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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,457 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The current cost to build in Dublin is 460k approx for a 3 bed. The council would need to paying half a million a house to afford to buy them.

    The councils need to get on with building their own homes and leave the private market alone.

    Hopefully the new self build league tables will kick start some proper construction efforts from the councils.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,939 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    They need the workforce for that of course, a publicly owned property developer is what's needed I think



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,300 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Like the OPW? If such a organisation was recreated or they expand the OPW the costs would actually be higher. Civil servants have a lot of great work and pay conditions which have ongoing costs.

    It is one of these accounting dependencies where an upfront cost comes out of one budget while but ongoing cost come from another. What we really need is a new accounting mechanism along the lines of inventing zero. AI is actually likely sort this out in the next 5 years. Accounting has lasted a long time but it is quite simplistic and designed for human understanding and putting data in silos.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,457 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    CIF is saying that the workforce to deliver 50k homes is already there.

    Whether the councils contract out the building or not is fine either way, but I do think they need to become responsible for self build homes with targets.

    Most of their current delivery is just part 5 or homes they have rented/purchased from the private market, using tax payers money.

    They need to do the leg work themselves to deliver and build social homes and let the private sector deliver private homes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,398 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    There's no way in the world the workforce to deliver that amount of homes is there.

    Department of Education are cutting funding to apprenticeship this year and from what I have seen a lot of young apprentices/newly qualified are opting to go abroad.

    I agree with the sentiment that the state need to do their own logistics and building however as with almost everything else - all of this has been privatised to the detriment of the citizen.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,939 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Not like the OPW, the OPW doesn't understand the value of money, they can't be put in charge of housebuilding during an emergency

    Civil servants have a lot of great work and pay conditions which have ongoing costs.

    There's nothing to stop a state owned company offering similar pay and conditions as private developers but instead of profiting from the sale, as a private developer needs to do, they simply rent the homes out or sell them as affordable housing

    50k homes per year I assume you mean? It's a good start but we need closer to a workforce for 100k homes pa I'd say. I completely agree they need to be more proactive. I think the time for relying on private developers to build social homes is long since gone. With that being said, I don't think there is one single approach that will sort the mess out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,300 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Yes there is something stopping civil servants getting the same deals as private employees. Costs, it costs more than a private employee and stays on the books for the life time of the employee.

    Why do you think a new OPW will magically different from the existing one? The same unions will be there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,457 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yes, 50k new homes per year in total.

    A push to have the council made resonsible for new builds, not acquistions, of social homes is really needed.

    As far as the private market goes, I dont see how extending the RPZ nationwide and still capping rent increases at 2% or 3% is going to stimulate new investment.

    The point of the review was to encourage investment and lift new build numbers as a result.

    The "changes" havent really made the rental market any more attractive to private investment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,939 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    A push to have the council made resonsible for new builds, not acquistions, of social homes is really needed.

    Indeed, and there are some councils, notably Limerick, who are actively taking over derelict homes which is a great idea and shouldn't be stopped, but on its own it doesn't add enough homes

    I dont see how extending the RPZ nationwide and still capping rent increases at 2% or 3% is going to stimulate new investment.

    It was previously 2%, it's now the rate of inflation for any new tenancies, it will help a small bit but more importantly it will protect tenants. Somebody who was planning to become a landlord can charge whatever they like and raise rents up to the rate of inflation every year. It's a solid enough deal that might encourage some landlords back to the market

    Post edited by Red Silurian on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,457 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I believe the rent rise in line with inflation is capped at 2%. If inflation is 3%, the landlord can still only raise the rent by 2%.

    Which means that following the changes, the 2% rent cap is still in place.

    This won't encourage new investment as nothing has changed, from an investors point of view.

    Before the new legislation was introduced, somebody planning on becoming a landlord could already charge what they like when they bring the property to market and could already raise rents by 2% annually.

    Again, no change.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 399 ✭✭ingo1984


    As per the last census, there is the same number employed in construction as there was in 2004 when we were building 70k homes a year. It's not the workers that's lacking, it's the political will to solve the problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2075955/panic-tenerife-lanzarote-tourists-fear-safety

    "A clampdown on illegal holiday lets is the latest in a series of moves that has left international tourists unsure if they're "welcome" in Spain. Holidaymakers have been caught offguard by the mass removal of illegal holiday lets in regions across the country, with Booking.com pulling over 4,000 illegal rental listings from its Spanish market this month, with the majority in the Canary Islands."

    https://archive.ph/B4acD

    Any chance illegal airbnbs in this country might get the same treatment?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,939 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    To be fair the rules and implementation dates have changed a few times so trying to keep up is hard. You are correct that from the 20th of June tennancies will be capped at 2% per year or inflation whichever is lower. I had obviously misheard that it was linked to inflation only. Interestingly you could see a situation here that if a recession hits and deflation (or negative inflation) happens that rents will legally have to decrease under the "whichever is lower" rule

    From March 2026 the 2% cap will not apply to rent increases in newly-built apartments and landlords will be able to reset the rent to "market value" after 6 years. I can see this changing in March 2031 though if the rental market hasn't settled. New apartments at least should see an uptick under these new rules



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,457 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The March 2026 change is only a proposal. It still needs legislation to exempt new builds from the 2% rent cap.

    There will be a lot of push back against that change and it may well not happen.

    Either way, it is not legislated for as things stand today and is only a proposal, which means the 2% rent cap of old still applies to everyone and will likely not encourage new investment, going forward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,939 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Correct but I'd be very surprised if the March 2026 changes don't go ahead. It probably needs very complex legislation but the fact that any changes at all are proposed should help more landlords to come on stream between now and then



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,457 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I dont think landlords, especially large scale investors, will come onboard until the legislation is passed ( if it ever is).

