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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Generally I consider when someone calls someone else a neo-fascist, particularly a Nobel Peace Prize winner, it is incumbent up on them to back that up.

    The fight for freedom from despotic regimes can lead to complicated alliances. I don't care if a democratic activist in Venezuela makes a phone call to Trump. I do care if a President of Ireland considers Maduro to be a legitimate leader.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Aras25

    Connolly 36
    Humphreys 25
    Gavin 12
    undecided 27

    After Gavin eliminated:
    Connolly 39
    Humphreys 31

    W/o undecideds:
    Connolly 56
    Humphreys 44



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I have a feeling that CC will be a loose cannon in the Aras.

    To some, Michael D is a loose cannon, but at least he points it in the right direction. I think CC has already shown she can point it any direction, like Germany, for example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭MFPM


    So dishonest. she didn't make a phone call, she dedicated her prize to him, she has been negotiating with him to assist in her coup in Venezulea promising access to the oil resources in return, like the good old days of US control in LA…her fellow NPP recipient Kissinger I'm sure is smiling from whatever hell he's found himself!

    Your post vindicates my point re your inner Roosevelt….

    Oh BTW…here's your champion….

    image.png

    and…

    Machado.PNG


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmcc


    That's going to make the Fianna Fail Cairde dinner less palatable.

    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They’ll be flicking their peas at Martin.
    Seriously thought they’d get steamrolled race would be closer tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭corkie


    Post edited by corkie on

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Just saw that. After JG distributed (excl undecided) CC 55.7% and HH 44.3% - still along way to go and the media will up their game again but if this holds, it will be a stunning result. All the negative framing, the smearing, the disningenuos reporting…



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    This does not make someone a "neo-fascist".

    Do you agree with Connolly's support for Maduro? That you refer to the pro-democracy activists as attempting a coup suggests so anyway.

    This is aligning perfectly with Connolly's "anti West" politics - doesn't matter a damn how vindictive or cruel a dictator is as long as they are anti-West aligned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmcc


    "The online survey of 1,001 people was conducted on the dates between 2 to 7 October."

    Gavin pulled out on the 5th. Too many major events happening in that sample period.

    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmcc


    It is the survey period and the initial assumptions (3 candidates) that are problematic. Gavin pulled out when most of the survey period was complete. Gavin is also still on the ballot paper. It may be necessary to wait for the Irish Times poll for more reliable indications with just the two main candidates.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,710 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Still a huge number of undecided. Are they largely people who would normally swing left, or at least liberal, but find Connolly too radical and flaky? Could enough of them plump for Humphries at the last minute to sneak it for her?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,715 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    The credibility attributed to polls is incredible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭corkie


    Red C poll is out, would be interested in your analysis of same?

    https://archive.ph/kGy3r

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,456 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    The irony of this post ^^😂

    No I was watching Vincent Browne show as usual. Literally from the Rabbitte's mouth hence my joking remark about you educating me ! You can drop the smart replies now . I interpreted the remark same as many others who heard it . Firsthand .

    Where did you do your research ?

    Post edited by Goldengirl on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,538 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Transfers are never 100% either. The Don't Knows are still a bit high. It is the survey period and Gavin's withdrawal that are the more obvious problems. Most of the responses may have been collected when Gavin was still in the race. The second preferences on those responses would also have been collected in that time.

    Without an FF candidate in the election, how many of those Gavin voters would bother voting in the election? How could the transfers be reliably weighted for that?

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭MFPM


    First of all, the important news tonight for the likes of you… CC 55.7% and HH 44.3% 😊

    Secondly,

    This does not make someone a "neo-fascist".

    No,but, it makes her an appaling person who supports the ritual slaughter of innocent civilians, starving children, mass displacement, arrest and torture…some of the best traditions of her type in LA…interesting to see you take no issue with this….again channelling your inner Roosevelt.

    Do you agree with Connolly's support for Maduro? 

