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Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 31,326 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    image.png

    It seems like they don't want it either tbh

    Why would they? They take over government after Republicans and improve the situation, but then Republicans get voted back in. This time its a total disaster, one which far too many people are still supporting. When Trump has completely trashed the economy, if history repeats itself, the Dems get in, the Rep. machine blames them for the mess they find, the great uneducated believes it, and another (shallow, anti-intellectual, populist) Trump-type is elected to trash it again.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_by_presidential_party

    This is a Wikipedia article, but quotes government statistics and indepth research. I don't claim to be an economist and cannot argue in any more depth than these figures show, but they do seem to clearly state that Dems are better at economy than Republicans.

    Even Trump said it:

    During a March 2004 interview, Trump stated: "It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans."

    Of course that was during his brief stint as a Democrat, for some reason (mostly his lack of intelligence and character) he didn't believe himself and moved back to Republicanism.

    Edit:

    https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/presidents-as-economic-managers

    This is an interesting article, though 'methinks (the author) doth protest too much'.

    'Its founding editor, Yuval Levin, and authors are typically considered to be conservative and right-wing' (Wikipedia)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,220 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    I feel you are looking at the political system through a European lens.

    e.g., in the last UK parliament we knew that Keir Starmer was the LOTO, so everyone paid attention to and reported on what he said. He had direct questioning rights in parliament to whoever the Conservatives had decided was PM that month. He also had specific people appointed to key roles, basically declaring his potential Cabinet in advance.
    If the government had a 'Foreign Affairs' issue, then David Lammy was the one whose voice mattered, a financial issue - lets ask for Rachel Reeves, Home Office issues - time to get Yvette Cooper on.

    The US doesn't have (and likely will never have) that sort of system. The equivalent of LOTO won't be decided until the primary season of 2027/28.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,541 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    WRT to the cabinet officers, I am ignorant of UK politics. Once one party 'forms government' via elections, 'the party' chooses the cabinet ministers, so in case of coalition you can have ministers from different parties.

    How are they confirmed? Does the Parliament vote for them or the HoL? Is it a rubber-stamping exercise? Are ministers not confirmed and the PM has to nominate others?

    In the US, whoever wins the POTUS nominates cabinet secretaries and the Senate votes on them. First they have to pass committee votes (which is why, to his eternal damnation, the committee run by Bill Cassiday of Louisiana barely, with Cassiday's vote, recommended RFK jr for HHS and the Senate rubber-stamped him for Trump with its slight GQP majority including the VP).

    Then the Senate votes. At least Matt Gaetz didn't get out of committee as the nominee to be Attorney General, though Pam Bondi is no prize, either, she doesn't seem to have the history of pedophilia that Gaetz does.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    In the UK, Cabinet Ministers are not confirmed at all. The PM nominates them, the King appoints them, that's it. They enter into office immediately and start carrying out their functions.

    At any point Parliament can vote no confidence in them, in which event they have to resign (or Parliament is dissolved and an election is called). But it's the reverse of the US position - they're in office unless and until Parliament throws them out. In the US, they don't enter into office until the Senate confirms their nominations.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 37,428 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Not a system without its flaws either. A UK Labour Cabinet Minister, the Minister for Homelessness, had to resign recently after evicting her tenants to sell the property (I think four different units/families), then re-letting the units a few weeks later for about £700 per month more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,541 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Interesting. I knew the PM was powerful but in some ways, this is worse than in the US. In the US, they can occasionally impeach cabinet secretaries or at least bring enough pressure on the POTUS to get rid of them e.g GWB's AG Alberto Gonzales.

    Likewise, Donald Rumsfeld resigned after GWB's 2 Presidency's midterms when the GQP lost both houses, he was the scapegoat though everything came apart for the economy in 2008 and that kicked the GQP to the curb for a couple of years.

    And they can be impeached, the GQP impeached Mayorkas for reasons that were never clear, other than rattle-the-sheep about immigration. There was another impeachment in the 19th century, too. But it's rare. Neither were convicted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Arguably, this is a strength of the UK system, rather than a flaw. If a US Cabinet official, after confirmation, was found to have done something like this, there would be nothing Congress could do. There is no mechanism for retrospectively reversing a confirmation. Cabinet officers can be impeached, but that's incredibly rare. (Last time was in 1876, for taking bribes.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 37,428 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    That's true too. I was thinking more in terms of their appointment to the role being pretty much just decided on by the PM and their advisors with no oversight, where someone who is a landlord and is someone would do something like evicting tenants and jacking up rents would be appointed as Minister for Homelessness. But of course, you don't know in advance they would do such a thing even if they were a landlord (as a hell of a lot of politicians are), and it is easier to get rid of them if they do.

    I just found it really funny that of all ministers, when the UK is suffering as much of a housing crisis as a lot of other countries (our own included), the Minister who was caught doing this, was the Minister for Homelessness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Not only cabinet ministers but Prime Ministers themselves are in a much more tenuous position that US Cabinet officials. It's routine for UK Prime Ministers to have to resign because their political support in Parliament has evaporated — it has happened three times in the last 10 years alone. The only US President that it ever happened to was Richard Nixon, and that was more than 50 years ago.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,562 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    'Yes Minister' couldn't have come up with a funnier bit of satire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 37,428 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Oh to think of the fun Malcolm Tucker would have had with that scenario…

    Untitled Image


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,599 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    I always thought newsom was an empty suit with not much intelligence but his sarcastic tweets are really satisfying. He is a tall white male with hair and relatively good looking, they probably should put him forward as the next candidate , so long as he isn't likely to look like an idiot in a debate with vance. Being from california isn't ideal though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,350 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    All politics are local. In the big cities, you have some degree of anonymity but in smaller towns, which is much of America, everyone soon knows everyone else and if you misrepresent your political allegiance, you can expect that that will become known and I'd imagine you'd then have no shortage of people pointing a finger at you and saying you cannot be trusted and are some sort of a covert operative. That could have implications in how you and your family get to experience living in any particular community.

