Presidential Election 2025

A lot of your post read well and had a lot of truth to it. But you implied that the media have a concerted campaign against Connolly. With the “media compliance” line then tell posters to remove there “political bias”. That unintended contradiction amused me.

The truth is the media go anywhere there is a story. Connolly by her “activist” nature makes stories. By her unfiltered, not very streetwise way of speaking. How she frames issues in her worldview is very naive and lacks political shrewdness.

Connolly I suspect is not winning in the polls because she speaks well or because she makes a good president. The main reason is because she inextricably attached herself to Palestine. And that is extremely popular with a cohort in Ireland who are very politically engaged. Especially the youth vote. “Compassionate diplomacy” is the CC slogan.

In contrast Gavin and HH run on platforms of different types of Irishness. Gavin’s is community based positivity. But is too nervy to sell it to the electorate when talking.

HH’s platform is building bridges cross border etc. But lacks punch and says little. Both Gavin and HH are very dull people there is nothing for the media to really go after. Nothing truly controversial.

Connolly could win an election based on her pacifism and her tying herself to the support of Palestine. Which has very little to do with the office of President itself. In my view. It is simply because it is very popular in protest politics now, and the worldwide youth vote. I have seen all the protests on euro news. The protests on Palestine are mostly young people worldwide. In Ireland the middle aged bald Paul Murphy stood out among the young faces - in the in the Irish Palestine protests.

Gavin and HH have no exciting or heart wrenching cause to attach themselves to. Connolly does. It is not as if they can start wearing 🇵🇸 pins and keffiyeh scarves. The militant protest left, and NI linked Republicans have already appropriated those. Very successfully.

Gavin probably would need a few Irish peacekeepers killed on duty. And HH could probably do with a bit of anti Protestant sentiment. A church burned down or something. Maybe a rector killed. So JG/HH could get indirect media attention. Capitalising on the public sympathy.

Both unlikely to happen and unlikely to happen before the 24th. Meanwhile Palestine is a constant. Perpetually in the news. Every Palestine flag is a Connolly vote in Ireland. Every starving child in Gaza on RTE is another potential Connolly vote.

It is a long way from Bród and Misneach wagging their tails outside the Áras.

Clearly leading the presidential race so far too.

Well she's not in favour of fox hunting, drink driving,animal cruelty and oh yeah being a member of the Orange Order.Just for balance,don't you know.😉

You keep framing CC as nuts - she is just protest left. Everything you view as a negative about her is another reason for her base to rally around her. As a Dub supporter over the years I am sure you have seen lads with Palestine/Irish tricolours on the hill. That was well before the last two years.

This year Armagh V Dublin CP it seemed like every second Armagh supporter had a Palestine flag. Trying to out do each other to show how Republican they are. The Armagh guy in front of me held up a big Palestine flag. That meant he was very Republican I suppose.
But to go to that trouble with that flags showed how politically engaged some are with the Palestine appropriation.

I know the Armagh crowd don’t have a vote in POI elections- yet. But working class areas in Dublin buy into that Palestine stuff too. As are the border counties.
There was also a scatter of Dublin support with Palestine flags even in the stands at that match I mentioned. Not as much as the Armagh crowd, granted. But still visible.

You don’t seem to grasp how attachment to, and appropriation of a cause - can unite a group. The cause does not even have to be close to home. Just compared to Irish past. Connolly is metaphorically on that flotilla to the Áras.

Nothing to do with Dublin NE community projects / task forces, or cross border inclusion. But it is Connolly’s core vote. It sells politically and is very visible.

Long way to go. But I think the ball is now in HH and JG's court. Heather can't really depend on her non confrontational strategy so far, and Gavin, well I am not sure what he can do now.

Do youngsters even watch telly much anymore? Social Media far more effective these days. SF showed that in the GE. Best party by far on social media. Clip a statement, clip a protest etc.

Gavin is fecked. He would be nearly better off calling for a transfer pact with HH.

Still shocked how nervy he is. A man who has flown planes, supposed to be trained to be calm under fire/pressure, managed and played before massive crowds. Yet shrinks when discussing politics live on tv.

I never I thought I would say even I could do better than Gavin in this campaign. That is a very low bar.

Both he and Humphreys have been coached to an inch of their lives not to say stuff, Gavin more than HH. You can see Gavin filtering his answers through what he has been told and that comes across as nervousness.
Connolly has not got the same constraints.

So far the electorate are liking the honesty. They are comfortable with it in a President.

Debate 2 starting now on RTÉ Radio 1.

I hope the presenter won't interrupt as much as the last VM1 debate. I want to hear the candidates.

Gavin being interrupted already by Lawlor after a few words.

I know.