Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

H1s last longer than one year …. There are also group h1 scheme for larger companies…. My post says they are involved in design, planning and commissioning which typically needs PhD qualifications to ensure all the regs are adhered to. it is not toasters they are wiring up….

Seems now that South Korea govt intervened and are flying them back home….

According to the below article "some of the detained workers had illegally crossed the U.S. border, while others had entered the country legally but had expired visas or had entered on a visa waiver that prohibited them from working"

I call bullshit on this. How in hell would workers from Korea cross the border illegally. The vast majority of these workers are highly educated and are highly skilled in their fields. At the end of the day, after all the posturing, trump is a vile person. He is a rapist. He is a sexual deviant. He is a convicted criminal. He is a fraud and a cheat. In any civilised society he would never be allowed anywhere near a political party. In the vast majority of countries his mocking of a disabled journalist would have destroyed any concept of a political career. How any decent thinking person could support him is beyond me.

It isn't though. I think there has been leaks of calls between Macron and Scholz in 2023 where they compare notes about calls with Putin and they are baffled that Putin never asked either of them about an end to sanctions. From the Bild article:

Scholz: "Something bothers me more than the conversation [with Putin]. He does not complain at all about the sanctions. I don't know if he did that in conversation with you. But he did not address the sanctions at all"

Macron: "Not with me either".

At the end of the day it is weird and strange for 11% of the world to think they can sanction 89% of the world. It has already been shown up as disastrous in the case of India moving closer to China.

EDIT - Its worth also noting that Putin gave a speech to Russian businessmen earlier this year in Perm, and re-iterated that the sanctions regime was the new normal and it would never be removed or relaxed by the EU or the US. This was well received.

While trade with China has filled much of the lost Western markets for Russia, it hasn't filled it all. There are still problems with higher prices in agriculture. Putin has acknowledged a few days ago that the economy is in trouble.

Small farmers in Russia face higher prices for seeds and machinery, which are part of the . sanction. But factory farmers tied to the Putin regime elite have benefitted because that can afford Chinese parallel imports such as machinery. This has accelerated concentration of land ownership in the hands of large agricultural conglomerates tied to Putin.

I support sanctions but without secondary sanctions on China and pressure on Turkey and UAE to join sanctions or face them themselves, containment of Putin will continue to be frustrated.

I do feel the sanctions help but that Victor Orbans veto has made them less effective than they otherwise would be. For example he obtained the removal of certain oligarch family members from them eg Alisher Usmanov's sister.

Chatgtp description of the impact on the economy of sanctions:

ChatGPT

You said:

Impact of sanctions on Russian economy

The sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 (Crimea annexation) and especially after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have had significant effects on its economy. Here’s a structured overview of their impact:

1. Macroeconomic Effects

• GDP Growth:
  • In 2022, Russia’s GDP contracted by about 2.1% (less severe than expected due to high energy revenues).
  • The economy has since shown resilience, but growth is weak and driven largely by state spending on the war effort rather than healthy private-sector activity.
• Inflation: Sanctions disrupted imports of goods and technologies, pushing up prices. Inflation rose sharply in 2022 and continues to remain elevated.

2. Trade & Energy

• Oil & Gas Exports:
  • Europe (once Russia’s biggest market) slashed imports of Russian oil, gas, and coal.
  • Russia redirected much of its oil exports to China, India, and Turkey, but often at steep discounts, cutting revenue.
• Gas: Pipeline exports to Europe collapsed after the Nord Stream shutdowns. LNG (liquefied natural gas) still flows, but volumes are limited.
• Technology & Imports: Sanctions on high-tech components (chips, machinery, aircraft parts) hit industries like aviation, defense, and automotive. Russia has turned to China and parallel import schemes to fill the gap.

3. Financial Sector

• Banking Isolation: Major banks were cut from SWIFT, making global transactions harder.
• Currency: The ruble initially collapsed in 2022 but was stabilized with capital controls. By 2023–2024, it faced renewed weakness due to falling export revenues.
• Foreign Reserves: About $300 billion of Russia’s central bank reserves abroad were frozen. This restricted Russia’s ability to defend its currency.

4. Industry & Technology

• Automotive: Western carmakers exited Russia. Domestic production collapsed by over 60% in 2022, slowly recovering with Chinese brands.
• Aerospace: Aircraft maintenance is a major problem since Boeing and Airbus cut ties. Airlines are cannibalizing planes for spare parts.
• Defense: Sanctions limit access to precision components (microchips, optics). Russia is trying to import via third countries but faces bottlenecks.
• Energy Tech: Western withdrawal hinders Arctic oil & LNG projects due to lack of advanced drilling and liquefaction technologies.

5. Fiscal & Social Impact

• War Economy:
  • Government spending shifted heavily toward defense and security.
  • Civilian sectors (health, education, infrastructure) face underfunding.
• Labor Shortages: Hundreds of thousands of skilled workers left Russia to avoid mobilization, sanctions, or economic instability.
• Living Standards: Real incomes fell; poverty increased, though not dramatically cushioned by subsidies and pensions.

6. Long-Term Outlook

• Russia avoided immediate economic collapse due to:
  • High oil and gas revenues in 2022,
  • Strong fiscal reserves,
  • Redirection of trade to Asia.
• However, structural damage is severe:
  • Loss of Western technology and capital,
  • Dependence on China and a few other partners,
  • Erosion of consumer choice and innovation.
• The economy is increasingly turning into a war economy, with sustainability in doubt if sanctions tighten further and energy revenues shrink.

So you think sanctions don't work. Why don't you ask white south africans how their apartheid regime fell apart? Dope

Mod Edit: Warned for personal abuse

Most of the Oligarchs keep their monies offshore partiularly those involved in oil and mining, Putin has his hand in all their pockets on a personal basis, only enough funds are allowed back to Russia to pay for raw materials/extraction/delivery - keep the flow going.

A lot of these funds have been sanctioned/frozen and properties seized, particularly in London.

While freezing Russian assets is at best dubious, outright stealing them would indeed grab the attention of every single non-US investor with USD assets. Any country which might have some reason to think they could fall foul of a US temper tantrum - China, India, Saudis, Denmark, etc - in the future would recognise their USD assets could be stolen too, and there would be a rush to the exits instead of the current shuffling. It would be economically devastating to the US to lose its reputation as a safe and stable place to hold assets with strong legal protections. Far worse than the impact of the Trump tariff regime.

Putin would probably take a trade where the Russians write off a few billion and in exchange the US economically cripples its ability to borrow and attract international investment.

The Belgian Finance Minister said the same with regards to peoples short sighted ideas about stealing the Russian assets in their country. It would be a disaster:

"For Belgium, confiscating Russian sovereign assets is not an option," Prevot said in an interview at his Brussels office.

"Such a confiscation, motivated by a political decision rather than a legal or judicial one, would be likely to cause a terrible systemic shock across all European financial markets, deal a severe blow to the credibility of the euro, and thus have very problematic domino effects."

"Do you think that all the other countries in the world, which have also invested billions and billions in European financial markets, would not risk withdrawing them, saying: 'If it is so easy to have these assets confiscated tomorrow... then I will put them somewhere else,'?" Prevot said.

"decent thinking" people don't.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-fails-overturn-e-jean-carrolls-833-million-verdict-2025-09-08/?utm_source=reddit.com

Jean E Carroll verdict upheld so no change on his rapist status.

West Point award ceremony for actor Tom Hanks has been cancelled.

MAGA vindictiveness. Hanks has done much to support veterans.

Think funds are held in a bond at the court, so unless he keeps appealing at some stage the court will call a halt.