    Did she 'support' Maduro,or did she critique the sanctions vs Venezuela and the gov recognising a self appointed president?

    This is aligning perfectly with Connolly's "anti West" politics

    Yeah, yeah, I disagreed with the US invading Iraq, but, but, you're just 'anti American', I've listened to this nonsense for years, it's as dishonest as it is inaccurate.

    That you refer to the pro-democracy activists as attempting a coup suggests so anyway.

    You think Trump is blowing boats out of the water for the craic? Are you following what's going on at all…Of course after his 2019 debacle he has to be careful no matter how much Machuda wants it!

    doesn't matter a damn how vindictive or cruel a dictator is as long as they are anti-West aligned.

    I think you're confusing me with the general approach of the West…..I mean, have you been watching the slaughter in Gaza, FFS?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Agree.

    One good thing is Connolly is well ahead. Had Humphreys got closer it might have stalled momentum and put her on the backfoot.

    All to play for but it is advantage CC and hers to lose.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Bit of a spin by SBP, not surprising though. The story is CC after the week she had with the MSM hounding her. Hopefully, she can hod this until the 24th.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 55,996 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    I knew Martin's endorsement of HH would benefit Connolly. Talk about the kiss of death.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,008 ✭✭✭Homelander


    If Catherine Connolly wasn't so crazily illogically anti-Ukraine support she'd be soaring ahead.

    Most people don't particularly care about political leaning in the role, they care about how that person is suited to represent Ireland as a figurehead internationally.

    The fact that she cannot, and refuses to answer basic questions like "Is Russia a threat to European democracy", "Do you accept Putin doesn't want peace, he wants victory over Ukraine", etc, while completely disingenously both-siding the situation and ranting about NATO and military industrial complexes is an absurdly huge red flag for many people.

    Catherine ran rings around Heather and Jim in the debates, and there's no doubt whatsoever she's twice as intelligent, articulate, passionate and genuine.

    But her stance on Ukraine and the threat posed by Russia is absurdly out of touch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,890 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Seems odd to have polling concluding 4 days before publication - surely they’d be able to poll Monday to Wednesday, or even Thursday, for publication on Sat night



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,890 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    The polling stopped 2 days before Martha said he’d vote for Humphries.

    And you still try to pretend you’re a journalist?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭New Scottman


    I am naturally nosey.

    If I see a conversation between people on Facebook and one of them says "I'll PM you", I will jump in and ask "What did the PM say?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭harryharry25




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,715 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    "No I was watching Vincent Browne show as usual."

    Well you should have been watching The Week in Politics' with Sean O'Rourke

    (1) Pat Rabbitte "Isn't that what you tend to do during an election?" - YouTube

    O'rourke: You didn't go into all that detail before the election, you kept it really simple "protect child benefit vote labour"

    Rabbite: Yeah well I mean isn't that what you tend to do during an election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 55,996 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,881 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    The polling would suggest Humphreys is failing to appeal outside of her base, she was hitting 22% in the RedC poll a month ago with eight other candidates but as they whittle down she isn't making much gains, the 25% today with two and a half in the poll is still below the 27% Mairead McGuinness had from a full field back in July.

    She seems to be struggling to convert FF voters at 45% and the biggest surprise from the poll today was only 18% of Independent voters intend to vote for Humphreys. Those are the signs of a marmite candidate beloved among her own but failing to resonate outside.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Whichever campaign strategist figures out what those ‘don’t knows’ want wins the goose. If they vote at all.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,456 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Browne questioned it afterwards . Rabbitte tried to say it was misconstrued but it wasn't . That clip there captures his backtracking perfectly . Rabbitte was caught out being smart and tried to change the story . Anyone who watches those programmes saw it and Labour lost out because of it .

    Do you really think Labour voters would happily accept Vincent Browne's remarks over what Rabbitte said if they thought they weren't true ?

    Were you watching the shows CT or are you only quoting from links on You tube where Rabbitte has practiced his ' explanation '?



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