Presidential Election 2025

Agree with some of this, but given the fact that being attacked appears to have made Catherine Connolly stronger, would Heather Humphreys not be better off avoiding the negative stuff altogether? That's what Michael D. did in 2011. She's unlucky that Jim Gavin isn't strong or coherent enough to become her attack-dog and do the dirty work for her.

The story mentions it was captured as part of the poll.

"The findings this weekend also suggested Ms Connolly has suffered minimal damage after she defended her decision in 2018 to hire a woman convicted of firearm offences."

source: https://x.com/OMathuna89/status/1974569775255720263/

Yes, October 2nd and 3rd - Thursday and Friday.

Its possible, but i think the gap is oddly wide at this stage, between CC and HH. Humphreys also needs to keep in mind too, that some of the poll may have been collected before the current news-cycle. We dont yet know the effect of said news cycle, or the earlier unforced errors from the Connolly camp. Im not suggesting that Humphreys spend the entire campaign going after CC - but certainly in debates, she could stand to attack Connolly on some of the more contentious topics.

CC is on top for now, and she could hold the lead, and win the election. But we must always keep in mind the Connolly factor. Will CC manage to get through the next 3 odd weeks, without getting into any more scrapes? Possibly? She is less than a week and a half in and she has managed to walk into minefields on many topics. For now, IMHO, the gap is wide enough so as to force HH into challenging directly.

Thats my feeling anyway

Yea no doubt, but I reckon the HH campaign is more tactically literate than her opposition in this case. I would imagine they have campaign strategists who will have a plan of attack. Not too fierce, and certainly not offensive. But firm, and designed to cause impact, followed by a positive point on her own credentials and experience.

Something like:

Criticizing CC on the Germany comments, and then a quick pivot to the cooperation that FG enjoyed with their European Partners during the bexit debacle.

Discussing the diplomatic damage that the CC's re-arming comments caused, and then a quick pivot to how well placed Ireland is, to behave as a positive diplomatic player.

Its a criticism, followed by a 'Humphreys Looks Presidential' moment

Again, just spitballing here, its all just my opinions

Heather ‘eh ing’ her way through a criticism isn’t going to work IMO

Playing into Connolly’s hands is not the way.

There won't be panic on the FG side, probably in the FF camp. 3 weeks is a good stretch, HH needs to improve her own vote by a few % and then also hover up the no 2's of JG. I think they'll mainly leave it to the media to keep following the CC story. Gavin could possibly go for her tomorrow, esp on the issue of the woman concerned attending the Eirigi meeting around the time she was employed by CC. Gavin may feel that he needs to make an impact and this would be an option.

Yea its a hail mary pass for Gavin or its over. Honestly he has nothing to lose. But i just dont see him as capable of mounting a successful comeback. I know a few Fianna Fail-ers, and they have gone from a position of cautious optimism, to being fairly agnostic and downbeat on his chances.

Im looking forward to the debate tomorrow anyway

Gavin could possibly go for her tomorrow, esp on the issue of the woman concerned attending the Eirigi meeting around the time she was employed by CC. Gavin may feel that he needs to make an impact and this would be an option.

Or it could be a choreographed FG good cop/FF bad cop strategy, if FF think Gavin has no chance now and they need to help HH however they can, even if it knocks another couple of points off Gavin for offering nothing but negativity……

Or a gun and a bottle of whiskey in a dark room.

Even if Gavin got rid of the nerves when he is talking. He is too nice.

When I came home Friday. Callan’s kicks was on the radio. Mimicking each candidate. Even the mimicked CC sounded the best. And Gavin was made to sound like the worst. Not finishing his “Sen-te-ces”. HH mocked for saying nothing much in the previous debate.

HH only needs to be asked again about her previous time in govt and she's fcuked. She couldn't answer questions coherently in any of her one to one's to date or last week's debate. She's no Robinson, McAleese or Micky D, and if the worst CC can be asked about is an ex prisoner recommended by FF hierarchy, well then she's home and hosed imo.

"A bottle of whiskey and a revolver." Vincent Browne's best line ever.

That's another problem they'll have. How do you interrupt someone so polite, considered and softly spoken, without making yourself look obscenely rude?