    I'm not saying it's right, it's a much more healthy system to have multiple parties as we do in Ireland and much of Europe where people sway their allegiance to some margin on the wider spectrum, the bipolar existence of US politics serves absolutely no one except those who want to present binary choices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭Economics101


    The big role of Primaries in the US dates from the Progressive Movement of the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. There was a desire for greater democracy in chosing a party's candidate as apposed to old way of party insiders deciding things "in smoke-filled rooms". Unfortunatley primaries (especially closed ones) have a tendency to favour candidates who are more partisan than centrist. You could say that the current Republican Party has comprehensively gamed the system.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressivism_in_the_United_States



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,430 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Primary system is what gives Trump a lot of his power.

    With the MAGA core under his control he can wield huge control over Senators and Congress people - He knows that he can direct his "base" to vote for the candidate of his choice and in closed Primary States that's enough to decide the outcome.

    Because they have to get through the Primary before the actual election , they are all terrified of him so they acquiesce to his nonsense in return for getting to keep their cushy number..



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.ft.com/content/8af56329-6dbe-4f64-a21e-34c2144d10be

    Terrible news for the Trump administration. Inflation running rampant, coming in at 3.3% versus 2.5% expected. The impact of tariffs is only starting to be felt too.

    Inflation taking off as the labour market cools significantly. Their economy is screwed. Interest rates will need to rise, not fall as demanded by the administration. Only so long Trump can get away with blaming Biden.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,535 ✭✭✭✭Jelle1880


    What do you mean terrible news ? They'll just make up their own numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,583 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    "Inflation running rampant, coming in at 3.3% versus 2.5% expected. "

    That's not terrible news at all. He'll just fire the person whose job it is to tell people that and replace him with someone who will say what Trump wants.

    And some posters here would say there's nothing wrong with that, as he has the power to fire people ...

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 820 ✭✭✭Pdoghue


    Listened to Newsom on the Diary of a CEO podcast recently. He's an impressive guy, thoughtful, compassionate, and articulate, basically traits Trump lacks.

    Post edited by Pdoghue on


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    It won't be long until TACO declares victory and reverses the tariffs. I give it until October'ish, maybe even next month. An unexpected rate increase by the fed will probably get the ball rolling.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,430 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    What we're looking at is the very real prospect of Stagflation - Inflation AND a shrinking economy and increasing unemployment.

    All the indicators suggest that that is where the US is headed.

    How they'd manage to spin that will be interesting to see..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 346 ✭✭somenergy


    The previous tarif policy brought the great depression

    The appeasement to putin is the same as to Hitler and that lead to the second world war

    Art of the deal is working with Russia and closing out 20× Europe

    American soon to be 2nd or 3nd in the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    This is also before the most recent increases in tariffs came in. With most countries going from 10-15% and some even higher at 39% (Switzerland), Brazil (50%) etc....

    Double edged sword, inflation increasing and the jobs market cooling. As someone mentioned it will be stagflation, aka the Trumpslump.

    There's also the issue of the de minimums being dropped from $800 (it was far too generous) to $0 so average Americans can no longer ship online and order cheap products from anywhere in the world. I'm not sure that would tie into the official inflation figures though. It's more about how people feel better or worse off.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,717 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I sit corrected. Looks like the troops wandering around DC (at least in the tourist areas) are unarmed.

    Makes basically zero sense to me, and seems to defy most precedent but OK.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭Economics101


    If Trump gats a tame Fed to cut interest rates because of a cooling labour market,at a time when inflation is rising, then the real fun starts: a furhter boost to inflation. It reminds me of the monetary policy of Trump's fellow autocrat, Erdogan, and we know how that went.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,562 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Well, "highest form of wit, lowest form of humour" and all that.

    However, I think Newsom would be wiser to end his sarcastic tweets with a few facts without the emulation of Trump's bullshit. Carry on trolling that bloated orange prick, by all means, but end the tweet with a "seriously though…" and correct Trump's lies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,562 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    "We inherited a bad economy…Biden's economy…everyone was out of work. But we're in the middle of fixing it right now. I promise in two weeks we'll have the biggest, bestest, economy that we've ever seen. We'll increase it by 2000% and create a billion new jobs."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,924 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    This is how 10 years from now, randomly capitalised insane Trump tweets becomes the only acceptable, standard form of political discourse in the USA

    (just like in England, you have to constantly whitter on about 'right honourable' honourable gentlemen and 'most honourable', and how the PMQs always start with the Prime Minister saying this banal sentence "

    “This morning I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in this House, I shall have further such meetings later today."

    Ban billionaires



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,916 ✭✭✭threeball


    After the explosions in the steel plant in Pennsylvania (2 dead, 10 injured) are we likely to see the issues stem from the gutting of OSHA and a relaxing of health and safety under Trump.



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