Presidential Election 2025

It's clear that Keoghan does have an unexpected degree of influence,

You presented zero evidence…ZERO just an outright 'smear' which I parodied, to point out.

I have no time for Keoghan BTW and wouldn't vote for Steen if she was the last candidate standing but I respect their right to lobby and convince and their right to stand if they can find support.

Thanks for the info

I don't see Connolly coming second place to any SF candidate, with maybe the exception of Gerry Adams. Anybody else SF put forward will just be a transfer vote for her. I'm reminded of the time that Martin McGuinness ousted Sean Gallagher's dodgy dealings and Mickey D actually got the keys to the Áras, not the candidate that ousted him.

Something similar might happen if SF put a candidate forward, they'll target JG or HH and bring them down but do absolutely no favours for themselves and one of the other 2 will swim to victory

Ah remember Mary Robinson reinvented herself when running for the job, according to P. Flynn.

And there I was thinking Connolly reminded me a bit of Robinson. Both have long necks! 🙄

SF have an interesting position now. They can still do damage to the FFG candidates and help CC to the Áras and now they also have the opportunity to back CC and potentially take a slice of the winners pie

I've personally always felt that the office of presidency is something the people reward to a candidate they feel has done justice to them over the years. For Dubliners that might be Jim Gavin but outside of Dublin he will be seen as FF.

For Landlords, property developers, bankers, big business owners and other such elitists they probably see HH, through FG, as having helped them the most, but that FF would have helped over the years also, so either of the FFG candidates would be their first and 2nd preferences

Then you have the rest of society, the young, the working man, the person down on their luck and falling faster down because of FFG policies, the people on hospital waiting lists, the people who have lost loved ones to UHL. If they all came out to vote Connolly would win on the first count but unfortunately very few of them express their right to vote

That is a great point about Gavin. Opponents questioning Gavin would have some job attacking Gavin if they don’t know his broder political views. Also Gavin is a master at not taking a “strong”. Position on anything unless he sees-

1) It is the populist view

or

2) He can reach broad consensus / compromise

As that is exactly what he did when he was involved in the process of changing the rules of Gaelic football. Strenuously testing the new rules, finding the nub of the issues with the old rules. Many nationwide media interviews, consulting people from all backgrounds within the organisation.

That is what I think impressed FF Gavin saying things like “We have taken that criticism on board…” during the testing. To me Gavin is a Dublin version of former Taoiseach Jack Lynch. Because he so softly spoken, and who on the face of it seems very passive but beneath lurks a steely determination. How do you live debate against a person like that?

With extreme difficulty ! think, as the opponent can come across as overbearing if they are not careful. The optics wouldn’t look good, and Jim Gavin has no “political gaffs” simply because he was never in politics before so how do you attack that?

The other two candidates Connolly and Humphreys will no doubt snipe at each other politically. Leaving Gavin looking like the magnanimous Statesman. While he says little of note.

As others have said it leaves SF in a quandary for a number of reasons. You would think FG are SF’s more natural opponent. But Humphreys is an Ulster woman who covers both sides of the tricolour SF wave at the slightest opportunity. SF can’t really attack Gavin as for reasons you already stated. Doherty tried it but came across as mean spirited and insincere.

SF in theory are supposed to support Connolly, but the impression (unsaid directly and reading between the lines as usual with SF) they don’t back Connolly fully.

A sudden SF candidate palatable to the ROI voter, beyond the usual SF supporter base, is going to be hard for them to find. Presumably a female candidate would be preferable. But is the broader ROi electorate going to like O’Neill as much as MLM? A comprehensive defeat with few transfers in a Presidential election harms the SF “brand”.

I'm sure it'll come up during the campaign.

As I recall the notorious thug Diarmuid Connolly assaulted a linesman during a game and Jim Gavin took exception to the RTE panel calling it for what it was so refused to engage in interviews and banned all of his players from doing so in a presumable effort to pressure media outlets to cover them favourably in future if they want engagement.