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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I'm not sure we will ever see a turnout lower than in 2018 at 43.9% You could be right though, Connolly has all the makings off getting in on the first count



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Well looks like Connolly is a shoe in for President.

    After the votes are counted and Humphreys has returned to retirement in Monaghan everything presidential will recede into the background again. Why anyone wants the job beats me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    FG will likely have to answer questions in front of a committee on the spreading of the misinformation video and Humphries will still have the defamation case against her. I shudder to think of where our democracy lies if Humphries becomes president after her and FGs carry on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Well you still can't spell Humphreys' name after all the reporting and debates so I suppose that's one indicator of the electorate's level of engagement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,783 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Each side sniping and bringing up dirt on the other side instead of making her own case for why she would be a good president.

    No only one 'side' is doing this, if you mean the candidate themselves and the campaign team.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Spelling was never my strong point, if you think that's bad try captioned speech to text software, but if that's the only issue you have with the points I raised then that suggests there's no real defence for how she carried on.

    The electorate are never as engaged in a presidential race as they are in general elections, even local elections have more engagement you will likely find. For the first time in my memory we have a proper left v right competition which should really make it more exciting than any elections that have gone before



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,581 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “Is Labour divided generationally between more moderate Establishment members and some of the younger TDs?”

    Very hard to know what Labour stands for these days - I thought getting Ivana on board as leader would see a rise in popularity but I think there might be a legacy branding issue here- I reckon Social Democrats have taken a fair chunk of Labour support - that and a multitude of left candidates and parties like PBP, Labour are floundering .

    No less the fact that historically once Labour do get the votes and the seats, and get into a coalition, they’re decimated at the next election if things go wrong and back to another 10-15 years in the wilderness - I wonder at this stage should they merge with the social democrats? I know there’s history there in the past that prevented this from happening but I think Ireland needs a decent alternative left of centre party - many don’t want to be part of SF or PBP but yet feel alienated by FF and FG



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,912 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Name one piece of dirt or smear that Connolly's campaign team did. Or Connolly herself. Only one party lost their integrity in this campaign.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    For the first time in my memory we have a proper left v right competition which should really make it more exciting than any elections that have gone before

    Well we've less than 24 hours left for it to get 'exciting', haven't seen much of it up to now.

    Probably because most don't see a victory for either 'right or left' in a presidential campaign as having anything other than symbolic significance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,807 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Ciarán Aherns tweet stated

    Heather Humphreys’ comments on Paul Murphy on @thisweekrte are another example of FG conveniently ignoring and dismissing our legal system in an attempt to score cheap political points

    How exactly does that cause hurt among Labour party members? As far as I can tell he is 100% correct

    Take note of the key word in my sentence "should"

    For somebody so critical of spelling mistakes you should know how to read the full sentences



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 318 ✭✭Mo Ghile Mear


    Yes that’s true actually….definitely more of a factor on one side. But the smear campaign against both from whatever source has become such a focus it’s tedious



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    I feel exactly the same. We are not being given enough choice. The only caveat I offer on this point is that Maria Steen would have been no choice at all in my mind. I find her conservative christian platform repugnant, and many of her supporters are obvious Right and Far right populists. But i dont want to go back down that rabbit hole.

    The Cons list for each remaining candidate is quite long, and despite criticizing CC for weeks about Foreign Policy, I struggle to support HH at all.

    • Heather Humphreys is a woeful candidate. I had hoped she would improve as the election cycle rolled on, but this has not materialized. She appeared hollow in most debates, and just repeated the same robotic talking points on every occasion. If i have to hear the term 'rural pursuits' again, i will crack. Heathers campaign became entirely negative toward the end, and she then engaged the faulty smear of CC, which only tarnished her own candidacy further in my opinion.
    • Catherine Connolly is a wonderful communicator, but its for that reason that I am left with no doubt about her radical foreign policy positions. From the faulty analogy between Germany of the 1930s and today, to her apportioning the blame for the Russia/Ukraine war with 'the west', she is well off the mark in her view of International Relations. In debates she often answered questions about her positioning on the EU, by stating that she abhors gencocide in Gaza.
    • Jim Gavins campaign while it lasted, was beyond all credibility. He lacked all ability to communicate, and had to be deciphered after each appearance. His handling of the rent/refund scandal was insane, when you consider the fact that the tennant, to whom he owed money, was none other than a Deputy Editor of the Sunday World.

