Boards weather forecast contest for August 2025

WolfeEire · 26-08-2025 02:15PM

We very well could see the rainfall average get close to normal in many places with the forecast rainfall totals up to Aug 31st

M.T. Cranium · 29-08-2025 07:44PM

After four weeks …

IMT 16.6 C (fourth week average 16.6, 1.8 above normal)

MAX 28.1

MIN 7.7 (our highest forecast is 4.5 C from Artane2002)

PRC 55% of normal (fourth week average 120%) (our lowest forecast is 77% from MTC)

SUN 99% of normal (fourth week average 78.5%)

BONUS already scored above

__________

The estimates posted in the last report (entitled after three months LOL) for preliminary scoring all appear to be on track, except it may never drop anywhere near 4 C unless possibly it does so by midnight 31st somewhere. While it will be rather wet at times, a further 20 mm on average will result in an outcome near 77%. As of yesterday there had been about half the normal amount of rain to end of month (or 55% of first four weeks average). So if we have half of the monthly totals to date it will reach 75%. (that includes anything already fallen today) … SUN will continue on down towards 95%.

A September forecast contest will appear some time soon, just thinking about a bonus question for it.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2025 01:08PM

IMT has finished on 16.5 C.

PRC looks to be around 67-68 per cent of normal, despite the late waves of moisture … Valentia got above normal and a few other locations were close, southeast closer to half of normal. Key point is that scoring will be off 77 per cent as a form of minimum progression for all forecasts. Sunshine did fairly well yesterday but I expect the final tally there will be in the range 95-100 per cent. I don't think it ever got below that 7.7 C min reported earlier in the thread.

The preliminary scoring can be adjusted later. I am guessing today is a bank holiday and therefore monthly summary won't be available until 3rd? If I'm wrong about the holiday it will be showing up tomorrow. Scoring will be confirmed after I have a chance to check the numbers there.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2025 08:49AM

I discovered that there was no bank holiday on 1st so now I was able to verify the data for scoring at 1100h … turns out there was a MIN of 6.5 on the 10th which we did not spot but that is still well above our forecast range, so MIN has been scored by min progression … final values are

IMT 16.5 _ MAX 28.1 _ MIN 6.5 _ PRC 069 _ SUN 098 _

scoring was all okay except for one or two SUN scores that were not multiples of five. Table is now in scoring order.

Confirmed scoring for August 2025

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__max gust 4th__ TOTAL

Artane2002 __________24 _ 14 _ 20^_ 11 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 83

waterways ___________23 _ 14 _ 18^_ 12 _ 10 ___ 05 _____ 82

Joe Public ___________ 19 _ 20 _ 10^_ 10 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 77

Tae laidir ____________ 23 _ 13 _ 16^_ 03 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 74

Jpmarn _____________ 21 _ 19 _ 11^_ 07 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 72

WolfeEire ____________ 14 _ 16 _ 15^_ 06 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 69

John Mac ____________19 _ 19 _ 03^_ 11 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 68

____ Con Sensus _____ 20 _ 14 _ 10^_ 08 _ 10 ___ 06 _____ 68

Mr stonewall _________ 23 _ 13 _ 07^_ 13 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 65

Dacogawa ___________ 23 _ 19 _ 07^_ 01 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 65

Sunflower3 __________ 18 _ 20 _ 06^_ 11 _ 09 ___ 01 _____ 65

MrSkinner ___________ 18 _ 05 _ 19^_ 08 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 64

Appledrop ___________ 22 _ 14 _ 04^_ 11 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 63

Kindred Spirit ________ 23 _ 10 _ 09^_ 08 _ 08 ___ 04 _____ 62

adam240610 _________18 _ 04 _ 15^_ 07 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 62

Bsal ________________ 17 _ 00 _ 17^_ 10 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 60

DOCARCH ___________ 22 _ 11 _ 00 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 55

Cornerstonelad _______ 21 _ 09 _ 13^_ 01 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 55

M.T. Cranium _________ 15 _ 11 _ 02^_ 15 _ 09 ___ 03 _____ 55

Dasa29 _____________ 20 _ 09 _ 04^_ 04 _ 10 ___ 06 _____ 53

Gonzo ______________ 17 _ 11 _ 12^_ 02 _ 08 ___ 02 _____ 52

____ NormaL _________ 13 _ 04 _ 09^_ 07 _ 10 ___ 02 _____ 45

Pauldry ______________15 _ 00 _ 02^_ 01 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 33

minimum progression was needed for MIN and PRC … PRC was scored off 77% giving all but lowest scores a 3-point boost, MIN was scored by rank order and the boosts are quite generous as no forecasts would have scored points by raw scores.

