Presidential Election 2025

How does one become 'rehabiliated'? After they serve their sentence?

Removal from the sex offenders list is not automatic and is very rare. A judge has to order it, and clear evidence has to be presented to the court.

TLDR: There is a clear reason as to why the vast majority of sex offenders are on the sex offenders list and are precluded from working in various roles for the rest of their lives.
But you seem to think they are of no risk.

I think I'll vote for Humphreys. I dont totally rule out Gavin though. I evaluate his performance in the debate better than the pundits.

At least Connolly is giving us all something to talk about, as opposed to the other two duds. Whatever you think of her, Connolly is driving the debate.

I'm sure Micheál and FF would love to milk the story more, but they can't really as Micheál can't have a go back at O'Cuiv having previously praised his prisoner work.

The Gardai can't get involved to confirm or deny.
So unless there is more stuff out there in the way of some proof the story has nowhere to go.

Latest Paddy Power odds for next president:

HH = Evs

CC = 13/8

JG = 4/1

The gap has widened between HH and CC and JG has slid even further away. Looks like JG's race could nearly be ran 3 weeks out from election day.

I would sincerely hope that a possible left alliance in Ireland is not graded on the outcome of this election. I worry about that, because I always vote for sensible left candidates. And we need more of them, and more co-operation.

It will be all to play for if the CC backing parties remain within even a moderate pact before the next election. Really, thats the only way we break the FFG Duopoly.

But i worry if CCs campaign continues to make unforced errors, that it reflects badly on left coalition building in the future. Its a genuine concern for me.

Watch this space i suppose🤞

I would be surprised if she doesnt top each poll between now and election day. I wouldnt be stunned if she slides down slightly though. Its just these unforced errors will have an effect. Beyond her base, she needs to be seen as credible to a broader set of voters.

If i were advising her, id be urging her to go after Humphreys. Id actually suggest she give Jim Gavin a pass. Try and remain on equal terms, and perhaps even defend JG from some of the more obvious attacks on him, which are coming down the track. Gavin will be eliminated first, that is almost beyond doubt to me. She needs to make these moves, to bolster her position relative to Humphreys, while trying to appear modest enough to Gavin voters, so as to get some transfers.

Again though, it requires political tact and strategy - Which honestly appears absent from Connollys campaign.

Going back to the poll though - if she isnt in first place, now - its over.

Again we just have to watch this space too!

If Jim Gavin was savvy he'd throw a couple of grand on himself to win. That'd drop his odds. Because, yet again, gambling odds for Irish politics are not an indicator of how an election is going, beyond the perception of the very small number of people who vote on it.

Thats the weird thing about the lack of Polls.

For us to really see the impact of this weeks debate, and the CC fiascos, we needed multiple polls. One from before the debate, preferably.

One after the debate, and a further poll around now, so as to see the effect of the CC campaigns unforced errors and scandals.

We dont have any, so we are kind of guessing at this stage

Most people have no party affiliation. Most centre ground people won't mind which of the other two wins as long as it is not the dangerously loose cannon, Connolly.

Given the amount of ‘form ‘ Ms Connolly has racked up in the past I doubt the electorate will not be influenced by the Wallace Daly Sadat axis and the Eirigi debacle.

Campaign blown out of the water now that O’Cuiv was mentioned.

CC is unlikely to win unless she's significantly out in front. I suspect most realistic supporters of her campaign see it that way. She was always a long shot because FF and FG transfer heavily to each other. HH and Gavin are poor candidates and that will help CC. CC has a chance but it's very much an outside chance.

For all the wrong reasons lad.

If she loses then will you think of it as a loss for SF, Labour, SDs and PBF etc? The reason I ask is because it's defacto the whole left alliance thing that needs sorting in people's minds for that to be a serious contender for an alternative govt.

If Connolly loses will they all say, we lost pr will they claim some sort of "well she wasn't one of ours as such" type of thing?

There is no 'outrage' beyond performative nonsense in discussions like this and among sections of politically aligned people opposed to CC.

You've already decided that CC has no appeal beyond her base yet we've seen no substantial polls thus far. Let's wait and see what info they tell us but ultimately October 25th will indicate how she has done.

The media are overwhelmingly 'centrist' orientated and no matter what CC does she will be dealt with far more harshly than anyone else...we've see this playook used here and elsewhere...you toe the centrist line or else. Anyone with an ounce of objective political analysis can see what's happening with CC, much of the coverage is so utterly disingenuous.