General Irish politics discussion thread

Linda seems to be a big fan of Isreal.

https://dublinpeople.com/news/southside/articles/2024/11/20/sdcc-israel-vote/?amp=1

Independent Ireland councillor Linda De Courcy said “there are currently 70 conflicts going on around the world; what is happening in Israel and Palestine is horrendous, but the same things are happening around the world.”

“There are babies being slaughtered all around the world; why are we all just focused on one state?”

“In fairness, they were attacked and they still have hostages that have still not been released,” and called the motion “a virtue-signalling waste of time.”

“I don’t see the point in having these conversations when we can’t do anything about it.”

Why do Sinn Fein keep on banging the drum for a border poll? That's not the way it works. You can't just agitate for one. Does the GFA not stipulate that a border poll will be called by the NI secretary at the point they judge that such a poll is likely to give a unification result?

A cursory look at polling data suggests little to no chance of a border poll returning a unification decision, so did Sinn Fein forget the above GFA clause? This one, to remind everyone :-

“The Secretary of State shall exercise the power under this section to make an order directing the holding of a poll if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”

Long since been decreed by the courts (Raymond McCord case) that a SoS is not restrained in calling a poll. Summary of the findings:

The court said that it is for Secretary of State for Northern Ireland “to decide what is, or is not, relevant to the decision-making process depending on the prevailing circumstances”. The judges ruled that neither the 1998 Belfast Agreement nor the Northern Ireland Act contained any such requirement that a policy be published by the Secretary of State. The judges said that the decision as to who should vote “is also a political judgment as to what is acceptable or appropriate in our community”.

Such considerations might include an evaluation of potential factors which might impact on the poll. Such things may be changes in social attitudes in Ireland and Northern Ireland, taxation structures in both jurisdictions, Brexit and cross-border trading in Ireland. This might include an evaluation of agreements made between the European Union and the United Kingdom.

For instance the SoS could decide that on foot of the Irish government publishing a plan/White Paper that a BP is 'likely' to pass. He/she can base their decision on a range of factors, demographics, electoral results, surveys, and social indicators or some other political reasoning.

The point is, it is not just about 'opinion polls'.

Hence the calls for a Border Poll, because that forces Dublin to come up with a plan/White Paper.
The calls for Dublin to begin that process are coming from a wide range of sources not just SF anymore.

NI Court of Appeal: ‘Constitutional value of flexibility’ not maintained by publication of border poll policy | Irish Legal News

Summary of judgment - In re Raymond McCord (Border Poll).pdf

But if the polls show that a border poll doesn't have any real chance of having even a close vote - is it not better to wait? (I don't actually know where the polling currently is - if it was close then they should go ahead)

SF call for a BP on the basis that the SoS can decide at any time to call one - simple as that. And because they know that the calling of a BP will force the government to come up with a plan.

I pay partial attention to UK politics and enough to know that anyone saying they are expert in predicting how things will go there is deluded. Reading the General British Politics thread is enough to tell you that much.

That is your opinion.

Plenty of others out there about how things might change very quickly.

“The working group is not pushing for a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future in any way. But we are saying that such a vote might be legally required in the not-too-distant future.

Calling a Border poll without clear plan would be unwise, experts warn – The Irish Times

There is now just a six percentage points separating those who’d vote ‘Yes’ (36%) to unity if a border poll were held tomorrow and those who’d vote ‘No’ (42%).

A year before there was a 12 percentage point difference between the two groups and just six years previously the margin stood at 33 points.“A change in the views of 3% of respondents from ‘No’ to ‘Yes’ (thus making both 39%) could present cause for consideration by the secretary of state,”

Narrowing margin on constitutional question to bring border poll pressure on secretary of state – The Irish News

There is no requirement on the SoS to say we are having a poll in three weeks, 

as you say yourself,

 

he is not constrained,

 so he could easily say, I have decided, subject to a credible plan, to hold a border poll in three years time, because the opinion polls and election results are such that it is likely to pass.

Quite simply this is a guess, some might say, a hopeful guess.

Neither are sound policy for not preparing for change.

We have not learned from Brexit, we will end up rushing something that did not need to be rushed.

And that is the increasing pressure the government are coming under from more than SF. Deny as you might.

But a border poll is ultimately dependent on British politics, not Irish.

This is the naïve thinking that pervades among some.
The physical 'calling' of the poll is in the gift of the British, that is a given.
Anyone who thinks it will be called without consultation with Dublin is a fool tbh.

Dublin beginning to plan will be the signal. The back channel work will begin and an announcement is made. Watch the ire and foot - stamping from the anti-UI folk if a Plan is mentioned or if the government begin one. They know only too well what it means and where it will end - a BP.

And we might only be a change of leader away from that happening.