    It really is a ridiculous Presidential election. The protest campaign has positioned itself to claim credit for spoiled votes, while also claiming that a vote for Jim Gavin, is a vote to 'stage a rerun'. Which is ludicrous, and will not happen IMHO. Overall, I suspect who ever wins will be challenged in 7 years time, should they actually go forward and seek re-election.

    As for my vote on this occassion, I remain torn. I cannot support Connolly, because of her Foreign Policy positioning, but I am now reluctant to support HH since the Barrister/Repo smear. I honestly dont know, il be going down in the morning, and il make my mind up at the ballot box no doubt.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I wouldn't quite call Labour a left wing party. Certainly during their last stint in government they caused more hardships for the middle and working classes than they did for the traditional upper class FG voters, bankers, businessmen, vulture funds etc.

    While their endorsement of Catherine Connolly on this occasion certainly shows an unexpected, but most welcome, lean to the left it should be noted that they are not all of the same mindset. Alan Kelly for example would still be considered a high ranking representative of the Labour Party and has publicly endorsed the FG candidate.

    They certainly seem very disjointed in this presidential campaign however

    What smear has the Connolly campaign made against the Humphreys one?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,581 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “How exactly does that cause hurt among Labour party members? As far as I can tell he is 100% correct”

    I haven’t a clue why you’re asking me- I never mentioned “hurt” - no less any of the other stuff you mentioned



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    For somebody so critical of spelling mistakes you should know how to read the full sentences

    I did read it and responded highlighting the relevant words including the one you call 'key' by pointing out that it didn't happen as it 'should' have by your estimate.

    Practice what you preach.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    More of a general question, not necessarily targeted at you. I think we are largely in the same boat looking at the Labour party here and saying "eh, what" in unison



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,807 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    If you look at the history of Labour and the Greens in government, their voters quickly became disillusioned and theres no reason to believe that wont also happen whenever SF or the SDs are in government, especially as many members used to be in the Labour party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Boyle Sports has Connolly on 1/33 and Humpreys on 14/1. Are these the worst odds ever for an FG candidate for the presidency?

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Crazy odds - my inner punter is screaming for me to throw on a few quid - but I think they are long for a reason IMHO.

    If the debate had gone differently, HH might have remained competative, but of course the Bookies would have taken note

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,044 ✭✭✭Caquas


    I'm sure that turnout tomorrow will be less than in 2018 when the incumbent faced off against five challengers including the previous runner-up. The total valid poll will be even lower because of an unprecedented level of "spoiled" votes. What a headache for the Electoral Commission!

    Not only will CC crush HH and win on the first count, I think she will win the highest share of First Preference votes in Presidential history and that her winning margin will be the highest in Presidential history (or in any national election?😮). CC's voters will be motivated, especially the disillusioned young, while FG/FF voters will stay home, especially if it's raining in the late afternoon/evening.

    The upshot is we will elect an anti-EU, anti-American, far-left radical to the highest office and she who will abuse it as her State-financed, super-charged, unaccountable platform to pour contumely on the government, dismay our friends and give succor to enemies of the West.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,096 ✭✭✭MFPM


    You were doing so well until the last paragraph when you resorted to the same lazy falsehoods that have not landed in 5-6 weeks of the media using the same BS tactics...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,720 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Without checking I'd say there were worse odds for Gavin Duffy in 2018 or Mary Davis in 2011.

