Boards weather forecast contest for July 2025

appledrop · 18-07-2025 10:34PM

Finner ended up at 14mm so 18mm not beaten( well unless today(

dacogawa · 21-07-2025 01:36AM

That should go overnight, it's absolutely pouring here on the South Dublin coast…

waterways and JPmarn should get bonus points!

Tae laidir · 22-07-2025 07:23AM

Max achieved was 'only' 11.8mm

M.T. Cranium · 22-07-2025 05:31PM

After three weeks … for some reason the monthly data did not update today (yet) but I only use that to check latest IMT and can work around the missing day by estimating from yesterday's reported mean temps which would likely have brought the 16.68 for 1-20 July down to 16.65. Otherwise I use the weekly agricultural weather data (in the forecast section for no obvious reason) for all the updates and it is current to 21st.

IMT _ 16.6 or 16.7 C (1.3 above normal) _ (third week average 16.5 C, 0.6 above normal) … the predictions going forward are slightly lower especially towards end, but it seems probable that IMT will finish at or above 16.2 C.

MAX 31.1 C _ probably set

MIN 4.8 C _ still watching, slight chance of lower values to come

PRC 145% of normal _ third week average was 290% _ this guarantees an outcome of 100% plus whatever rain falls after today (I included today's known amounts). Some locations in the east have a guaranteed outcome closer to 150 or even 175 per cent but some areas escaped most of the weekend deluge, Ballyhaise to 21st has about 40% of its normal 84 mm for July. As the current numerical models predict about 20% of a month's rainfall to come, the estimated final value for PRC is 120%.

SUN 113% of normal _ third week average 46% _ this would finish near 100% if sunshine improves back to only 74% of average for the remaining ten days. As the forecast looks similar to that, 100% is my current estimate; if it were a bit better than that in next ten days, 102 up to 105% might be a good estimate of where this ends up (that requires an average of 79 to 88%). If it turns out quite cloudy for 22-31 July (50% of normal) then the outcome is 92%. An entirely overcast last ten days results in 77%.

max 1hr rain _ after 18.1 mm was observed at Mace Head, as this was above all forecasts, scoring was already posted, since any higher values would not change the scoring outcome. I missed the Finner 20 mm as discussed above, but that value would not affect scoring anyway.

M.T. Cranium · 29-07-2025 04:23PM

After four weeks …

IMT on 16.6 (fourth week average 16.4, 0.8 above normal)

MAX 31.1

MIN 4.8

PRC 104% (fourth week average 27%)

SUN 100% (fourth week average 62.5%)

max 24h rainfall 18.1 mm (already scored)

A contest thread for August should appear by tomorrow morning.

M.T. Cranium · 01-08-2025 11:48AM

IMT held on at 16.7 (16.66 in fact)

PRC works out to 99% (to be checked a little later)

SUN is probably quite close to 100% also.

I guess with the Monday bank holiday, it will be the 5th of August before we see a monthly summary. I will probably post estimated scoring before that and check it on the 5th.

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2025 10:02AM

Scoring for July 2025

This may need to be adjusted when I have a chance to confirm some estimates on Tuesday 5th. I will hold off on the annual update until after that.

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS ___ TOTAL

__ est values _______ 16.7_31.1_4.8_099_095__ 18.1 mm

Esposito ___________ 15 _ 01 _ 13 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 07 _____ 49

Gonzo _____________19 _ 15 _ 20 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 76

waterways _________ 22 _ 09 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 68

Artane2002 ________ 22 _ 20 _ 19 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 86

Mr Stonewall __(-1) __23 _ 19 _ 18 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 03 _ 79-1=78

Appledrop __________24 _ 11 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 69

Cornerstonelad ______24 _ 11 _ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 80

Tae Laidir __________ 24 _ 01 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 02 _____ 64

john mac __________ 25 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 78

Jpmarn ____________23 _ 20 _ 17 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 85

Dasa29 ____________23 _ 05 _ 12 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 67

adam240610 _______ 22 _ 20 _ 17 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 80

__ Con Sensus ______ 22 _ 11 _ 17 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 76

M.T. Cranium _______ 22 _ 03 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 66

Bsal ______________ 22 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 01 _____ 53

WolfeEire ____ (-2) __ 21 _ 15 _ 12 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 06 _ 71-2=69

Sunflower3 _________ 21 _ 01 _ 17 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 04 _____ 65

Kindred Spirit _______ 20 _ 00 _ 13 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 57

