So when is the crypto crash going to come?

LastApacheInjun · 26-09-2025 12:43PM #1

18 months? Two years?

I mean, look at all the red flags at the moment:

ERSI report telling the government to reign in spending for the last two quarters;
Two giveaway budgets with another on the way;
An over reliance on one sector of the economy to shore up tax returns;
The tide turning towards light touch financial regulation across Europe (although it's called "simplification" this time) with the Irish Central Bank getting rid of their consumer protection department and dialling down their enforcement cases;
Trump allowing banks in the US to plough huge amounts of money into crypto with no regulation, and it being pushed as a suitable investment for Joe Punter;
The fact that crypto is basically the penny stocks from 1929, the junk bonds from 1989, and mortgage back securities from 2008, in that people don't understand them, and that they have no actual intrinsic value, and are extremely speculative.

And there is the fact that most economies go in cycles. We're not used to this in Ireland because we were basically in a recession for fifty years, before having one boom and a big bust. But in other economies it tends to go in 15 to 30 year cycles. It's human nature. We bust. We over-correct. The collective memory of the bust begins to fade and the foot goes back on the accelerator and then we bust again. It's been 18 years since the start of the liquidity crisis that preceded the economic crisis. We're due.

I'm lucky that I work in a sector that is basically recession proof, in that we are madly busy in a downturn. But I also work in an area where you can see a lot of the red flags that - in hindsight - we missed in 2007.

So what are people's bets? I give it 12-18 months.

Fr Tod Umptious · 27-09-2025 10:55AM

Are that many people invested in crypto in Ireland?

I personally don't think there is as many as were invested in property 20 years ago.

But then again I'm in my 50s, I'm not really in tune with what younger cohorts are doing with there money.

As for the other things definitely an over reliance on corporate tax is a issue.

We have seen with trade that Trump is not unwilling to rip up the script and start again.

But what do you replace it with?

We have far more indeginous high value industries than we ever had but is it enough to soften the blow of losing FDI or US corporate money being routed through Ireland.

Also, I don't believe your job is recession proof, unless you are in the public sector no job is.

jackboy · 27-09-2025 11:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058425509/so-when-is-the-crypto-crash-going-to-come

Does the dollar or the euro have intrinsic value? They are just endlessly printed and devalued. Does anyone believe that can go on permanently without eventual disaster.

silliussoddius · 27-09-2025 08:41PM

I’m more concerned about the AI crash. Crypto is is just junk recycled between people not trying to be the bag holder. I think it will end with a whimper and not with a bang when the bag holder supply runs out, and people realize it’s another way for our tech bro saviors to relieve us of our money.

Montage of Feck · 27-09-2025 08:53PM

I just don't get crypto, doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me never mind the huge resources used to "mine" the bleeding thing.

CatLick · 27-09-2025 09:06PM

A harsh recession will trigger a crypto/gold slump. <Middle income investors will sell to cover job losses/pay cuts and it'll replace the dutch 🌷 boom/bust in the history books.

jackboy · 27-09-2025 09:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123856726#Comment_123856726

Would cash not go the same way as there would be massive printing, wiping out savings and pensions.

CatLick · 27-09-2025 09:34PM

Maybe but crypto/gold investors still live in a cash world. When you can t pay your car loan than you have to liquidate.

CramCycle · 27-09-2025 09:52PM

There will be a recession but crypto won't play a part in it, at least not a noticeable one. All the warning signs are there but crypto isn't a big enough thing to be the start of it or even a sizeable footnote when it happens.

Talked to friends abroad and it's like it's already underway elsewhere.

Jim_Hodge · 27-09-2025 09:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123856890#Comment_123856890

Crypto wouldn't be a cause of a recession but it will certainly be any early victim of it. A recession hits, money gets tight, crypto goes sell sell sell and down down down.

CramCycle · 27-09-2025 10:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123856910#Comment_123856910

100% a few will hold on but it will crash, but as you said, it won't be the cause of it.

threeball · 28-09-2025 12:08AM

We're seeing the early signs of a recession. I think we'll be in a full blown one within two years. It was probably 4years off but Trumps fcukery has accelerated that and possible will further.

