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Boards weather forecast contest for August 2025

  • 30-07-2025 04:00AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,191 ✭✭✭✭


    Predict ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS (see text below)

    (details) _ Normal ___ 15.3 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ from 00z 1 Aug charts

    M.T. Cranium _______ 15.5 _ 27.2 _ 1.7 _ 077 _ 095 ___ 42 kt

    (Bonus — predict maximum wind gust (knots) to be observed at any of the regular met.ie observing locations on Monday, 4th August (in case the event speeds up or slows down, will take the max gust for Sunday 3rd, Monday or Tuesday 5th for verification). NormaL will play off my reading of 00z GFS and ECM blend at contest deadline, will mention that in table of forecasts.

    (Note — I copied this format from last month's contest (except for a different bonus question and prediction from me), no details are given here on what to predict, regular contest entrants will know without reading this (predict the five values in the above forecasts before the bonus) and any required explanations of what these are can be found in June contest's opening post. PRC and SUN are percentages rather than actual values.

    Deadline as always 0300 of 1st (Aug), late penalties 1 point every 4 hours or significant fraction, to 36h, then 1 point per hour.

    We haven't had a short-range real forecasting bonus question for a while, hoping this one does not fizzle out but if so, I reserve the option of changing my forecast above. No amended forecasts (for bonus) will be scored after table of forecasts is created on 2nd.

    Good luck !!



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,798 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _______ 15.9 _ 28.1 _ 2.6 _ 93 _ 110 ___ 56 kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,791 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal ___ 15.7 _ 25.6 _ 3.4 _ 91 _ 104 ___ 48 kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ___ 16.6 _ 28.7 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 45 kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 58 ✭✭Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad __16.1___29.2__2.9___120__85___43kt



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,617 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    WolfeEire___ 15.4 _ 28.5 _ 3 _ 103 _ 100 ___ 53kt

    www.weatheire.com



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,758 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo___ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 116 _ 087 ___ 39kt



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,222 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 16.2 _ 27.2 _ 0.9 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 48kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 _______ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 45kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 205 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3______ 15.8_ 28.1_ 2.1 _ 90 _ 105 ___ 36 kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,172 ✭✭✭John mac


    JOHN MAC _______ 15.9 _ 28.2 _ 1.9 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 52 kt



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 395 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ___ 16.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 44 kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 359 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 16.3 ___ 27.1 ___ 2.5 ___ 98 ___ 107 ___ 43 Kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 766 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 16.3 _ 27.4 _ 3.2 _ 114 _ 92 _ 55Kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,868 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 16.3 _ 28 _ 2.3 _ 118 _ 84 ___ 50kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.7 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 45 kt

    Please check out my varied content on YouTube.com/@jpmarn. That’s includes some weather.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,171 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall_____16.3____28.8____2.3___82____112___39kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610____15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.0_ 100 _ 100 _ 49kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 7,050 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop16.2____27.5___2.0___90____112____

    44kt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 411 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner___15.8___26.6___3.7___99___93___44



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,606 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry___15.5___30.1__1.7___123___83___61



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,191 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    NormaL will play off 38 knots for the bonus question. It now appears that the storm is heading further north, not necessarily weaker — the Sunday to Tuesday safety net for timing the event now appears unnecessary and the max wind gust is very likely to be during the day on Monday anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,191 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for August 2025

    FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max gust 4th

    waterways ___________16.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 44 kt

    Artane2002 __________16.6 _ 28.7 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 45 kt

    Mr stonewall _________ 16.3 _ 28.8 _ 2.3 _ 082 _ 112 ___ 39 kt

    Dacogawa ___________ 16.3 _ 28.0 _ 2.3 _ 118 _ 084 ___ 50 kt

    Tae laidir ____________ 16.3 _ 27.4 _ 3.2 _ 114 _ 092 ___ 55 kt

    Kindred Spirit ________ 16.3 _ 27.1 _ 2.5 _ 098 _ 107 ___ 43 kt

    Appledrop ___________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 44 kt

    DOCARCH ___________ 16.2 _ 27.2 _ 0.9 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 48 kt

    Cornerstonelad _______ 16.1 _ 29.2 _ 2.9 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 43 kt

    Jpmarn _____________ 16.1 _ 28.2 _ 2.7 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 45 kt

    Dasa29 _____________ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 45 kt

    ____ Con Sensus _____ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 099 _ 100 ___ 45 kt

    John Mac ____________15.9 _ 28.2 _ 1.9 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 52 kt

    Joe Public ___________ 15.9 _ 28.1 _ 2.6 _ 093 _ 110 ___ 56 kt

    Sunflower3 __________ 15.8 _ 28.1 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 36 kt

    MrSkinner ___________ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.7 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 44 kt

    adam240610 _________15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 49 kt

    Gonzo ______________ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 2.8 _ 116 _ 087 ___ 39 kt

    Bsal ________________ 15.7 _ 25.6 _ 3.4 _ 091 _ 104 ___ 48 kt

    Pauldry ______________15.5 _ 30.1 _ 1.7 _ 123 _ 083 ___ 61 kt

    M.T. Cranium _________ 15.5 _ 27.2 _ 1.7 _ 077 _ 095 ___ 42 kt

    WolfeEire ____________ 15.4 _ 28.5 _ 3.0 _ 103 _ 100 ___ 53 kt

    ____ NormaL _________ 15.3 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 38 kt

    ====================

    The group consensus then is for a rather warm month with average rainfall and sunshine, and for the Monday wind gusts to be significant but not intense (a few disagree on that).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,514 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Gust of 55kt recorded at Malin Head at 0900 4th.

    Please check out my varied content on YouTube.com/@jpmarn. That’s includes some weather.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,191 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I saw 56 knots on a map in the storm thread, but either way, I think Joe Public and Tae laidir would take the top score for this one. If tomorrow's station report confirms either 55 or 56 (or 57) then the scoring will look like this:

    10 _ Joe Public (56), Tae laidir (55)

    9 __ WolfeEire (53), John Mac (52), Pauldry (61) _8 pts if 55

    8 ___ Dacogawa (50), Adam240610 (49)

    7 ____ DOCARCH and Bsal (48)

    6 ____ JPmarn, Artane2002, Dasa29, Con Sensus (45)

    5 ____ waterways, Appledrop, MrSkinner (44)

    4 ____ Kindred Spirit, Cornerstonelad (43)

    3 _____ MTC (42)

    2 _____ Gonzo, MrStonewall (39)

    1 _____ NormaL (38), Sunflower3 (36)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,191 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week …

    IMT 15.4 (normal for 1-7 Aug).

    MAX and MIN not tracked yet

    PRC 73% of normal

    SUN 79.5% of normal

    BONUS 55 kt, scored above



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 766 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Shannon Airport 28.1 yesterday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,191 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks …

    IMT 16.6 C (second week 17.7, 2.3 above normal)

    MAX 28.1

    MIN not very

    PRC 50% of normal, second week 27% of normal

    SUN 105% of normal, second week 130% of normal

    BONUS already scored before first week report.



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