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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,876 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    CO2 emission power sources.jpeg

    Nuclear has lower lifetime CO2 emissions than every form of renewable. If you were to add the CO2 attributable to the huge overcapacity needed for renewables to approximate the capacity factor of nuclear, plus unaffordable and vast battery storage, all those grid stability measures and the massive buildout for hundreds of grid connections, and multiple multi billion interconnectors, the CO2 reduction advantage of nuclear is even more than shown. It being cheaper is just icing on the cake.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,173 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In Western Europe it takes a minimum of 17 years to add a reactor to an existing nuclear power plant ie. all your ducks are in a row.

    From the figures you provided using gas for 6.3 years while waiting for 5.6g nuclear instead of using 52g solar would mean that nuclear wouldn't offset those higher carbon emissions even if the plant operates for a full 60 years (not achieved by any plant yet).

    Please provide the source for your numbers, The https://vdma.eu/en-GB/international-technology-roadmap-photovoltaic lists previous and planned reductions in silicon, glass, metals for the main type of PV used now.

    Nuclear missed the boat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    That boat is coming back in to the dock, and it`s not to load up with renewables.

    Not only, as I showed you in my last post that offshore wind has priced inself out of the market, Denmark could not get a single bid for their largest ever offering for offshore and Orsted pulled out of Hornsea 4 even after their CFD price being increased by 60- 70% because it would still be economically unviable.

    Renewables are intermittent, unreliable and cannot power a grid on their own. Something even Denmark have come to realise and that "something else" will be required. If Hornsea is economically unviable then storage is a complete other bat shlt crazy level of economic unviability be that from hydrogen, batteries or whatever you`re having yourself. So what other options are left for that "something else" ?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,173 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Nuclear missed the boat.

    For at least the next 87 years It cannot deliver any CO2 emission savings compared to investing in renewables now. And that's assuming technology stops and improvements stops and investment stops and no one learns anything new during that time.

    It's a Catch-22. The only way to keep overall lifetime emissions from nuclear low is to remove the need for fossil fuel while waiting for nuclear. But if you can do that there there's no need for nuclear.

    Besides nuclear is unreliable, except when you cherry pick twelve month periods that fall in the middle of the typical 18 month refuelling cycle. The risk from nuclear isn't so much the number of outage, but how long they last AND how frequently the industry is blind-sided by events that have happened before.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,300 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    This is the problem with Nuclear. By chasing thermal efficiency at all costs, the current set of nuclear power plants have all become megaprojects. No other form of generation involves such scale and engineering complexity… and so much completion risk.

    The only hope for nuclear is the Small Modular Reactor: if they ever turn up, they will be far less efficient than the 1.5 GW reactors, and per gigawatt they may even be more expensive than the claimed costs of current plants, but the problem they’re addressing is repeatability: the big attraction for SMRs is that ordering one would supposedly mean actually having one within 2-3 years of ordering, at somewhere around the estimated cost.

    The current generation of full-scale reactors is just not something you could sensibly embark on building now - far too many of the projects get bogged down in delay and cost escalations, and there’s no sign that this was due to teething issues. It’s basically a crapshoot with multi-billion euros at stake, and an enormous sunk-cost that forces you to complete a project despite overruns. Finland’s reactor build bankrupted its constructor - the Finns basically called the constructor’s bluff and forced them to finish the build at the last agreed price, or walk away and get nothing. The enormous loss the company incurred was covered by a French government bailout: that’s why Olkiluoto 3 looks like good value - it was sold to the Finns below the actual cost of construction.

    If even the people selling these massively expensive things can’t make money on them, then the technology is dead. Even the nuclear industry knows this, which is why SMRs have generated such a big buzz.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Still no answer as to what the "something else" required to fill the gap in generation due to the intermittent and unreliable nature of renewables. I thought even for you the penny would have dropped at this stage when Denmark who have spent years lecturing everyone else on wind power were confronted with the reality that they would no longer get to treat Norway like a battery when wind dropped off to nothing, very quickly changed their laws on nuclear. Sweden are feed up being treated in the same manner as regards their nuclear power by Germany. A country that shut down their own reactors based on nothing more than a political ideology. In fact if it wasn`t for the massive export of French nuclear power many others would have seen their lights by relying on renewables go out during those periods when they decide to have a prolonged snooze. Yet here you are still backing a plan for here that would have us with a strike price many multiples of that of the U.K. when even there Orsted have pulled out of one of the U.K. largest wind project for it being financially unviable and Denmark could not even get a single bid for its largest ever offering for offshore.

    Even for a blind man it is patently obvious that the the cost of wind power we see from Taiwan`s, Hai Long and the U.S. Revolution Wind projects are unsustainable in even a mixed energy grid let alone for what you are still backing. Virtually 100% wind powered here.

    If that boat you keep mentioning is sailing away from anything it`s not nuclear. It`s wind.

    On your mention of investments.