… annual updates will follow soon, just about finished them now actually …

Congrats to Artane2002, waterways and Joe Public who led scoring and all moved up several spots in the annual scoring race.

====================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max gust 4th

waterways ___________16.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 44 kt

Artane2002 __________16.6 _ 28.7 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 45 kt

Mr stonewall _________ 16.3 _ 28.8 _ 2.3 _ 082 _ 112 ___ 39 kt

Dacogawa ___________ 16.3 _ 28.0 _ 2.3 _ 118 _ 084 ___ 50 kt

Tae laidir ____________ 16.3 _ 27.4 _ 3.2 _ 114 _ 092 ___ 55 kt

Kindred Spirit ________ 16.3 _ 27.1 _ 2.5 _ 098 _ 107 ___ 43 kt

Appledrop ___________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 44 kt

DOCARCH ___________ 16.2 _ 27.2 _ 0.9 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 48 kt

Cornerstonelad _______ 16.1 _ 29.2 _ 2.9 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 43 kt

Jpmarn _____________ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.7 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 45 kt

Dasa29 _____________ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 45 kt

____ Con Sensus _____ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 099 _ 100 ___ 45 kt

John Mac ____________15.9 _ 28.2 _ 1.9 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 52 kt

Joe Public ___________ 15.9 _ 28.1 _ 2.6 _ 093 _ 110 ___ 56 kt

Sunflower3 __________ 15.8 _ 28.1 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 36 kt

MrSkinner ___________ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.7 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 44 kt

adam240610 _________15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 49 kt

Gonzo ______________ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 116 _ 087 ___ 39 kt

Bsal ________________ 15.7 _ 25.6 _ 3.4 _ 091 _ 104 ___ 48 kt

Pauldry ______________15.5 _ 30.1 _ 1.7 _ 123 _ 083 ___ 61 kt

M.T. Cranium _________ 15.5 _ 27.2 _ 1.7 _ 077 _ 095 ___ 42 kt

WolfeEire ____________ 15.4 _ 28.5 _ 3.0 _ 103 _ 100 ___ 53 kt

____ NormaL _________ 15.3 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 38 kt

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2025 12:49PM

Annual scoring update _ January to August 2025

Starting this month, best 7/8 will be used to order the table, and then in September it will be best 7/9, with the two low scores eliminated for the rest of the contest year (as prime table determinant). Totals will still be ranked at start of each row, but now it's the final columns used to order the table.

Rank (prev)_Total_FORECASTER _Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug _7/8 (rank, prev)

_01_02 _ 560 _ Artane2002 ___ 65_ 50_ 66_ 67_ 68 _75 _86 _83 __510 _1 (2)

_02_01 _ 554 _ Dacogawa ____ 88_ 60_ 79_ 70_ 62_ 65 _65 _65 __494 _2 (1)

2.7_ 2.7_ 535 _ Con Sensus ___ 87_ 53_ 67_ 64_ 64_ 56 _76 _68 __482 3.5 (4.2)

_03_04 _ 531 _ Jpmarn ______ 68_ 52_ 77_ 65_ 71_ 41 _85 _72 __490 _3 (3)

_04_03 _ 526 _ MrSkinner ____ 81_ 66_ 58_ 56_ 51 _60 _90 _64 __475 _4 (5)

_08_06 _ 505 _ Gonzo _______ 78_ 38_ 68_ 70_ 62 _61 _76 _52 __467 _5 (4)

_05_05 _ 512 _Cornerstonelad _48_ 50_ 64_ 77_ 58 _80 _80 _55 __464 _6 (6)

_06_12 _ 511 _ waterways ____62_ 50_ 59_ 65_ 70 _55 _68 _82 __461 _7 (12)

_09_09 _ 501 _ Mr Stonewall __ 80_ 47_ 64_ 66_ 58 _43 _78 _65 __458 _8 (8)

_07_t07_ 506 _ WolfeEire _____72_ 53_ 69_ 53_ 67_ 54 _69 _69 __453 _9 (10)

_12_t07 _ 492 _ DOCARCH ____77_ 61_ 78_ 48_ 75_ 41 _57 _55 __451 10 (7)

_11_t10_ 494 _ Kindred Spirit _ 83_ 55_ 56_ 63_ 47_ 71 _57 _62 __447 11 (9)

_10_t10_ 495 _ Appledrop ____ 71_ 61_ 63_ 62_ 57 _49 _69 _63 __446 12 (11)

_13_13 _ 491 _ john mac _____ 57_ 62_ 56_ 70_ 48_ 52 _78 _68 __443 13 (14)

_15_14 _ 472 _ Adam240610__34_ 61_ 65_ 66_ 53_ 51 _80 _62 __438 14 (13)

_14_15 _ 480 _ Tae laidir _____62_ 49_ 44_ 55_ 57_ 75 _64 _74 __436 15 (15)

