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Presidential Election.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,702 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Before the election on Friday week? :) This presidential election already has had some impact. It has weakened Martin's position as leader of FF and is succession plans (Chambers as his successor and a run at the Aras in 2032) are in trouble. Harris already screwed up in the GE (the Kanturk incident) and there are some FGers like Carroll MacNeill who seem to want to replace him.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    It became a two-horse race because, to put it mildly, the mindset and actions of the teams (and sometimes reluctant political parties) behind the full gamut of those being nominated were, being polite....a bit silly.

    Many many people do not understand the PR system. That is shocking..but its up there with the best voting systems and suits the Irish electorate. Whereas in thicker parts of the world like America, they have simpler systems.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,655 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    The quote doesn't point to it being unlawful or unconstitutional though, it's entirely out of of context. So I'm inclined to say in a weeks time, this story will continue to be irrelevant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,632 ✭✭✭✭retalivity




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ah, from X, that noted harbinger of truth and restraint. Whyever should we doubt it then?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    There's definitely 'momentum' with HH. As to the direction of that…………



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,511 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not sure this is going shift anything for Humphreys. Her endorsements by former politicians has totally failed to get her any traction.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The idea that a judge indicated that he would rule the presidential election nomination process unconstitutional and every single reputable media outfit went "aw shucks, we had no reporter there. There is literally no way we can report on this now" is fairly farcical.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,702 ✭✭✭jmcc


    At least they were potentially quoting from the right hearing.

    Post edited by jmcc on

    Regards…jmcc



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Agreed. No better for Harris than Martin. The likely 30% on polling day is a shocking result for someone expected to take the centre ground. Two appalling candidates when both parties had better choices on offer. McGuinness a stronger option but her withdrawal was clearly tactical as old stories on her dubious insurance claim and falsifying MEP expenses (€800,000 claimed on office expenses despite using her own property) would have forced her to drop out of the race. She's also a multi-property landlord and some dirt would have been dug up. The Ditch were already on her case in mid-July, that would have spread to MSM and she'd have been battered during the campaign.

    As I suggested before they should have pushed Simon Coveney into doing it. I think he'd have won, or at the very least come very very close. I'd be surprised if they don't select him in 2032.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,702 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Conveney does sincerity really well. He might have got a higher vote than Humphreys. The decision to restrict councillors by Harris was stupid. A wider range of candidates would have engaged more voters and especially some conservative voters (Steen) who might have transferred to Humphreys. Without those conservative and other voters, the lack of engagement breaks it down into a party support issue for Humphreys with few transfers from people who will still vote for Gavin. The lack of engagement is also showing up in the IT poll. It is like Harris simply doesn't understand the importance of transfers.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Is an endorsement by Ahern a vote-winner in 2025? 😁 Really?

    And, more significantly, is anyone paying HH any attention anymore? Have we ever seen a more staid campaign? As Una Mullally pointed out what more do we know about HH than we knew before the campaign began. Sod all it seems whereas CC has put herself about to a variety of media and communicated brilliantly. The podcast stuff has earned her a lot of youth votes and is a very smart move by her campaign team.

    .



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If there was no FF candidate (they may not have run against him) then Coveney would be polling circa 35%-40% I reckon. Had FG also facilitated Steen's place on the slate and she got 10%-15% then he'd be picking up the vast majority of her transfers. HH would have got less but a fair amount as there's got to be a significant amount who wouldn't transfer at all. The same case with Connolly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,937 ✭✭✭✭murpho999




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,702 ✭✭✭jmcc


    The conservative (Steen) vote is split across parties and it isn't simply an FG one. She would have got this vote as the only conservative. According to one poll, she would have got 22% had she been on the ballot paper though that was only with the three candidates. It was a stupid move by Harris. FF has been successful on transfers since 2011 and that's one of the reasons it is the largest party in the Dail. Having Steen would have given conservative voters a sense of engagement. And many of these conservative voters would be in the older demographics and more likely to vote. Take away that incentive to vote and those transfers disappear.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Harris has nothing to do with Steen not being on the ballot. She was going the Oireachtas route - its non FG Oireachtas members she failed to convince.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,418 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    Why in the world would FG facilitate Maria Steen - or, for that matter, anyone else - on the ballot? The party has its own candidate - the only rational approach is to throw all the possible party support behind them. If you decide to arbitrarily support someone else on the ballot, you not only weaken party unity but also run the very real risk of splitting the vote and allowing that other candidate to win. It would be a bizarre decision.