    A report from Carbon Brief 24th. April 2025 highlighted how investors had pulled $8.6 Bn. from sustainable funds in Q1 2025. While some of this was due to Trump those investors were not rushing to put it into other such funds worldwide. Europe since the first time tracking began in 2018 recorded net outflows of $1.2 Bn. for the quarter. As did Asia (excluding Japan) with redemptions of $918m., and Japan saw negative flows compared to the previousquarter falling below $900m.

    Not only have European-domiciled sustainable funds experienced net outflows for the first time in at least 7 years, many of these funds are now finding the terms "ESG" "sustainable" or "sustainability" now toxic when it comes to attracting investors with 180 of them in Q1 2025 alone dropping those terms from their names.

    If that along with the present insane costs of wind generation does not show you where this is going then nothing will. Wind had its day and has been found very wanting, and before you start off rambling again about solar, mid Winter sees our capital city experiencing on average 16.5 hours of darkness daily.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    What if the 'something else' was... nuclear??

    What do you reckon would be the optimal site?

    Rough estimate on time to generation, if we (for the sake of argument) assume the Irish government approves a reactor tomorrow?

    And, this is crucial, what power source should we build today to meet generation requirements until the plant is operating

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,173 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    We can't build Gen II plants anymore for safety reasons. So Gen III and their extended construction times , even when they are in series production, is what you can see working and buy. Commerical SMR's only exist in theory.

    The figure for EPR's is something like 15% more fuel efficient than previous generation. Which works out at something like 0.5% improvement a year. But there's no financial saving because they cost so much more.

    Thermal efficiencies haven't changed all that much because of physics, like critical pressure of water, phase changes in plutonium, oxidation temperatures of fuel rod cladding. To get hotter you are looking at stuff like gas cooling , pebbles , molten salt - all things that have been proven to work time and time again, but not ready for commercial use because of the energy stored in graphite or pebbles getting stuck or turning to dust or the pumping requirements for gas or any number of real world problems that theoretical designs haven't had to overcome yet.

    NASA budgeted $4.4m to replace asbestos in the SLS solid boosters. So far they've spent close to a quarter of a billion dollars.

    Good , Fast , Cheap. Pick two. In the case of SMR's we got Good and Fast 70 years ago with reactors for NATO submarines.

    Not only is Good and Cheap = Slow , there's also the problem that the goalposts are moving. During the last 70 years a lot of coal and nuclear plants were displaced by gas with CCGT displacing open cycle and in turn being displaced by renewables.

    A commercial SMR now would have to be a lot more cost efficient than one from the 1950's or 1960's or 1970's or 1980's or 1990's or 2000's or 2010's. But there aren't any commercial ones to improve on.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,173 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    We already have storage , demand shedding, other generators like CHP , waste to energy, hydro and biomass and biogas are already on the grid and there's interconnectors too. Unlike SMR's geothermal, tidal and wave exist. And we can use some gas as a backstop until 2030. Storage could be from 0.18 seconds response time of hundreds of MW of batteries to months or years at GW scale that could be stored as gas in existing reservoirs.

    So there's plenty of ways we could get through short gaps in wind+solar.

    image.png

    It's early days but in July we got a quarter of our power from neither gas nor wind. And it's a lot windier in winter.

    There is no way low-carbon way to get through 17+ years waiting for nuclear.

    Measured over longer periods France's nett exports are less than the amount of renewable power it produces.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    We do not have short gaps where renewables go for a snooze. We have long extended periods where wind generation drops to 6% or less. It`s why the proposed plan of 50% of that offshore 37GW is for hydrogen production.

    That propsed 37GW alone based on Taiwan and U.S. wind farm construction costs would be €645 Bn. - €673 Bn. for a life span of 25 years. It would see the consumer, for generation alone, with a strike price of at least double that of the U.K., and with hydrogen included, 3 times that of the U.K. Easily double the strike price for Hinkley C, the most expensive nuclear you could find.

    Not only is the construction cost so crazy for a population of 5 million that it is laughable that anyone would even consider it let alone propose it, it would also leave us with the most expensive electricity charges in the world by so much of a country mile it would wipe out our economy in jig time.

    I have already posted here what battery storage would cost to cover those extended period when wind is asleep and it`s financially as bat shlt crazy as the proposes 37GW offshore wind/hydrogen plan. Geothermal, tidal and wave only exist in your head as a hopium with not the first clue of how or if they would work, or what the costs would be..

    So that leaves you with just gas as your "something else", but not just until 2030. With the projected demand for 2050, the proposed 37 GW plan would see us still burning the same volume of gas until 2050 and beyond as we are now, with us having paid out €170 Bn in fines by 2050.

    One thing I do find entertaining is your contradictions when it comes to nuclear. It`s "over my dead body" until your proposal hits the skids when renewables go to sleep, then it "interconnectors". Unless you haven`t realised it yet, there is nothing going to be coming through those interconnectors during those extended periods other than U.K. or French nuclear.