    No need to take the risk when there are plenty of other markets they can invest in without fear of rental caps.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,966 ✭✭✭Villa05


    An alternative to €1,000,000 social housing units

    Cost rental @ 686p/m in Vienna

    I wonder can we learn anything from how they do it

    Breakdown of how it's achieved in link



  • Site Banned Posts: 28 kurt_angle


    I understand social homes are needed but a male friend of mine whos is now in his mid 30’s declared himself homeless around five/six years ago during Covid after splitting from his missus. He was renting with the missus. We all offered him a couch in our house shares and someone offered him a spare room but he refused and went the homeless route.

    Anyway, they found him somewhere to stay, but now he got a new social apartment last week in a new social housing apartment complex. He works in a factory earning close to minimum wage, probably pay under a hundred a week.

    Im a bit jealous to be honest. I’m working hard paying 1200 in rent and trying to get on the property ladder with a decent job in IT.

    I would gladly swap my life with his right now knowing I have a roof over my head till the day I die and wouldn’t have to pay off a big mortgage for rest of my life if I eventually get one.

    For a single person he is sorted for rest of his life. I guess he played the system and can’t help but feeling jealous.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 303 ✭✭Hontou


    @kurt_angle I paid nearly €300,000 for an apartment some years ago only to find that the other residents in my building had all been put there by homeless charities who bought the rest of the units in the block. They make good, quiet neighbours. All single older men. However, it took me a lifetime to get the money together to buy that apartment. I go out to work each day now to pay my way and the mortgage. One of them gets his apartment cleaned by another charity group. I am all for charity and equality but somehow feeling confused and like you, a little bit jealous.



  • Site Banned Posts: 28 kurt_angle


    Happy for him but can’t help feeling jealous. It makes me want to pack in my Job.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,694 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    you should be more annoyed that you were made pay 300k for it rather than mad at neighbours for getting affordable housing.

    Its an abject failure of our housing system that there is almost no cost rental or affordable housing, either you stump up 300k plus for an overpriced apartment or you "game the system" to get housed by a charity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I can't understand what you're advocating for here and how it would relieve the poster? They can afford the property they purchased and therefore don't need affordable housing. The core issue if I'm understanding it is the morality/emotional tension of one person paying for something that others get for free, i.e., the same units in the same location. How does more affordable housing change that? You seem to suggest that if the units are cheaper then OP wouldn't have the same issue but this doesn't stand to reason for me.

    OP also pays for your hypothetical increased affordable housing via tax anyway, which further doesn't help to resolve any sense of unfairness and perhaps would make it worse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,694 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I live in a street with a larger proportion of LA housing, and like the poster I paid full whack for my house while others pay the very low means tested rents.

    I still have a higher standard of living than neighbours on council housing, even after I pay my taxes, mortgage, insurance, repairs etc etc.

    So what if they are getting the structure for cheaper than I? The insides of mine vs theirs are night and day, council housing is very basic finishes. And I would much rather my taxes keep people from homelessness because the alternative is much higher homelessness and the crime and antisocial behaviour that brings.

    Thats the price we pay for a functioning, (relatively) low crime society.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 303 ✭✭Hontou


    @floorpie You are right about this:

    "The core issue if I'm understanding it is the morality/emotional tension of one person paying for something that others get for free, i.e., the same units in the same location."

    @timmyntc You are right about this:

    "And I would much rather my taxes keep people from homelessness because the alternative is much higher homelessness and the crime and antisocial behaviour that brings.

    Thats the price we pay for a functioning, (relatively) low crime society."

     



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,966 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I wonder if the "charity" paid more for the apartments than you. Could you check it from the property price register and report back please? There usually bulk purchases appearing together for the same price/date



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,966 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Some more detail from Anton Savage show last Sunday regarding the €1,000,000 social homes

    Land owned/controlled by council

    8million spent on 500 homes to date on procurement, planning, design

    1 million per unit covers build, maintenance 25 years, return to council in pristine condition after 25 years.

    Not sure why social housing/cost rental needs to a white glove service provided by developers that charge 15% risk, 20% margins and double digit cost of finance all covered by the taxpayer.

    Most social housing applicants are working, a lower cost unfurnished unit would be far more appropriate with less maintenance and allow the state to do more with less. Doing more with less cools house and rent prices for taxpayers improves competitiveness

    Additionally if one were to visit there local recycling centre and check out the white goods being dumped there in perfect working order. Can we not have a refurb facility at these locations and redistribute them to those most in need

    Post edited by Villa05 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,966 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Some frustration and strong language on this article

    20250706_120106.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 303 ✭✭Hontou


    @Villa05 A one bed unit was bought for 240k just after I bought my 3 bed for nearly 300k in 2021. That was a very high price for that unit. Other than that the prices before and after my purchase seem to have been in line with market prices. There is no evidence of any bulk buying on the PPR. It is a private development built in 1997. As second hand units come up for sale individually, they most often are bought by the council or by charities. I was told at the last AGM that the council owned about a third of the apartments. Charities seem to own or lease many too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    Prices rising at 7% p.a. I really hope people are getting 5-10% salary increases each year for the last few years since 2021. Otherwise, these increases in the property market are going to strangle economic productivity in the country since it sucks so much good cash out of the economy and into it, where it goes to die essentially and sit on paper valuations of house prices.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,300 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    There are lots of things that give before wages rise and house drop. They are planning to change apartment sizes down. Houses can be split in 2 if big enough. People can choose to commute further especially now with WFH.



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