_17_19 _ 459 _ Joe Public ____ 31_ 49_ 42_ 75_ 63_ 44 _78 _77 __428 16 (17)

_16_16 _ 470 _ Sunflower3 ___ 73_ 45_ 45_ 61_ 56_ 60 _65 _65 __425 17 (16)

_20_21 _ 403 _ Bsal (7/8)_____65_ 58_ 48_ 58 _ — _61 _53 _60 __403 18 (18t)

_18_17 _ 444 _ M.T. Cranium __48_ 46_ 70_ 57_ 50_ 52 _66 _55 __398 19 (18t)

_19_18 _ 436 _ Dasa29 ______ 69_ 54_ 43_ 49_ 47_ 54 _67 _53 __393 20 (20)

19.5_19.5_419___ NormaL____ 72_ 48_ 64_ 57_ 40_ 42 _51 _45 __379 20.5(20.8)

_21_20 _ 399 _ Pauldry _______58_ 63_ 61_ 55_ 32_ 41 _55 _34 __367 21 (21)

_22_22 _ 323 _ Esposito (6/8) _ 46_ 64_ —_ 63_ 52 _ 49 _49 _ — __323 22 (22)

=======================[]====================

no longer eligible for best 10/12

_23_23 _ 252 _sryanbruen (4/8) _80_ 38_ 72_ 62_ —_ — _ — _ _— __252

_24_24 _ 246 _200motels (5/8) _ 53 _— _ 62 _— _ 30 _ 56 _45 _ — __246 — (23)

_25_25 __ 57 _ Icicle2025 (1/8) _ 57 _ — _—_ —_ — _ — _ — _ — ___ 57

_26_26 __ 32 _ JCXBXC (1/8) ___ 32 _ — _—_ —_ — _ — _ — _ — ___ 32

__________________________[]_____________________

Category Scoring for January to August 2025

FORECASTER ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_TOTAL

Max possible ____200_160_ 160 _ 120 _ 80 _ 80 ____ 800

Artane2002 _____165 _108 _128 _72 _ 51 _ 40_ 564-4=560

Dacogawa ______162 _ 97 _105 _ 69 _ 61 _ 60 _____ 554

___Con Sensus __159 _ 95 _101 _ 69 _ 60 _ 51 _____ 535

Jpmarn ________ 142 _117 _ 80 _ 69 _ 66 _ 57 _____ 531

MrSkinner ______ 158 _ 97 _ 89 _ 80 _ 59 _ 43 _____ 526

Cornerstonelad __ 155 _ 96 _ 96 _ 49 _ 66 _ 50 _____ 512

waterways ______155 _ 96 _ 81 _ 67 _ 53 _ 59 _____ 511

WolfeEire _______141 _110 _ 98 _ 53 _ 58 _ 48_ 508-2=506

Gonzo _________ 157 _ 97 _ 86 _ 60 _ 64 _ 44_ 508-3=505

Mr Stonewall ____ 153 _111 _84 _ 63 _ 50 _ 41_ 502-1=501

Appledrop ______ 152 _102 _ 86 _ 54 _ 51 _ 50 _____ 495

Kindred Spirit ___ 166 _ 71 _ 79 _ 76 _ 51 _ 51 _____ 494

DOCARCH ______ 140 _ 81 _ 89 _ 66 _ 59 _ 57 _____ 492

john mac ______ 150 _ 89 _ 86 _ 71 _ 50 _ 45 _____ 491

Tae laidir ______ 159 _ 74 _ 83 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _____ 480

Adam240610 ___146 _ 73 _ 90 _ 56 _ 66 _ 49 _480-8=472

Sunflower3 _____149 _ 80 _ 85 _ 76 _ 52 _ 28 _____ 470

Joe Public______ 121 _102_ 71 _ 69 _ 62 _ 38_ 463-4=459

M.T. Cranium ___ 132 _ 70 _ 64 _ 68 _ 63 _ 47 _____ 444

Dasa29 ________148 _ 50 _ 82 _ 55 _ 52 _ 49 _____ 436

___Normal ______93 _ 67 _ 88 _ 76 _ 49 _ 46 _____ 419

Bsal (7/8)_____ 133 _ 33 _102 _ 64 _ 48 _ 23 _____ 403

Pauldry _______ 142 _ 37 _ 62 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _401-2=399

Esposito (6/8) __ 113 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 41 _ 33 _324-1=323

sryanbruen (4/8)_77 _ 51 _ 47 _ 26 _ 25 _ 26 _____ 252

200motels (5/8) _84 _ 29 _ 19 _ 38 _ 37 _ 41 _248-2=246

Icicle2025 (1/8) _ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 _ 08 ______57

JCXBXC (1/8) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 _ 03 ___40-8=32

Top scores in categories are bold type, seconds are bold italics, third are regular italic.