DOCARCH __________ 20 _ 00 _ 13 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 03 _____ 57

200motels __________ 20 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 45

MrSkinner __________ 19 _ 20 _ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 90

Dacogawa __________ 19 _ 04 _ 17 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 65

Joe Public ____(-2) ___17 _ 19 _ 18 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 02 _80-2=78

Pauldry ____________ 16 _ 00 _ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 55

_____ Normal _______ 13 _ 00 _ 07 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 51

MAX scoring was marginally qualified for a slight boost at low end, and so all raw scores were adjusted up by one point, giving the better half of zero scores one point…. Otherwise, scoring was fairly high especially for those who were close on MAX, that was the biggest variable along with the maximum 1h rainfall. To be revisited on 5th, and placed in scoring order etc.

=============

(actualforecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS (max 1h rainfall)

Esposito ___________ 17.7 _ 34.0 _ 4.1 _ 085 _ 130 ___ 14.0 mm

Gonzo _____________17.3 _ 31.7 _ 4.8 _ 083 _ 109 ___ 12.8 mm

waterways _________ 17.0 _ 32.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 18.0 mm

Artane2002 ________ 17.0 _ 31.2 _ 4.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 mm

Mr Stonewall __(-1) __16.9 _ 31.3 _ 4.6 _ 082 _ 111 ___ 11.3 mm

Appledrop __________16.8 _ 30.1 _ 4.1 _ 072 _ 115 ___ 17.0 mm

Cornerstonelad ______16.8 _ 30.1 _ 5.2 _ 102 _ 110 ___ 16.0 mm

Tae Laidir __________ 16.8 _ 28.0 _ 4.2 _ 096 _ 098 ___ 10.0 mm

john mac __________ 16.7 _ 32.1 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ 13.2 mm

Jpmarn ____________16.5 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 18.0 mm

Dasa29 ____________16.5 _ 29.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 12.5 mm

adam240610 _______ 16.4 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 069 _ 107 ___ 16.5 mm

__ Con Sensus ______ 16.4 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 13.2 mm

M.T. Cranium _______ 16.4 _ 29.3 _ 4.5 _ 088 _ 105 ___ 12.5 mm

Bsal ______________ 16.4 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 095 ____ 7.0 mm

WolfeEire ____ (-2) __ 16.3 _ 30.5 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 108 ___ 13.0 mm

Sunflower3 _________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 4.5 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 12.2 mm

Kindred Spirit _______ 16.2 _ 27.8 _ 4.1 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 11.5 mm

DOCARCH __________16.2 _ 27.3 _ 4.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11.3 mm

200motels __________16.2 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 091 _ 117 ___ 14.0 mm

MrSkinner __________16.1 _ 31.0 _ 4.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.0 mm

Dacogawa __________16.1 _ 29.4 _ 4.5 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 17.0 mm

Joe Public ____(-2) __ 15.9 _ 31.3 _ 4.6 _ 099 _ 099 ____ 9.9 mm

Pauldry ____________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 103 ___ 17.5 mm

_____ Normal ______ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 mm

=============

M.T. Cranium · 05-08-2025 11:10PM

The above scoring is now confirmed, will repost in scoring order and add the annual update.

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS ___ TOTAL

__ confirmed values __16.7_31.1_4.8_099_095__ 18.1 mm

MrSkinner __________19 _ 20 _ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 90

Artane2002 ________ 22 _ 20 _ 19 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 86

Jpmarn ____________23 _ 20 _ 17 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 85

Cornerstonelad ______24 _ 11 _ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 80

adam240610 _______ 22 _ 20 _ 17 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 08 _____ 80

Joe Public ____(-2)___17 _ 19 _ 18 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 02 _80-2=78

john mac __________ 25 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 78

Mr Stonewall __(-1) __23 _ 19 _ 18 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 03 _79-1=78

Gonzo _____________19 _ 15 _ 20 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 76

__ Con Sensus ______22 _ 11 _ 17 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 76

WolfeEire ____ (-2) __ 21 _ 15 _ 12 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 06 _71-2=69

Appledrop __________24 _ 11 _ 13 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 69

waterways _________ 22 _ 09 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 68

Dasa29 ____________23 _ 05 _ 12 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 67

M.T. Cranium _______ 22 _ 03 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 05 _____ 66

Sunflower3 _________21 _ 01 _ 17 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 04 _____ 65

Dacogawa __________19 _ 04 _ 17 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 65

