Presidential Election 2025

maybe years ago he could have denied and spoofed his way out of it. Not today. Too much chances to be caught lying. I think it’s clear that he knew he did wrong here, and that greed and dishonesty would be seen very badly for him. And here we are!

Who benefits most from Gavin's withdrawal?

Any data which indicates who his voters are most likely to switch to?

Not that bookies odds are that sigificant in elections, it's interesting that they have CC as favourite. I tend to see this as HHs to lose now.

CC was the best candidate before JG and remains the best candidate, but based on yesterday's poll, even if 60% of those expressing a first pref for JG switch to HH, she'll essentially be there or thereabouts with CC, and the poll suggested that a majority of the undecided are leaning to the right, so inevitably going to HH.

Obviously, now the race is between just two, and all the talk of transfers, etc., is redundant. Will FF now directly call for their supporters to vote for FG - that's not without its risks? How do the media react now? I think this will make the type of disingenuous campaign by sections of the pol corrs slightly more diffcult, (it can also change the dynamic of the remaining debates on radio and TV) if they are seen to go after CC as they have, it may have the opposite affect - the poll yesterday and CC's number perhaps show a decent resistance to the media framing around CC.

This week, the budget and leadership of MM may take over as the key focus for a few days.

It's hard to know what's going to happen to MM, speculation about the future of the Gov is wide of the mark but MMs poition must be under threat and it's very hard to see how he can some back from this debacle - he gets a very easy ride in the media, the media cover him like his politicial career began in 2011 and he's some kind of saviour.

FF doesn't have great alternatives. Chambers is very wooden and is reasonably inexperienced. I’m not sure O'Callaghan has the support and would probably mean a shift to the right, a female leader would make sense, but they've so few women at all, that's not likely, Billy Kelleher - do they really want that? Anyway, for the moment, those of us who oppose FF can sit back and revel in their discomfort.

Loads of questions, very few answers right now.

I don’t personally think any of them are suitable at all.
I am seriously thinking for the first time ever of just spoiling my vote and writing none of the above on it.

I see protest vote for Gavin, he wins, immediately resigns and new election called.

Connolly now at 8/13 on Paddy Power with Humphreys at 5/4. No sign of a "Next Leader of FF" option yet.

Martin surrounded himself with yes-men and yes-women. This is all his fault for pushing his mini-me choice as FF candidate. A basic due diligence check on Gavin would have identified and fixed this problem. The Sindo/Indo did real reporting in this election. Well done, Beaker and co.

Wonder if this story will bring down Martin too?

I'd say SF, FF and FG would all be happy at a do-over.

With no FF candidate in the election, will FF voters not bother voting?

Could this simply become a combined Left versus FG election?

There is little difference between FF and FG anyway, other than different dynasties whose ancestors might have taken different sides in the civil war. They should merge. End the split.

Forcing FF and FG to merge seems to be a long-term SF strategy. It has already forced FF and FG into government together. FF under Martin has lost its identity and become FG-lite. It has also surrendered centre/centre Left support to SF. Endorsing Humphreys would be the wrong move for an FF that wants to retain its identity as FF rather than FFG.

Well they elected celebrities before like Nina Carberry. Different sport but still.

It's very clear listening to Morning Ireland, Gavin was lying and in reality so were FF. Yo'd have thought FF wold have learnt lessons from it's sordid past with reps personal finances.

Billy Kelliher with a leadership in mind not going in fully on Martin..