    Not to mention that as much as I dislike FG, its clear that many of their stated policies (social in particular) are in total opposition to what Steen would be peddling.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 29,807 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Indo reporting this morning that HH is the politician who was at the charity event that's being investigated by AGS.

    To be clear, she is not accused of any wrongdoing, but the article has her picture in the thumbnail alongside the headline. How many people will read beyond that - especially as it's a "premium" article.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/presidential-election/heather-humphreys-was-headline-act-at-charity-event-now-being-probed-by-gardai/a36074371.html

    I'm no fan of HH (or CC either for that matter), but to be fair to her it doesn't sit right that she's being linked in this way to the report a week out from the election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,386 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    Thought it was just CC that was being smeared by the media that is under the control of Government.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,655 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    Steen couldn't even get Michael McDowell on side.… That's a pretty big sign of how credible plenty from her own side viewed her. And this is before attack campaigns etc. Most of the electorate have likely forgotten how she was particularly snide to both same sex couples and their children back in 2015. And that's just one example I can think of that would be dug up. Steen's history would have worked entirely against her..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,252 ✭✭✭BQQ


    Bertie kicking her when she’s down

    That’s low!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,511 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I see Ruth Dudley Edwards is enlisting Eoghan Harris and is now canvassing for Connolly.😁

    In the words of Eoghan Harris, the legendary Irish political commentator, Ireland is going through “a period of mass, self-harming frenzy.

    It’s as if the electorate is not a nation but a student demonstration.”Looking at the looming democratic catastrophe that could be the Irish presidential election on Oct 24, it seems he may be right.

     “In spite of her holding domestic and foreign policy positions that run counter to our national interest, a mindless mob seems intent on landing us with Connolly as president.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/15/ireland-might-make-most-shameful-decision-yet/?fbclid=IwY2xjawNdmLZleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETExQTVCTmFmSXc2R3JtUVZmAR5GNX_kuOtf06hznwTqlrum2u4-AUOmI7eTD4eN27d0TAeuHvoRJArbbRMatA_aem_PYEOmfn8V21MpGDbqyt70A



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,418 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    You can always rely on The Telegraph for some raving hyperbole :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,632 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    The word "Legendary" is doing some heavy lifting there.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's yet another non-story in an election that has now died a death.

    For the record the CC smears came from FG and its supporters. Backfired in a major way so hopefully "lessons have been learned.' 😁😁



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Fantastic, an overseas non-voter lecturing people in the Torygraph. That'll change things. 😁



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Anyone received their polling card yet? I usually get mine a fortnight before but no sign yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,397 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Extraordinary arrogance from both Harris and Martin. They thought that by keeping all other candidates out of the race that the electorate would quite happily vote their candidates by default.

    Harris in particular is walking on thin ice. His treatment of the Kanturk woman and Harvey Sheratt's parents was appalling and made him toxic. A poor showing in the last election and now a potential defeat of his candidate to Catherine Connolly of all people should be a firing offence.

    This is Ireland though, where grotesque incompetents like Simon Harris are rewarded.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,702 ✭✭✭jmcc


    If there was ever a post that summed up the problem that FG has at the moment, it is this.

    The simple answer is transfers.

    Steen voters are conservative. They are older and tend to vote FF and FG. Get them out to vote and they might vote Steen #1 and Humphreys #2. Those transfers would make a difference.

    FF has been good at playing the transfers game and has managed to partially recover from 2011. How did it do that? Transfers. From where did these transfers come? FG. FF knows how to play the transfers game. FG does not and blocking those other candidates blocked potential transfers. Apart from the poll toppers in a GE, everything depends on transfers. Against a combined Left, Humphreys needed all the transfers she could muster. Rejecting those transfers and basically giving those conservative voters a reason NOT to vote was incredibly stupid but par for the course for Harris.

    Regards…jmcc



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