Tae Laidir __________ 24 _ 01 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 02 _____ 64

Kindred Spirit _______20 _ 00 _ 13 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 57

DOCARCH __________20 _ 00 _ 13 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 03 _____ 57

Pauldry ____________16 _ 00 _ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 55

Bsal ______________ 22 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 01 _____ 53

_____ Normal ______ 13 _ 00 _ 07 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 51

Esposito ___________ 15 _ 01 _ 13 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 07 _____ 49

200motels __________20 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 45

MAX scoring was marginally qualified for a slight boost at low end, and so all raw scores were adjusted up by one point, giving the better half of zero scores one point…. Otherwise, scoring was fairly high especially for those who were close on MAX, that was the biggest variable along with the maximum 1h rainfall.

Congrats to MrSkinner, Artane2002 and JPmarn, all breaking 85 this month.

=============

M.T. Cranium · 06-08-2025 01:01AM

Annual scoring update _ January to July 2025

Starting next month, best 7/8 will be used to order the table, and then in September it will be best 7/9, with the two low scores eliminated for the rest of the contest year (as prime table determinant). Totals will still be ranked.

I have added best 6/7 in brackets after totals below; not ranked now but can use these for "previous" ranks next month.

Rank (prev)_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul __ TOTAL

_01 _01 _ Dacogawa ______ 88_ 60_ 79_ 70_ 62_ 65 _65 ____ 489 (429)

_02 _ 02 _ Artane2002 _____65_ 50_ 66_ 67_ 68 _75 _86 ____ 477 (427)

2.7_ 2.0___ Con Sensus ___ 87_ 53_ 67_ 64_ 64_ 56 _76 ____ 467 (414)

_03 _08 _ MrSkinner ______ 81_ 66_ 58_ 56_ 51 _60 _90 ____ 462 (411)

_04 _07 _ Jpmarn ________ 68_ 52_ 77_ 65_ 71_ 41 _85 ____ 459 (418)

_05 _t04 _ Cornerstonelad __48_ 50_ 64_ 77_ 58 _80 _80 ____ 457 (409)

_06 _t04 _ Gonzo_________ 78_ 38_ 68_ 70_ 62 _61 _76 ____ 453 (415)

t07 _03 _ DOCARCH ______ 77_ 61_ 78_ 48_ 75_ 41 _57 ____ 437 (396)

t07 _t07 _ WolfeEire ______ 72_ 53_ 69_ 53_ 67_ 54 _69 ____ 437 (384)

_09 _06 _ Mr Stonewall ____80_ 47_ 64_ 66_ 58 _43 _78 ____ 436 (393)

t10 _06 _Kindred Spirit ____ 83_ 55_ 56_ 63_ 47_ 71 _57 ____ 432 (385)

t10 _10 _ Appledrop _______71_ 61_ 63_ 62_ 57 _49 _69 ____ 432 (383)

_12 _11 _ waterways ______62_ 50_ 59_ 65_ 70 _55 _68 ____ 429 (379)

_13 _13 _ john mac _______57_ 62_ 56_ 70_ 48_ 52 _78 ____ 423 (375)

_14 _16 _ Adam240610 ___ 34_ 61_ 65_ 66_ 53_ 51 _80 ____ 410 (376)

_15 _14 _ Tae laidir _______62_ 49_ 44_ 55_ 57_ 75 _64 ____ 406 (362)

_16 _15 _ Sunflower3 _____73_ 45_ 45_ 61_ 56_ 60 _65 ____ 405 (360)

_17 _17 _ M.T. Cranium ___ 48_ 46_ 70_ 57_ 50_ 52 _66 ____ 389 (343)

_18 _18 _ Dasa29 ________69_ 54_ 43_ 49_ 47_ 54 _67 ____ 383 (340)

_19 _20 _ Joe Public ______31_ 49_ 42_ 75_ 63_ 44 _78 ____ 382 (351)

19.5_17.0_ NormaL_______72_ 48_ 64_ 57_ 40_ 42 _51 ____ 374 (334)

_20 _19 _ Pauldry ________58_ 63_ 61_ 55_ 32_ 41 _55 ____ 365 (333)

_21 _21 _ Bsal (6/7)______ 65_ 58_ 48_ 58 _ — _ 61 _53 ____343 (343)

_22 _22 _ Esposito (6/7) __ 46_ 64_ —_ 63_ 52 _ 49 _49 ____ 323 (323)

