Presidential Election 2025

According to Mary Regan in the Indo, TDs are already discussing when and how Martin will be removed.

Let's see if others follow. Think that the FF PP meeting is tomorrow night.

Barry Cowen just called for a full and frank review of FF's selection process.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/07/presidential-race-live-updates-jim-gavin-fallout/

I see three options

You support CC or HH and just give them your first preference vote (and second preference is probably not needed anymore in this case, but you can give it if you like)

If you don't care who wins between HH and CC or you want a protest or spoilt vote you can vote Gavin only, and do not give a second preference to anyone.

If you still want a say in the HH , CC selection, you can still vote Gavin (as a statement) and give your second vote to CC or HH.

This is fully under control of every voter as part of the STV we have.

Oh I guess you can spoil your vote in the tradition way also by voting for Dustin etc.

On the whole it seems like this issue could have been handled and perhaps sorted out without causing such an embarrassment for JG and the party imo. Even the wronged person said they "couldn't get a hold of him". He could have played it off as being a busy man, and didn't receive the messages at the time, but once he realised the situation many years later he made it right with interest etc. Not that it wouldn't have been a bit of a scandal, but it would have been able to be navigated imo.

I get the feeling that because the polls were against him anyway the heads of the party decided to throw him under the bus, but didn't realise they would stumble under with him.

I can only give my opinion on what is happening RE the bookies, and the election polling as a whole. Its kind of hard to explain this, but im gonna try, and happy to receive criticism. The nature of the election has totally changed now that there are only two candidates available to choose from. I predict a low turn out, probably the lowest in a while, and i truly believe this advantages CC, as opposed to HH.

Its a longtime since studied any of this stuff. To keep it simple, i will only use 4 categories. Its all based on my opinion/speculation too, so happy to receive criticisms or disagreement.

FOR Catherine Connolly

Her base, those who agree with her views, and who have enthusiastically connected with her campaign. The base in particular, love her foreign policy stance, regardless of what experts may say. Broadly speaking, this group have connected with Connolly in a positive way, and support her no matter what. Some within this catagory, might indulge in speculations that the media/other-parties, are 'ganging up' on Connolly, which only serves to deepen their level of support. None of this is a surprise as Connolly is a vocally exciting candidate, and if you are a CC voter, your excitement will increase as the weeks roll on.

• likeliness to turn out and vote: HIGH - they get to vote for THEIR PREFERRED candidate, which is good incentive to turn out and take part

AGAINST Catherine Connolly

Probably a large tent of voters with competing views. People, like me, who cant get behind her foreign policy stance. Other groups who would be more conservative in their views on both societal and economic policy. They have a negative view of Connolly, as being unsuitable for the role, but the degree to which they think her opponent is suitable varies wildly, especially in a two horse race. They may not have connected with Humphreys, so much as, they dont want Connolly.

• likeliness to turn out and vote: Medium - dependent on their feelings for Humphreys, so this is less incentive to actually turn up. Some may turn up to BLOCK CC, but again, it wouldnt be as serious an incentive, depending on their feelings for HH.

FOR Heather Humphreys

Humphreys base, and generally conservatives, this group overlaps with those that are against Connolly. But we would probably all admit that, the Humphreys campaign is rather low key. She is an able politician, that shows tactical awareness, but HH is not an exciting candidate. Her road to getting on the ballot could be summed up by stating that the preferred candidate, who everyone wanted, pulled out. Her campaign is well organized but we could debate whether there is any real 'energy' around it. Its also likely that Humphreys receives a blow from todays budget, that even her support base might be susceptible to.

• likeliness to turn out and vote: Medium/HIGH, but the level of support is lower than Connolly, no question. Humphreys is not exciting at all, and i think we could agree on that.

AGAINST Heather Humphreys

Another large tent of voters, which Connolly will hope to capitalize on. But a catagory filled with inconsistant and competing views. The 'never Fine Gael block', purest Fianna Fail voters, as well as those who always vote against large paties. Being a low key candidate, even Humphreys detractors lack energy. The degree to which they will turn out to vote depends on whether they like Connolly or support her views. Not as vocal as those critics of CC, but equally, may have decided not to take part at all- therefore, possibly no shows on the day

• likeliness to turn out and vote: LOW- while some in this catagory will turn out simply to block HH, many may simply stay at home. This catagory probably lacks more energy, compared to all of the above.

Being a two horse race, it becomes a question of backing one, against the other. If you feel one is not suitable, that doesnt necessarily mean you will vote for their opponent. Someone in this position, with regard to CC for example; Will a voter such as this bother to turn up? If the polls push Connolly ahead, they might not bother doing so, which is why i suspect low turnout will be a factor. 'Least Worst Option' elections tend to lack energy, unless something serious is at stake. And its debatable whether an Irish Presidential Election is seen as important by the electorate.

My gut feeling is that CC remains a divisive candidate, but she remains supported by a large enthusiastic base. Compared to HH, who is less divisive but also lacks energy and excitement.

Anyway, happy to discuss, this is just how i see it.

Nothing like a good review/report to keep FF ticking away....they love a good report

The report will likely finalise around the time that FF is handing the reigns to FG, and MM is heading to retirement.

Receipts? No all misdemeanours are of a financial nature, your jumping to the wrong conclusions, keep researching !

That is what I have started thinking. Some FF diehards who are livid at Martin. Might not bother voting. Or go for Connolly out of spite alone.

I don’t see HH winning - I’m gonna stick my neck out and say CC by a margin of at least 1.25 votes to 1- personally I think it will be a lot higher than that

The groundswell of support across the “left”, coupled with a lot of government dissatisfaction coupled with a likely reduced FF turnout coupled with a now greatly reduced likelihood of significant transfers from JG to HH- means it’s CC’s for the taking

I understand where you’re coming from but -SF have a huge under 35 level of support who actively participate in turning up at the polls - my personal belief is that they are more likely than not to turn up at this election - and are overwhelming CC supporters -on the other hand, the “older” demographic , whilst generally 2:1 the under 35s, are split - and with JG gone, who knows if they’ll even turn up - also, you would imagine that at least some FF voters will switch to CC on this occasion and especially the younger voters

Very carefully worded. It isn't a direct attack on Martin and Chambers. They are the ones responsible for the process.

We should be looking for higher standards than that TBF. I know FFG operate that way, buts it's really not good enough anymore.

Donation to charity FFS. It's 16years…saying oops and making a donation is just not acceptable from anyone wanting to be president.

one thing is fairly clear after the last few days...FF haven't changed a bit. Still the same old gombeen party of bertie and co .