Immigration and Ireland - MEGATHREAD *Mod Note Added 02/09/25*

But there seems to be a tendency on this thread, and the wider discussion on migration, to believe that immigration is an entirely independent concept that operates outside the realms of all other socioeconomic phenonema. What I mean by that is that people seem to think that the formula is as simple as this:

(1) There is high demand for housing and migrants form part of that demand;

(2) Therefore by simply reducing the number of migrants you reduce demand, and the measures you take and outcomes of reducing migration (and reducing it so much that it has a material effect on housing demand and prices) will have no side effects that will cause the gap in demand to be filled by another group.

So let's say we greatly reduce migration tomorrow and housing demand from migrants drops and (as people on this thread would hypothesise), prices drop. What happens then? Well, i find it hard to believe that you wouldn't then have a situation where a whole strata of Irish people previously inhibited from buying suddenly step in to buy — hence new demand. And if reducing migration improves overall quality of life for Irish people as many on here would argue it will, then that presumably means not as many people leaving and more demand from a new cohort of slightly younger buyers — and then they start having kids.

So I dunno, maybe you find my arguments simplistic but I don't think all of this is a simple subtraction equation where you minus some migrants and the housing demand (and need to build) automatically falls with it.

The Irish housing market doesn't work like other markets.

During the peak of the boom when we were knocking out nearly 100,000 homes a year, house prices were at their peak.

House prices in the last 50 odd years have only gone up, apart from the crash and for a small period in the 80s.

The idea if you stop net migration in the morning and doubled house builds it would make them cheaper is a complete myth.

Housing wealth accounts for a significant portion of Ireland's total household wealth, with a Central Bank report from Q1 2025 stating that housing assets made up 68.5% of total net wealth. In Q3 2024, the percentage was 67%, a figure that aligns with the statement provided. This indicates that property ownership is a central component of financial wealth for Irish households.

Too much money tied up in property by Jane and Joe soap.

It's one of the main reasons large housing projects receive mass objections and usually end up getting down sized, if built at all.

A fairly obviously contradictory post which suggests you are not arguing in good faith on this thread.

In the first part of your post you say that increasing supply does not make housing cheaper.

In the second part you talk about large housing projects being objected to by "Jane and Joe soap" in order to maintain the value of their wealth tied up in housing, which would be at risk if the development went ahead [and increased supply].

Which is it Boggles?

I'm afraid this is simply not true. If we look at a chart of house prices adjusted for inflation going back to the 70s, you can see that until the bubble started, house prices were fairly flat. There was even a period in the 80s when they fell. The 80s were a time of economic stagnation when many people left the country lowering demand. Hence the fall in prices.

But demand was also increasing due to loosening of credit rules and the formation of an asset bubble. It is not just supply but also demand that determines prices. But increased supply will still have downward pressure on prices just as inward migration has downward pressure on wages.

An example of this would be the rapid price rise since about 2011. We do have increased house building, high by European standards, and this is providing downward pressure on prices, but this is not sufficient to counter-balance the upward pressure due to increased demand which is due to population increase which, in turn, is mainly due to inward migration.

You also said that over the last five or six decades prices have always risen. This is not true as the inflation adjusted graph has shown.

The Irish market is subject to supply and demand and suffers price bubbles just like any other market.

It's all well and good that we are 142nd in poplulation density globally, yet the fact is that we do not have the infrastructure in certain, crucial areas to even cope with our current population.

You talk about building outwards instead of upwards (I agree on that) and that we need a 'cultural shift and strategic change'. How long will that take to happen? Will it happen before the population rises by another million?

The fact of the matter is that right now, sewer systems in multiple counties are running at or over capacity with regular discharges of untreated sewerage into the sea and into rivers (it happens in my local river any time there's heavy rain). Another fact is that new housing developments have to be limited right now because we do not have sufficient drinking water supplies.

Now, we can talk aspirationally about shifting culturally, a new urbanised Ireland and other soundbites but I prefer to deal in reality and the facts are that we do not have the infrastructure in certain areas (housing supply, sewers, water treatment, drinking water) to deal with the forecast population growth (which the experts, not me, say will be driven by immigration).

To me, the only logical solution is to try to limit population growth until the necessary infrastructure is in place, however long that may take. And as that population growth is driven by immigration, that's the only way we can slow it down. If we just plough on as we are it's a recipe for disaster, not just for everyone living here already battling over limited resources, but also for the environment.

You can always depend on The Journal to jump all over anything to do with deportations.

Apparently the AS are feeling threatened about the money offer even though its a voluntary scheme.

Best bit was an American who is claiming asylum because he thought ICE might deport him so he high tailed it over here to soft mark Ireland.

Increased immigration increase in house prices .

€19.5bn 😐️

Economist David McWilliams’s podcast episode “What is Radical Politics?” (published Oct 1–2, 2025). The episode and its description explicitly discuss the idea that the political class has moved away from voters on cultural issues — the same argument shown in the viral short. Talks about immigration. Argues theres an education divide, and that on some cultural issues the Centrists are themselves radical, IF they are 'far away from the average dude'. Believes that's part of the rise of Reform UK and Trump. Says that in situations where the so called Centrists are outside of what the "broad swathes" of the population feel, they are the actual radicals. Believes that's part of the rise of Reform UK and Trump.

shows.acast.com+1

What's annoying here though is that the goalposts of the topic are being shifted from my original point. The argument was being made that immigration causes environmental problems because, essentially, we are building houses to meet demand caused by immigration. My point was that the demand is likely to still be there regardless.

You're also attributing opinions to me here that I never said. At no point did I ever say that "there is little point in reducing immigration [..] because all that would happen is that Irish people who could not previously purchase can now do so and form families". I said that my post was based on the assumption (as people on this thread hypothesise — those were the exact words I used) that if there was a fall in immigration dramatic there would be a drop in prices that was enough to make housing affordable for a whole new strata of younger Irish buyers.

I am challenging that assumption because:

(1) It is an almighty assumption based on any assessment on the general direction of house prices in Ireland which has only been knocked off course a couple of times due to major global economic events.

(2) A reduction in immigration that would actually put a dent in house prices would have to be quite dramatic indeed, and there is no guarantee that such a dramatic reduction would not have pretty major side effects that could offset the price reduction — because ……

(3) ..to start, around one fifth of the construction workforce is made up of migrants so straight off the bat you are risking a reduction in supply. That's before you even get to the point where the migrants who are actually capable of competing with the Ireland-born workforce for housing are generally going to be migrants who have come here to work and contribute — they will be migrants working in services or in key industries in the Irish economic model. We then also have the point that in reality, 56% of the migrant population live in private rental accommodation and are not buyers.

There is nothing here to say that "there is no point in reducing immigration". It is simply to say that people should simply manage their expectations of what can and will be achieved by it.

I dont agree with the states denial of asylum in this case. It seems a legitimate reason to claim asylum.

Having said that I think many asylum claims are not actually about fleeing persecution or war.

https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-first-minister-john-swinney-joins-call-for-pause-on-new-asylum-arrivals-13448188

Left wing SNP first minister of Scotland calling for pause on asylum arrivals

They’re right wing racists now? Is that how it works?
There can’t be any other possible conclusion if you were listening to some in here

The figure of 160,000 to 180,000 is the cumulative amount of bogus asylum-seekers who have arrived here over the last two decades.

Most of their applications (correctly) failed, although most were allowed to stay here.

A very, very small share of the 160k-180k have been deported.

The costs imposed on taxpayers have been enormous.