Crypto isn't a factor in the vast majorities lives so won't be a factor in the crash but the poster worried about AI is correct. Theres trillions being invested in something which is already showing it can't deliver on its promises. Theres a good chance it crashes and burns as a stock for the vast majority of companies involved in the not too distant future. All companies who will be deemed too big to fail and probably get bailed out with public money, especially with the orange one in charge.

Escapees · 28-09-2025 04:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123857372#Comment_123857372

If this comes to pass, do you believe the housing market here will follow suit or will the pent up demand, as well as the relatively recent experience with the recovery of house prices following the last recession, help to sustain the current market?

CatLick · 28-09-2025 07:13PM

Over supply relative to population drove the last crash amplified by an income fall. Supply is much more constrained now. So only a brutal income recession will achieve the same effect. Mass emigration may amplify this but it's hard to predict as people will need somewhere better to go to. And of course A LOT of cash is on deposit and Irish people love a cheap property deal.

threeball · 28-09-2025 08:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123858502#Comment_123858502

This crash won't be about housing, it'll be about liquidity and labour. There will be serious job losses in tech and multinationals reliant on the US. The US is going to crash and burn on a number of fronts. We're tied to them inextricably and we'll suffer the fallout more than most.

BorneTobyWilde · 28-09-2025 10:30PM

AI Crypto will take over from Bitcoin

https://bitcoin.org.ht/

We should all throw a grand at it, and watch it multiple by 1000 in two year 😎

It's 4 times it's value since Jan 1st this year

Escapees · 29-09-2025 08:44AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123859416#Comment_123859416

But wouldn't the effects of this (unemployment, emigration, etc) have a direct knock-on effect then on our housing market?

threeball · 29-09-2025 10:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123860398#Comment_123860398

It'll reduce demand for housing but there will also less houses being built as credit tightens so I think one will offset the other this time round.

If you don't have a job you ain't buying a house. And builders won't build unless its profitable to do so. You'll be back to the one off housing that was the only activity during the 2008 crash.

LastApacheInjun · 29-09-2025 01:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123860538#Comment_123860538

I also don't think any recession is going to have much of an effect on the housing market. If we have a big dip in our tax intake, there's going to be no money for the infrastructure (water, electricity, transport, schools) required in order to connect any new builds. That's one of the major obstacles to building at the moment. If there's a big hike in personal taxes you'll get less skilled builders coming here, and more homegrown skilled builders going off to Dubai/Australia/Canada (as ever). The fundamental issues with the housing market won't be solved by a recession.

You might have less immigration, and you might have big blocks like Ukrainians returning home if there's no work here, which should free up some housing stock either for social housing or to the rental market. But I don't think that will bring down the price of houses when there's still very limited stock, unless there are widespread layoffs and a tightening of lending.

The reason why I think crypto will be central to any impending downturn is that order signed by Trump in August allowing pension funds invest in crypto (amongst other risky investments). The pension market is massive, absolutely massive. The knock on effects of allowing crypto to be bundled into investment funds looks like a recipe for disaster to me. While we made some strides post-crisis to prevent contagion effects where investment funds start to fail, this whole "simplification" of financial regulation recently feels like the market will produce ever more complex products and eventually we'll be back where we started.

astrofool · 29-09-2025 01:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123859893#Comment_123859893

The fact it's increasing its value indicates that it is not suitable as a form of currency.

cnocbui · 29-09-2025 01:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123861121#Comment_123861121

Does that apply to gold too, given it's value has recently increased substantially?

Bitcoin is far closer to being a store of value asset like gold, than a currency substitute.

LastApacheInjun · 29-09-2025 02:20PM

Crypto not a store of value though. Gold has a value because a/ it's physical and can be transported without the need for electronic devices with secure connections, b/ it's an item which society will always want for industry and luxury items, and c/it can be traded in dire circumstances e.g. times of war, drought or hyperinflation.

The only value to crypto is that it is difficult to mine, and difficult to trace. Difficult to mine means its rare. Like gold, like diamonds, but not like them because crypto can't be used for anything and there would be some doubt that in times of war or drought or hyperinflation you would be able to trade it. Difficult to trace means that it will have a ready grey or black market - but in times of hardship that will only undermine people's trust in trading it.

Even currency has some intrinsic value because it is back by a country, which is likely to have physical assets it can cash in to shore up the currency when it starts to drop in value.