Any designations for Con Sensus or NormaL are independent of forecaster score designations.

IMT, MAX and MIN have first, second and third place designations. (Bsal third despite 7/8 entries)

Con Sensus now one point below third for MIN.

PRC has two tied second, therefore no third place designated. NormaL is also tied second for PRC.

SUN has three tied for first, no second or third designated.

BONUS has a first, second and third place designations.

_________________

If you add the six highest category scores it comes to 618, a 58 point increase on leader Artane2002 who holds a first and a second place category scores. The differential is actually 54 points but increases to 58 because of late penalties.

Note Bsal has missed one contest and is now in third place for MIN, so the average score is about equal to first place.

=======================

Congrats to Artane2002 now in a slight lead over previous leader Dacogawa in both total score and best 7/8. Looks like a fairly tight contest shaping up as we enter the autumn.

M.T. Cranium · 03-09-2025 01:12AM

Four Seasons Summer 2025 Contest Update

12 points for top total score, 10 down to 3 for next eight in rank order, also 3 for any others >180, two points for all entering three contests, and one point for anyone entering two of three.

Due to space limitations I don't list your three summer monthly scores, but I checked my sums carefully as I entered them from the annual scoring table above.

FORECASTER _______ Winter Pts __ Spring Pts __ Summer Pts __ TOTAL Points

Dacogawa __________ 220 __12 ____ 211 _ 10 ___ 195 _ 3 _____25

Artane2002 _________ 174 __ 2 ____ 201 __ 9t___ 244 _12 ____ 23

____ Con Sensus ____ 210 __10 ____ 195 __ 5 ___ 200 _ 6 _____ 21

Jpmarn ____________ 165 __ 2 ____ 213 _ 12 ___ 198 _ 5t_____ 19

MrSkinner __________ 202 __ 8 ____ 165 __ 2 ___ 214 _ 9 _____ 19

Cornerstonelad ______ 173 __ 2 ____ 199 __ 6 ___ 215 _10 _____18

DOCARCH __________ 196 __ 7 ____ 201 __ 9t___ 153 _ 2 _____ 18

Kindred Spirit _______ 206 __10 ____ 166 __ 3 ___ 190 _ 3 _____ 16

Appledrop __________ 204 __ 9 ____ 192 __ 4 ___ 181 _ 3 _____ 16

Gonzo _____________ 188 __ 5 ____ 200 __ 7 ___ 189 _ 3 _____ 15

waterways __________164 __ 2 ____ 194 __ 5 ___ 205 _ 7 _____ 14

Tae laidir ___________ 185 __ 3 ____ 156 __ 2 ___ 213 _ 8 _____13

Mr Stonewall_________195 __ 6 ____ 188 __ 3 ___ 187 _ 3 _____ 12

Joe Public ___________121 __ 2 ____ 180 __ 3 ___ 199 _ 6 _____11

john mac ___________ 177 __ 2 ____ 174 __ 2 ___ 198 _ 5t_____ 9

WolfeEire ___________ 186 __ 3 ____ 189 __ 3 ___ 192 _ 3 _____ 9

Adam240610 ________154 __ 2 ____ 184 __ 3 ___ 193 _ 3 _____ 8

Pauldry _____________187 __ 4 ____ 148 __ 2 ___ 130 _ 2 _____ 8

Dasa29 ____________ 183 __ 3 ____ 139 __ 2 ___ 174 _ 2 _____ 7

Sunflower3 __________171 __ 2 ____ 162 __ 2 ___ 190 _ 3 _____ 7

M.T. Cranium ________ 170 __ 2 ____ 177 __ 2 ___ 173 _ 2 _____ 6

___ NormaL _________177 __ 2 ____ 161 __ 2 ___ 138 _ 2 _____ 6

Bsal _______________ 179 __ 2 ____ 106 __ 1 ___ 174 _ 2 _____ 5

Esposito ____________173 __ 2 ____ 115 __ 1 ____ 98 _ 1 _____ 4

sryanbruen __________186 __ 3 ____ 134 __ 1 ___— — _ 0 _____ 4

200motels ___________ 53 __ —- ____ 92 __ 1 ___ 101 _ 1 _____ 2

JCXBXC _____________ 83 __ 1 ___ — — __— ___— — _ 0 _____ 1

___________________

Two are now almost tied and well out ahead of the field with one seasonal result to go.

Congrats to Artane2002 for top score in summer, and quite a sporty total too. Dacogawa maintains a two point lead. The forecasters at 18-19 points probably have a chance if those two leaders were both to drop down into 2-3 point territory (which seems unlikely).

Boards weather forecast contest for August 2025

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