    Remember that CCs main voter base is a section of our society famously known for not showing up to vote, ie young people. The real question is if she has motivated them just to show up and vote because if she did then she will absolutely sail home. If she didn't we could easily see a situation where all the polls are wrong



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,500 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    It's probably more that they have a core group of voters which is much smaller. But they attract support from non-government voters which grows while they are in opposition. But there is a chunk of people who will never vote for a party in government, so that means as soon as whoever they had been voting for goes in they'll go elsewhere.

    You could see the same happening to the Soc Dems if they ever go into government. It's also why the likes of PBP will never go into government (their vote would shrink to nothing). But it's also a reason why I support Labour - they go in and get policies implemented knowing the electoral outcome next time out will be bad. Greens are the same.

    1 term in government is better than 10 out.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    FG will likely have to answer questions in front of a committee on the spreading of the misinformation video

    What committee exactly is it you think they would have to do this?

    There is an awful lot of pearl clutching going on about a pretty normal political campaign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    If you look at the history of any small party out of government it's a lot easier to be 'left' and a lot harder when in government.

    Nothing will change if as expected CC wins, SF, Labour and the Soc Dems. will still all be competing for the same votes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,898 ✭✭✭ozmo


    "As for my vote on this occasion, I remain torn. "

    Same boat - There is always the third option.. - I've never considered spoiling my vote - but in this case "None of the Above" is sounding tempting - The bookies in the street know who is going to get the job - i'm thinking it might be good let know some are not overjoyed with the process and tactics that has limited us to these two - there will be commentary on this after the election.

    “Roll it back”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,500 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    One thing that will be interesting post-election is what happens in Galway-West with the by-election… A rough count has the parties who supported Catherine Connolly (plus Connolly herself) on 36.1%, Fianna Fáil on 16.8%, Fine Gael on 18.8% and Noel Grealish (government-supporting independent) on 11.4%. So pro-government combined vote was 47%, pro-Connolly votes were 36.1% and then the rest are a mix of people (Aontú, Independent Ireland, etc).

    If the Connolly team were to put forward a replacement and the left alliance held and rowed in behind them then that would be a major indication that something is changing in Irish politics. More likely will be all parties run 1 person each and the alliance as it was never happens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,581 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Ah right, sorry, gotcha now- thanks.
    Don’t have time to think about it right now as working away, (thankfully), but yeah, I’ve always thought there was a major role for Labour to play, especially to keep FF and FG in check- I would have occasionally but not always voted for them #1 depending on who the candidate was-but always included them high up on the ballot paper as I always felt a Labour coalition had the potential to bring social justice issues into play far more than if FF or FG were left to their own devices - either they’ve lost their way or SF have taken a considerable part of their membership - maybe it’s a leader thing? MLMCD is high profile so maybe it’s the leader that attracts the big following not the party policies - who knows these days



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Id have a slightly different take on the topic of small parties going into coalition with FFG. In my view the Labour party is incompatible with both FF and FG, but they always sold themselves as being in government to 'rein in' the worst excesses of both parties; but there is only so much that the junior party can do. In every coalition, especially those with FG, they have been forced to back policies which are antithetical to their basic Left/CentreLeft ideology. And at subsequent elections, they lose support from their base.

    We have never had an actual left wing coalition - but were one to be elected, it would have more cohesion than the above ideological missmatches. For example if Sinn Fein, Labour and the Soc dems ever went into government together; there would be a large area of compatibility between these parties; so that when they returned to the polls after 5 years, each party could honestly point to their successes in government. Add a sprinkle of vote management, and non-compete in tough constituency races, and they could maintain a decent level of support.

    My only caveat would be the inclusion of the radical activist left, who could collapse a government over a single issue - this would be disastrous as FFG could always point to Left Wing Alliances as being instable, and not ready for the responsibilities of government. Difficulties will surely emerge over the course of 5 years, but if it were leftwing parties committed to government, then we could push through and maintain support. But Connolly/Daly gene-pool indos would be unreliable, and could end up being the downfall of such a coalition

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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