Crypto is purely a speculative trading instrument. Like options or futures or contracts for difference.

astrofool · 30-09-2025 03:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123861201#Comment_123861201

It's, at best, a store of value, which makes all the energy put into facilitating transactions even crazier.

LastApacheInjun · 30-09-2025 07:44PM

We were talking about this again at work today. My company is massively increasing it's risk while downsizing compliance resources, which is obviously massively p*ssing off staff as leavers are not being replaced and there is little chance of promotion. As I said, I don't care. My area thrives in a crash/recession, so I just need to sit tight, ignore the b*llshit and wait for the recession to happen. It's just the fact that all the red flags are being waved straight in front of our faces but it seems our Dear Leadership can't see them at all. Or maybe they're investing in hedge funds and are doing all this on purpose. Who knows.

Jim_Hodge · 30-09-2025 08:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123865075#Comment_123865075

Sorry, a genuine question…how does this relate to crypto? Maybe I'm missing something.

Fr Tod Umptious · 01-10-2025 07:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123865075#Comment_123865075

Any chance you could actually tell us what you do, because in the OP you said you were recession proof and now you are going one further telling us your area thrives in recessions ?

Peregrinus · 01-10-2025 08:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123854541#Comment_123854541

But not many people invest in dollars and hold them long term, expecting them to appreciate in real value. People use dollars to buy real assets, like land, or corporate equity.

threeball · 01-10-2025 09:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123866264#Comment_123866264

He works in Supermacs :D

crusd · 01-10-2025 09:34AM

In 100 years time it will be like the Tulip bulbs, a cautionary tale about how easy it is to separate people from their money in a speculative asset bubble.

People have and will make money from Crypto. Most will lose badly in the end. My own personal view is that you will find "Satoshi Nakomoto" whomever he or they are has unwittingly or knowingly executed the biggest ponzi scheme in history. It has no intrinsic value and no utility but yet people have been persuaded to part from their money / resources.

Some will say fiat currency has no intrinsic value, but that ignores the utility value as an agreed medium of exchange, both backed by governments and markets but also easy to use.

Rawr · 01-10-2025 04:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123866489#Comment_123866489

Pretty much this.

I feel that the fate NTFs were a bit of a microcosm of what we’ll eventually see with most Cypto-currencies.

With NFTs, you got nearly the same idea, but instead of play-acting as money, you had bits of digital pictures play-acting as art assets that you could own. It got big initially due to hype and people trying to jump onto the bandwagon as early as they could in order to hopefully get rich off this. Some did, but many many others did not.

I think NFTs died much quicker, because the harsh light of reality made it so. Unlike art assets that you can actually touch and even hang up in your home…NFTs were literally nothing. It’s just an excuse to own a Block-chain token that has been given an arbitrary value in real-world cash. NFTs simply could not survive under the weight of their own stupidity, and are essentially worthless now.

Cryto-currencies will eventually go that way too, but it may take a little longer. The issue with the likes of Bitcoin is that the whole idea was to be an alternative type of money that you could use for goods and services. But in practice that nearly never happened. So just like NFTs, Cypto-currency is just an excuse to own a Block-chain token that has been given a real-world cash value.

Cryto-bros might go on about how Cryto is superior to traditional fiat currency, but don’t seem to notice that the only reason people got excited for the likes of BitCoin is because of its value in fiat currencies. People want to get rich raking in the Dollars or Euros by selling their Crypto at the right time…they otherwise have no interest in actually using their new digital money.

The rest of Crypto will go the way of NFTs, but in a larger scale, and with a lot of people who got milked of their cash to own what amounts to a very expensive encrypted password. Might take a while though before we get to our Dot-Com bubble moment….but it will happen.

silliussoddius · 01-10-2025 04:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123866489#Comment_123866489

I think there were some true believers (bitter libertarians) in the early days of bitcoin, but it's hilarious how the currency that was here to save us from the evil centralized banks is being cheered on when it's been adopted by the types of financial institutions that helped cause the crash that led to the formation of bitcoin. The whole idea of the blockchain seems like a solution looking for a problem.

As for utility, I'm reminded of an interview with Zeke Faux (who wrote a book on crypto) where he said he was at a crypto conference where all payment methods were in fiat.

So when is the crypto crash going to come?

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