Presidential Election 2025

It doesn't. - She's telling lies

Watch the debate and find out.

Eirigi absolutely recognise Leinster House as the seat of Dail Eireann and the Irish government. They formed from a split in Sinn Fein less than 20 years ago, long after Sinn Fein had started taking seats there. They accepted the GFA, the return of Stormont and decommissioning. They're a registered political party and fully buy into the state apparatus.

Some confusion about their status may arise due to a significant number of them jumping ship to Saoradh who have a greater whiff of cordite about them.

A Poor Election with only Poor Candidates

There is one central truth that has been touched on a few times, but is now drowned out by debates and arguments over the presidential election. We have 3 very poor candidates, seeking to be elected as president. There is no clear favourite, no ‘best candidate’ that anyone can agree on. Im going to attempt to unpack this as I see it; And for anyone interested we could reframe the discussion slightly. Obviously you are all entitled to disagree or challenge my opinions.

Campaign So Far:

Heather Humphreys:

A non-entity in the debate, and running an incredibly lacklustre campaign, most talking points have hinged on her ‘orange background’. The fact she doesn’t speak Irish is a relevant talking point, but feeds further into politicization of the language in general. That said it cannot be denied that it is a valid talking point, and certainly worth discussing. Silly memes and videos have gone viral, thanks to her soft answers to journalist’s questions. The Humphreys campaign is without sparkle or excitement; definitely garnering the least attention of the three. Were this a reality TV show, Humphreys would easily be voted out first, and it is questionable whether anyone would notice her absence.

A possible ‘Tag Line’ for her campaign could easily be – ‘Dont Make a Fuss! Vote Humphreys No 1’

Catherine Connolly:

The argument that there is ‘no such thing as bad publicity’ is being challenged daily by the Connolly campaign. Leaving aside the current news cycle, I heard the German Ambassador on the radio this morning trying to calm matters down, regarding Connolly’s commentary on German Re-Arming. He was diplomatic, courteous and respectful, which are words we cannot associate with the Connolly Campaign. She clearly appeals to the student activist class of left-wing, and centre left voter; moving outside this loose coalition, it is difficult to see her commentary on Germany, Hamas, ‘western imperialism’, or NATO, as having gained any other support. Her actions seem to demonstrate a lack of political awareness. Which, to be fair, does go some distance in explaining the current story surrounding hiring a lady with a gun conviction. This story is on-going, and in my opinion, has not yet been adequately explained. And when combined with all of her other ‘sincerely held opinions’, she will remain at the top of the news cycle for the rest of this election campaign.

Jim Gavin:

After the debacle surrounding Fianna Fails selection of a candidate, there was a kind of ‘cock eyed’ optimism surrounding Gavin. Several FF friends of mine suspected that, Gavin must be the dark horse of the Election, and must have impressed Martin and others behind closed doors. Add to this, his history with the Irish Defence forces, and there was a clear belief that Gavin would make an impressive splash during the campaign. On foreign policy alone, it was felt he would really make a solid impact.

Fast forward to now, and the main talking point seems to be questioning the judgement of Fianna Fail leadership. Gavin lacks an ability to communicate politically, and shows a total inability to impact the election. He is clearly out of his depth, and the debate highlighted that. There is no indication that this will improve, and the press releases from Fianna Fail, highlighting how well they believe Gavin did on Monday night, only serves to baffle both critics and supporters. He was, by default, the weakest candidate, which really says something when one takes note of who he is running against. In contrast to Humphreys total lack of presence in the election, Gavin’s social media ‘moments’ are being openly mocked and ridiculed.

My Conclusion

Given that most people agree that the above three candidates are nothing if not poor, it becomes a choice of which one has the most credibility. And which one is likely to do the least damage, if elected to the Aras. The scale is turned on its head, so that we can chose who to back, with the goal being that of a stable Presidency. It won’t be exciting, or ground-breaking. Celebration will largely be absent. We just have to choose the ‘least worst option’ of the three, and hope that they are challenged in seven years time.

That said, here is how I see it.

1st - Heather Humphreys. Say what you will about the Irish Language, or her orange cultural association. In a poor field she remains the obvious inoffensive candidate. While many (including me) will struggle to back a Fine Gael candidate for election, she qualifies as the ‘least worst option’, easily. The ‘tag line’ mentioned above really sums it up for me. She will not make a fuss, or court controversy. She will simply do the job, as required under our political system.

2nd – Jim Gavin. A poor choice for election to high office, given his lack of ability to communicate; In time he could blood himself on public and political speaking, even if he probably wont end up doing much of either from the Phoenix Park. It remains unclear whether he can improve his standing in the election, but if elected, he would be relatively stable, if a tad underwhelming. He is no doubt receiving a crash course on the ‘Constitutional powers of the Presidency’ from Michael Martin, the latter of which might also take some time to update his CV.

3rd – Catherine Connolly. If Heather Humphreys is the ‘least worst option’, then Connolly easily qualifies as the exact opposite in my analysis. She courts controversy in every corner of her campaign. On the Irish Language, or lack thereof with her opponents, she could have won the points hands down. However this topic now remains connected to the hiring/vetting fiasco, which remains in the news cycle today. Prior to this, her bumbling and activist talking points, which are all factually inaccurate, courted nothing but controversy. Connolly remains the ‘quintessential’ radical independent TD; fiercely outspoken on many issues, without an ounce of political nuance or tact. Were it not for the backing of Labour, Sinn Fein, et al; i would assume her to be nothing more than a ‘protest candidate’, who is only running to frame the debate, with no actual inclination to attempt a winning run.

So, that is my take. As it stands it is possible I could re-evaluate the pecking order if it became necessary to do so. However I see no indication that this may happen. I remain convinced that we will see ‘more of the same’ from the above. The only possible exception to that would be Jim Gavin, who probably has nothing to lose by attempting a change in direction. While I place him second here, I will not be surprised if he comes last.

He just a terrible candidate. Few campaign gaffs and being shocking in the first debate doesn't help.

Has a few catchphrases about being a positive president and some other waffle.…and little else to say.

You would think Dáil vetting would be expedited given the importance of guarding against people with subversive connections.

Hard to argue with any of that. You would have made a great advisor to any candidate. I think it could be extremely close for second v third. HH on transfers if Gavin goes early on 1st count is my guess.

But if it is Gavin v HH in the second count, how do you call that? With the left antipathy to FF FG etc. The transfers would be low.

I still haven’t figured out personally who I view as the least worst between Gavin and Connolly. if you put a gun to my head….or if I was taking a birdseye view…. maybe Connolly 3rd, Gavin less annoying and not as sanctimonious. And ironically Gavin is less of a “loose cannon” than the pacifist candidate.

Thats not proof of membership of Eirigi.