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Presidential Election 2025

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,924 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I don't see an SF candidate finishing ahead of Connolly, If they do on the first count it will be the transfers from the elimination of the FF/FG/Lab/Green/Gene Pool candidates that will push Connolly ahead of the SF candidate because there are so many supporters of those parties who would vote for an inanimate carbon rod before voting SF



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,072 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But SF's top priority is a border poll and a united Ireland. Why would they support a far left candidate who will spend most of the election campaign taking about Irish neutrality, NATO, militarisation of the EU, western imperialism etc? I wouldn't buy the idea that Connolly and SF are very similar in their political outlook : the likes of Daly, Wallace and Connolly don't seem to have any links or friendships with members of Sinn Fein.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,228 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I don't see an SF candidate finishing ahead of Connolly

    Only one I would give a better than evens chance of doing so would be Mary Lou. She could afford to act imperious and ignore/patronise Connolly in her campaign.

    there are so many supporters of those parties who would vote for an inanimate carbon rod before voting SF

    Again if it's Mary Lou I think a majority of centrist floating voters would see her as a lesser evil than Connolly



  • Administrators Posts: 56,615 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I think this is their problem.

    SF will know that Connolly can't win, but they also know they don't have anyone other than MLMD who would do any better than her.

    SFs history makes candidate selection very difficult. The older, experienced talent is a big turn off for anyone outside of the traditional SF base. I think they learnt that lesson with McGuinness. The modern, younger talent doesn't yet have the profile or experience for it.

    MLMD is probably the only one with a sniff of a chance, but even then, her chances are slim and it comes with a big risk.

    As for backing Connolly, that'll also be a tough pill to swallow. They will have to come up with something a lot better than "we're backing Connolly because she's not FF or FG."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,121 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Out the presidency, should both run. Interpreting that as stopping her running is very strange.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,140 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Mary Lou or Michelle O'Neill would easily eclipse Connolly on the first and every count.

    But its now unlikely that either of those women will be put forward. I still think Lynn Boylan could also shade Connolly, but it would be a close thing, and Boylan would not win the election outright either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,924 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I would see Connolly as being more appealing to centrists than MLMD. I could be wrong of course

    Connolly is a lot like Michael D without the saw doctors song



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,329 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    I'd say Pearse Doherty is lighting candles and praying that Mary lou puts her name forward. She won't win but also she won't be able to come back as SF leader.Pearse probably believes that he would become leader but again I don't believe he would get that either. If Mary Lou puts her hat in the ring then Matt Carty would be next SF leader..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,329 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    BTW ,you saw it here, from Realdanbreen first!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,924 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    It would be the usual that the finance spokesperson would be the next in line to lead the party. Not a requirement by any stretch but certainly the usual



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,140 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    But sure thats exactly why she/the party decided weeks ago that she wouldn't be going forward.

    That ambiguity about a month back was a shambolic effort to try and goad Micheál Martin into running, which he was never doing anyway.

    And so Sinn Féin will either back Connolly, or run a candidate that is not MLMD.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,894 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I could see MLMD beat Connolly on the first count. I don't see Michelle O'Neill doing the same though. She's too Northern Sinn Fein to get traction in the South I'd say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,140 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    deleted



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,140 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    As a rabid centrist, Fine Gael, Leinster Rugby dad type myself, you are wrong.

    I wouldn't vote for either of them frankly, but MLMD has at least achieved a lot in politics and leads a party, albeit with mixed success.

    Connolly's association with Assad, the Gemmaroid, and Wallace and Daly and her rank disloyalty to Labour in her time, makes her anathema to people like me. Her judgement is terrible, her political positions bonkers, and her behaviour completely untrustworthy.

    So no, I don't see many lower preferences from centrists going her way. Especially by the time this campaign chews her up and spits her out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,140 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You'd be surprised. She was born in Cork and her family connections there are strong.

    And I feel many people regard her more highly as a leader and a statesman from her performance in the top job in the 6 counties. More highly than Mary Lou perhaps, who is a negative campaigner and so utterly dreary to listen to.

    In fact, if I were a Sinn Féin executive member and it was a straight vote to run one of them, I'd pick Michelle O'Neill any day. For many reasons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,072 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Yes, she actually seems warmer and less abrasive than Mary Lou - ML is regularly involved in bad tempered shouting matches in the Dail, it would be hard to imagine MON doing the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,557 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,409 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,674 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    Brace yourselves – Keogan aims to get FIVE onto the Park election ticket https://meathlive.net/2025/08/18/brace-yourselves-keogan-aims-to-get-five-onto-the-park-election-ticket/ #aras25

    Keogan says she is not just backing Sheridan. Keogan now hedging her bets in regard to backlash from her supporters?

    Post edited by expectationlost on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 10,000 ✭✭✭✭blackwhite


    Kepgan aims to get herself mentioned in the papers; and to create clips for social media.

    She won’t be getting anyone onto the ballot, but making noise about it will achieve her two aims above



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,624 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    That is simply not possible without at least 1 of SF,FF or FG agreeing to let their councilors a free vote, and even then she still has to get those councilors on board with her so realistically it would probably require all 3 parties to do this as I doubt she can manage a majority for 20 different county councils unless she has every single councilor available to vote.

    Post edited by VinLieger on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭For Petes Sake


    That is an utterly embarrassing performance from Sean Kelly. You'd think that if he was going to declare then he'd have to have at least secured the Oireachtas members to even make it a contest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,140 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Yeah a very poor scoping exercise by himself and the people in his local organisation.

    They might as well not even bother with the hustings.

    When he quoted that 'a day out of Kerry is a day wasted', he might as well have said that the suggestion of Kelly is a suggestion wasted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,894 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    There won't be hustings, there won't be a vote in FG. Humphreys has the nomination sewn up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,329 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    So just to be clear, prior to the general election Heather felt she no longer had the interest or energy for public office and wanted to "relax a bit". But hey now that McGuinness is out and she has a sniff of getting elected to a mega buck job plus perks she's like a new woman ,full of beans all gung ho, mighty woman altogether!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,557 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Actually, she said she wanted to spend more time with family and do other things.

    Somebody rang Heather and said we have to stop Kelly, please come back methinks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,006 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Agree with that. SK doesn't seem to be in favour with HQ. Similarly, if SF want to change leader and try and address the doldrums they seem to be stuck in, then Mary Lou will be 'asked' to run for President and Matt Carthy will become SF leader.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,329 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    No, the lure of the trough filled with cash, perks, status,more pension, expenses , trumps everything for these people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,557 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Carthy is too young IMO he’ll be kept for another while



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,557 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    In fairness, I know Heather for 30 yrs. She is not like that.



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