Presidential Election.

That would mean that one of two remaining utterly useless candidates would ultimately be elected. I'd rather not thanks!!

Given the caliber of the current ones you wouldn't go far wrong with nearest Montessori. On a serious note we should be very vocally demanding that out TD's and CoCo's should be a lot more amenable to giving their support to non mainstream candidates.

I can only give my opinion on what is happening RE the bookies, and the election polling as a whole. Its kind of hard to explain this, but im gonna try, and happy to receive criticism. The nature of the election has totally changed now that there are only two candidates available to choose from. I predict a low turn out, probably the lowest in a while, and i truly believe this advantages CC, as opposed to HH.

Its a longtime since studied any of this stuff. To keep it simple, i will only use 4 categories. Its all based on my opinion/speculation too, so happy to receive criticisms or disagreement.

FOR Catherine Connolly

Her base, those who agree with her views, and who have enthusiastically connected with her campaign. The base in particular, love her foreign policy stance, regardless of what experts may say. Broadly speaking, this group have connected with Connolly in a positive way, and support her no matter what. Some within this catagory, might indulge in speculations that the media/other-parties, are 'ganging up' on Connolly, which only serves to deepen their level of support. None of this is a surprise as Connolly is a vocally exciting candidate, and if you are a CC voter, your excitement will increase as the weeks roll on.

• likeliness to turn out and vote: HIGH - they get to vote for THEIR PREFERRED candidate, which is good incentive to turn out and take part

AGAINST Catherine Connolly

Probably a large tent of voters with competing views. People, like me, who cant get behind her foreign policy stance. Other groups who would be more conservative in their views on both societal and economic policy. They have a negative view of Connolly, as being unsuitable for the role, but the degree to which they think her opponent is suitable varies wildly, especially in a two horse race. They may not have connected with Humphreys, so much as, they dont want Connolly.

• likeliness to turn out and vote: Medium - dependent on their feelings for Humphreys, so this is less incentive to actually turn up. Some may turn up to BLOCK CC, but again, it wouldnt be as serious an incentive, depending on their feelings for HH.

FOR Heather Humphreys

Humphreys base, and generally conservatives, this group overlaps with those that are against Connolly. But we would probably all admit that, the Humphreys campaign is rather low key. She is an able politician, that shows tactical awareness, but HH is not an exciting candidate. Her road to getting on the ballot could be summed up by stating that the preferred candidate, who everyone wanted, pulled out. Her campaign is well organized but we could debate whether there is any real 'energy' around it. Its also likely that Humphreys receives a blow from todays budget, that even her support base might be susceptible to.

• likeliness to turn out and vote: Medium/HIGH, but the level of support is lower than Connolly, no question. Humphreys is not exciting at all, and i think we could agree on that.

AGAINST Heather Humphreys

Another large tent of voters, which Connolly will hope to capitalize on. But a catagory filled with inconsistant and competing views. The 'never Fine Gael block', purest Fianna Fail voters, as well as those who always vote against large paties. Being a low key candidate, even Humphreys detractors lack energy. The degree to which they will turn out to vote depends on whether they like Connolly or support her views. Not as vocal as those critics of CC, but equally, may have decided not to take part at all- therefore, possibly no shows on the day

• likeliness to turn out and vote: LOW- while some in this catagory will turn out simply to block HH, many may simply stay at home. This catagory probably lacks more energy, compared to all of the above.

Being a two horse race, it becomes a question of backing one, against the other. If you feel one is not suitable, that doesnt necessarily mean you will vote for the opponent. Someone in this position, with regard to CC for example; Will a voter such as this bother to turn up? If the polls push Connolly ahead, they might not bother doing so, which is why i suspect low turnout will be a factor. 'Least Worst Option' elections tend to lack energy, unless something serious is at stake. And its debatable whether an Irish Presidential Election is seen as important by the electorate.

My gut feeling is that CC remains a divisive candidate, but she remains supported by a large enthusiastic base. Compared to HH, who is less divisive but also lacks energy and excitement.

Anyway, happy to discuss, this is just how i see it.

There are plenty of FF voters who would refuse to vote FG at any and all costs and that's where CC can make ground. Whether those voters vote anti-FG or just simply refuse to vote helps her. But I think they are largely in the minority of FF voters

I would be very wary of giving my support to non-mainstream candidates because it's not always clear who is in their orbit. For example, Marie Steen sounded reasonable in some of her interviews, but it now turns out she has a connection to the Burks through her sister. As I said, the non-mainstream candidates themselves might sound entirely reasonable, but who is in their orbit?

Demographics come into play also but with a hell of a lot of caveats

From Irish Times 2020:
“Not only are there are more people in Ireland aged 50 and older than there are aged between 18 and 34, but also older voters are more likely to turn out on election day. For every vote cast by those aged under 35, there are roughly two votes cast by those aged 50 and older.”

But- also from the same article:

“Between 2016 and this year, Sinn Féin saw an increase in vote share across all age groups, driving the number of first preference votes it received up by more than 240,000 – from 295,319 to 535,573.The exit poll finds that Sinn Féin’s highest vote share was among those aged under 35, with 32 per cent casting their first preference vote for the party (up from 21 per cent in 2016).“

So, whilst we could argue that an older voter turnout on the day would favour HH- we have an active younger demographic supporting SF who will likely come out and vote and we can see by social media alone, that CC has a huge following - and that’s before exploring other parties on the left who also support CC.

In contrast, HH doesn’t appear to set anyone alight - shes essentially lost the support of transfers from JD in the main- and a lot of people aren’t happy with the government - coupled with a split vote in the older demographic anyway, I don’t see her within an asses roar of getting elected president. Older voters will likely vote for her in the main and older voters are known for attending polling stations - but I’m not convinced as many older FF voters will attend this time around given what’s happened

The only way, is if FF/FG voters come out enmass because they’re repulsed with the idea of CC winning - they might be repulsed, but I’m not sure that repulsion will translate into getting off their arse - I think the most common saying of this election will be:

“Think I’ll sit this one out”

I think CC will win by a very significant margin

My point is more to do with the idea that non-mainstream candidates might be better, which is highly debatable.

It's a valid point, she comes across as a very competent individual but unfortunately some of her views would make it difficult for myself and probably many others to vote for her. What about Gareth Sheridan in terms of something completely different ?

popcorn time 🍿

I agree I think that’s a given alright - I’d say you’d be hard pushed to find a HH voter in colleges amongst the crowds of CC supporters