_23 _23 _ sryanbruen (4/7)_80_ 38_ 72_ 62_ —_ — _ — _____ 252

_24 _24 _ 200motels (5/7) _53 _— _ 62 _— _ 30 _ 56 _45 ____246 (246)

_25 _25 _ Icicle2025 (1/7) _ 57 _ — _—_ —_ — _ — _ — _____ 57

_26 _26 _ JCXBXC (1/7) ___ 32 _ — _—_ —_ — _ — _ — _____ 32

__________________________[]_____________________

Category Scoring for January to July 2025

FORECASTER ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_TOTAL

Dacogawa ______139 _ 78 _ 98 _ 68 _ 54 _ 52 _____ 489

Artane2002 _____141 _84 _108 _61 _ 43 _ 34_ 481-4=477

___Con Sensus __139 _ 81 _ 91 _ 61 _ 50 _ 45 _____ 467

MrSkinner ______140 _ 92 _ 70 _ 72 _ 50 _ 38 _____ 462

Jpmarn ________ 121 _ 98 _ 69 _ 62 _ 58 _ 51 _____ 459

Cornerstonelad __134 _ 87 _ 83 _ 48 _ 59 _ 46 _____ 457

Gonzo _________140 _ 86 _ 74 _ 58 _ 56 _ 42_ 456-3=453

DOCARCH ______118 _ 70 _ 89 _ 59 _ 51 _ 50 _____ 437

WolfeEire ______ 127 _ 94 _ 83 _ 47 _ 48 _ 40_ 439-2=437

Mr Stonewall ___ 130 _ 98 _ 77 _ 50 _ 43 _ 39_ 437-1=436

Kindred Spirit ___143 _ 61 _ 70 _ 68 _ 43 _ 47 _____ 432

Appledrop ______130 _ 88 _ 82 _ 43 _ 44 _ 45 _____ 432

waterways _____ 132 _ 82 _ 63 _ 55 _ 43 _ 54 _____ 429

john mac ______ 131 _ 70 _ 83 _ 60 _ 42 _ 37 _____ 423

Adam240610 ___128 _ 69 _ 75 _ 49 _ 56 _ 41 _418-8=410

Tae laidir ______ 136 _ 61 _ 67 _ 58 _ 50 _ 34 _____ 406

Sunflower3 _____131 _ 60 _ 79 _ 65 _ 43 _ 27 _____ 405

M.T. Cranium ___ 117 _ 59 _ 62 _ 53 _ 54 _ 44 _____ 389

Dasa29 ________128 _ 41 _ 78 _ 51 _ 42 _ 43 _____ 383

Joe Public______ 102 _ 82 _ 61 _ 59 _ 54 _ 28_ 386-4=382

___Normal _____ 80 _ 63 _ 79 _ 69 _ 39 _ 44 _____ 374

Pauldry _______ 127 _ 37 _ 60 _ 41 _ 49 _ 53_ 367-2=365

Bsal (6/7)_____ 116 _ 33 _ 85 _ 54 _ 39 _ 16 _____ 343

Esposito (6/7) __ 113 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 41 _ 33 _ 324-1=323

sryanbruen (4/7)_77 _ 51 _ 47 _ 26 _ 25 _ 26 _____ 252

200motels (5/7) _84 _ 29 _ 19 _ 38 _ 37 _ 41 _248-2=246

Icicle2025 (1/7) _ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 _ 08 ______57

JCXBXC (1/7) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 _ 03 ___40-8=32

Top scores in categories are bold type, seconds are bold italics, third are regular italic.

Any designations for Con Sensus or NormaL are independent of forecaster score designations.

Two tied third for IMT

Two tied first for MAX means no second place designated.

MIN has first, second and third place designations. Con Sensus also third MIN.

PRC has two tied second, therefore no third place designated. NormaL is also third for PRC.

SUN has two tied for third.

BONUS has a first, second and third place designations.

_________________

If you add the six highest category scores it comes to 534, a 45 point increase on leader Dacogawa who holds two seconds and one third.

Note Bsal has missed one contest but is still in fourth place for MIN, so the average score is about equal to second place.

=======================

The annual contest has tightened up considerably with a number of forecasters making some inroads on Dacogawa's previous margin, and there are a few changes in ranks.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2025 11:43AM

In checking August category scoring I noted Artane2002 had a 10-pt error posted for MAX above, should be 94 not 84, and that was tied third at the time. The totals are correct, and so are the posted monthly scores etc.

Boards weather forecast contest for July 2025

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