS and other models showing different variations of this on and off for the past few days, its the ex-hurricane Melissa I think getting caught up in the jet stream. 10 days away but a very consistent signal even though some of the high-res hurricane models show a range of tracks still available to Melissa.
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The 12z ECM is a nightmare scenario for the Halloween weekend. Basically under deep low pressure from various lows and spin off lows from Thursday night to Monday morning. Let's hope this is an outlier. GFS still showing a very low storm too with widespread orange level gusts across the country.
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The ECM and GFS are both horrid scenarios for the Halloween weekend for different reasons. I think the models are having a very hard time with it though because it's just a mess of low pressure systems all coming together and they're trying to contend with that.
The ECM has us in a washing machine of low pressure systems where it'll just be deeply unpleasant for about a week. Nothing too crazy in terms of winds though, other than a spell on Saturday morning based on current guidance but it will be blustery and wet for an extended spell of time. The GFS is a beast of a storm that will bring 140km-160km gusts across most of the country for a few hours and it would be fairly destructive. I know we are still 7-8 days away from this yet so it will most certainly change but the models have been remarkably persistent about a storm for the halloween weekend for days now. It's going to be interesting model watching over the next week or so to see how it plays out.
The GIF below is the ECM output from Thursday 30th to Thursday 6th, and the stills are GFS for Saturday 1st into Sunday 2nd. You can see from the start of the GIF and from the first GFS image all the low pressure systems in play as it begins to develop.
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With a temperature gradient like this, no wonder the GFS goes nuts with that low. A 20 degree difference at 850hPa in a relatively short distance. Would produce the strongest gusts in the east for many years, possibly since January 2007 or Christmas Eve 1997. But as has been said, no doubt lots of changes to come and (hopefully) nothing to be concerned about at this point.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1658
Will the remnants of soon-to-be named Hurricane Melissa impact Ireland at Halloween?
Plenty of computer models are showing a stormy end to the month, but it appears that the storm potential is presently without significant support.
The operational model runs are likely incorporating built-in predictions/climactic patterns for systems emerging from the Caribbean Sea and their remnants getting lassoed northeast on the conveyor built that is the jet stream. Melissa remains an unpredictable case, however.
The National Hurricane Center continues to face challenges in forecasting its precise movements over the next 48 to 72 hours. The system is largely stationary, churning south of Jamaica and Hispaniola. It holds strong potential to develop into a major hurricane, with rapid intensification expected over the weekend.
On the model front, there is only limited support for a deep area of low pressure to affect Ireland around Halloween. Based on current evidence, the period is expected to be unsettled with some rain and prevailing Southwest or West winds. There is little support for a Storm Bram.
The latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), which runs 21 simulations to account for uncertainty in atmospheric conditions, illustrates the same. The ensemble average is represented by the white line. Galway is used as the sample location.
There is still plenty to learn about Melissa's future development and impact on the Caribbean, nevermind what it or its remnants produce elsewhere in the Atlantic later next week.
www.weatheire.com
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Models showing lots of energy in the Atlantic from midweek with LPs of varying track, depth and speed of forward motion. Jet looks meridional and coming up from the South towards the weekend. Has the look of being fairly disturbed weather at times but timing is all over the place at this stage. Has the look of being quite wet at times also.
GFS had ben showing stormy weather around Sat but backed off and now back on it again. Only an indication or possibility at this stage and going to take days to get a clearer picture when there is so many moving parts at play but certainly has potential to be that bit lively at times.
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Remnants of Melissa set to move into our latitudes sometime early next week but in what form, if absorbed into other systems, how much energy left, track etc very much to be determined in time. The Atlantic is mobile enough even without it but it may just harmlessly head up as a decaying low towards Iceland.
So far GFS showing lots of LP influence into next week with spells of wind and rain but as yet no stand out feature.
ECM the same and showing it to be a bit windy Monday coming. UKMO showing very windy next Monday. ACCESS-G windy and wet from later Sun through Monday.
In general has the look of being unsettled.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1658
Looking wet and windy at times this weekend and next week. Not as unsettled through the second week but a westerly airflow will persist with the best of any dry weather in the east and southeast. Signs of a drier second half of November developing
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1658
as mentioned, there are signs that higher-than-average pressure may build near Ireland by mid-month. Latest computer models suggest the Atlantic conveyor belt of rain and wind could be slowed by blocking to our west and northwest. One to watch.
www.weatheire.com
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