    Over those prolonged periods nuclear, mainly French, is keeping the lights on in Europe because everywhere else that is relying on renewables is in the same boat as us.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    So, given the difficulties listed previously with getting a nuclear plant built in Ireland, and as you say, what's going to come through the interconnections being French nuclear, would the logical option not be to "timeshare" French nuclear plants and build a ton of interconnectors to pipe in the power??

    Basically we provide x% of the funding of the plant and a legal guarantee of x% of its power output directed to Ireland, build on an existing site, build with French expertise, under French planning, with French sensibilities towards nuclear.

    The Irish part of it would be getting several gw of interconnection operating.

    This would still leave us needing a gas reserve as it would be a bit crazy to rely on a foreign country for such a large amount of our base load, but probably more "actually possible" than putting it in Ireland

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Not just the Irish part getting several GW of interconnectivity, but on the French side also.

    All those French NPPs would have to be located in Brittany. 'New' nuclear only works on existing NPP sites. Perhaps Brennilis could be reactivated but considering that it was bombed and disconnected from the French grid by activists when it last tried to operate, that is going to be a difficult proposition to sell.

    It would probably be easier to get a NPP built in Ireland than try to convince the Bretons to build one there for our benefit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,674 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Flamanville is close enough. Invest for a timeshare slice of the existing plant and pay or co-pay for another 2 or 3 reactors. Concurrent to trying to build a NPP down Carnsore again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Sorry, Carnsore is no longer an option. There's a wind farm there now :)

    Would you consider Belmullet instead?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Teaming up with the French and co-funding a nuclear plant is not the craziest idea I have seen posted here, but I doubt it would get much more from the French than a diplomatic feck off.

    France do not need to go touting for business when it comes to electricity exports. Last year they exported 101.3 TWh, an all time record, (around three times our total consumption for the year), and EDF made a profit of €11.4 Bn after recording a profit of €10 bBn in 2023.

    If they looked at what we are proposing to spend on our current 2050 plan, plus the cost of the interconnectors that would be required, the feck off would mostly be on the basis of, "You are proposing to spend that kind of money on renewables, but you want us to generate nuclear power for you because you judge yourselves too high and mighty to sully your hands doing the same yourselves".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,300 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Hang on… don’t we then have the “grid sprawl” of running high voltage pylons through rural Ireland to serve these remote power generation facilities? I know this was a very deeply held concern by some posters who oppose wind-farms.

    More bad news is that a single source the size of a current nuclear plant would need a 400 kV transmission link, and those pylons are huge compared with the 110 kV transmission network used by windfarms.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    If it was Carnsore I would not see the wind farm there being a major stumbling block in the grand scheme of things. It comprises 14 wind turbines that at best are supplying 3.5 MW



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,674 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Not Belmullet, middle of nowhere. I'd let the experts do site selection.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Have you been to Carnsore? Ok, if not Belmullet, how about Foxpoint 🙂?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip


    It's not the MW, it's the land they occupy (have leased).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Not that I`m saying I believe it should be Carnsore, but if it was then I still would not see that land being a major problem.

    The State and local authorities have used compulsory purchase orders for land required for roads and motorways as well as for other projects where they have deemed it as in the public interest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Probably faster to just wait until the wind farm lease was finished, are they usually around 25 years?

    Look how long it's taking them to decide on a route for the remainder of the M11/N11 to Rosslare. And nearly everyone in the south east is in favour of that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,604 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    We have some on here opposed to nuclear because the feel it would take to long to have a plant operational, yet you are suggesting that we wait 25 years for land to build one on before even starting the planning stage ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,674 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    I just said I'd let the experts do the site selection!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69 ✭✭burgerKev


    Who would build it, BAM?

    That's the big problem, not that nuclear is dangerous or whatever, but the shower we have in government would make a bags of it like they have with everything else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Not everything has to be confrontational Charlie :) I'm in favour of nuclear power, recognise the need for it, but I don't think that it's a realistic or financially viable proposition for Ireland.

    Carnsore wind farm became operational in 2002, so a 25 year lease would be expiring this year or at the latest 2026. Good luck getting your NPP planning application submitted before then. But even if it's a 50 year lease, you're still not going to get a NPP planning application submitted in time.

    I have some further bad news for you about Carnsore Point. Perhaps you are already familiar with Natura2000 ?

    https://natura2000.eea.europa.eu/

    You are almost certainly familiar with Peter Sweetman. Sweetman looks to object to basically anything within 15km of a Natura 2000 site.

    image.png

    NPP and Carnsore point would give Sweetman (obscenity removed) for years. You're going to have to find somewhere else. Somewhere on the coast that's 15km away from a Natura location.

    image.png

    Yeah, good luck with that.

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,917 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Moneypoint would be the obvious location in terms of grid transmission.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,300 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Except that the Shannon estuary is a wildlife protection area. There is not a hope of building a nuclear plant there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Consonata


    Going from no discussion on NPP to having one built, with no industry that has any experience in building one, no pipeline for fuel, and no real viable site, will take at least 30 years to come to complete fruition.

    In the meantime what do we do?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,609 ✭✭✭✭josip




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