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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,210 ✭✭✭yagan


    I think the term hyper-normalisation coined by adam curtis describes best a society struggling with privations while not being able to talk about the war it conducts but can't afford.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    They can sabre rattle all they want. Once exposed as just that they will soon be kissing up to Azerbaijan as they realise they can't wield influence over them as they might have liked -



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,125 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    European countries would need to fund Ukraine to the tune of 0.6% of their GDP to enable it to stop Russia, which I interpret as win.

    Ireland has given Ukraine about a tenth of that amount - 0.061%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭zv2


    The second army in Ukraine…

    image.png

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,331 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    The suggestion made at the time was that the Crimean defences were almost entirely dependent on two secure supply routes - the Kerch bridge and the long overland coastal route. Well, there was also the option of bringing in supplies by sea, but seeing as Ukraine has chased the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol, shipping solutions would be … vulnerable.

    Again, the suggested strategy I read was to start with an old-fashioned siege, crippling local infrastructure and economy, and progressively degrading the military presence on the peninsula. In the time since I read that article, Ukraine has demonstrated that it's perfectly capable of using drones to disrupt supply routes and repeatedly target key military infrastructure.

    As it is, we're seeing a pattern of air defence systems in Crimea being destroyed just before Ukraine decides to fly a fleet of drones and missiles into southern Russia, i.e. they can do it as and when they want. So having run the Black Sea Fleet out of the region, Ukraine would seem to be not far off having control of the sky over Crimea too. With a decoy "thunder run" across the Dnieper to draw troops towards the north of the peninsula, an amphibious assault backed up by massive drone support might not be the same kind of slugfest as in previous conflicts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,331 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    brickster699:00 am

    Probably to do with the fact the Russian's gained 100% full control of the Lugansk region yesterday.

    Also the loss of Datshne which is the 1st village in Dnipropetrovsk region to be captured since the start of the conflict happened yesterday.

    Quite significant events in the overall context of this conflict

    @brickster69 says it's "significant" that Russia says it's gained 100% full control of Luhansk (Lugansk if you tend to side with the Russians, obviously).

    Should we be concerned that Ukraine is bombing targets more than 1200km east of Luhansk?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,692 ✭✭✭Infini


    Even if they did take all of Luhansk, this is after 3 and a half years of fighting and very little else to show for it and the Vatnik Turds economy is at serious risk of a catastrophic collapse. What gets forgotten is that Ukraine has adopted a strategy of corrosion, instead of trying to overpower them they'll outlast them and Russia has burned through nearly all of its reserves bar meat at this point. The economy is the key factor, if the Russian economy finally implodes once its financial reserves run out this WILL begin a chain reaction of failure that will either force Putin out of this war or his forces strait up disintegrate once the rubble drops that they aint getting paid anymore and they all quit or turn their guns on HIM. Ukraine just needs to keep doing what they're doing, hit their military centers, critical supply depots and manufacturing and every asset in range. Sooner or later something in Vatnik Russia will give out and it will all come collapsing down on Putrid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,125 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Putin signed a decree allowing investors from other countries — including so-called "unfriendly" ones — to invest in Russian financial assets without the obligation to place them in special blocked Type C accounts.

    Foreigners who will invest in Russian securities for the first time can now use IN accounts. This will allow them to freely withdraw profits outside of Russia. At the same time, restrictions on already frozen funds remain in force.

    After the start of the full-scale war, Russia imposed capital controls and blocked tens of billions of dollars in foreign assets. The new decree is designed to stimulate currency inflows amid financial pressure and sanctions.

    The new rules do not change the situation for those investors who already have assets in Russia — their funds remain frozen in type C accounts.

    Recall:

    Russia's economy is facing more serious problems than is officially recognized, and there is a real risk of a systemic banking crisis over the next year.

    The Russian authorities are interested in gradually depreciating the ruble to the level of 100 per dollar, which can help increase budget revenues.

    How stupid would you have to be? Yes we seized your investment last time, but we promise not to do it again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,624 ✭✭✭zv2


    ….

    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    The halt of US weapons to a Ukraine seems to have been confirmed by multiple sources now. Ffs.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Europe just has to double down and keep the life-lines to Ukraine flowing. America has clearly recinded its leadership of the Free World (not to mention membership of it lately), it is time for Europe to take up that mantel.

    I feel that it is within the gifts of European NATO to keep Ukraine in the fight long enough for the Russian's ability to fight to finally disintergrate. Some posters mention a hope that the Russian soldiers will eventually turn their guns back towards their own leadership or some kind of revolt happens (like when the Wagners tried this), but we can't count on that. What will take the Russians out of the fight will be their own block-headed inability to maintain everything they inherited from the Soviet Union.

    • Each tank destroyed is gone….there is no Armata rolling off the factory floor to replace it.
    • Each Soviet aircraft destroyed is gone….they have lost nearly everything they need to make new aircraft.
    • Each Soviet-era factory destroyed is gone…the knowledge they needed to make these has long since passed away or left Russia.
    • Each Oil / Gas plant destroyed is gone….they are blocked off from the parts and knowhow to fix these.

    This is only going to get worse. Although this won't happen overnight, the Russian rail network is also a Soviet legacy and it is being run ragged. They'll be able to cannibalise equipment for decades to come, but their available staff are getting thined out by the war and those who remain on staff are likely being run into the floor with the stress of keeping everything moving on a system that probably hasn't been overhauled since the 1970s.

    This is but one example of several thoughout modern Russia, where the veneer for functionality might still be there, but the bones of what is keeping it going are brittle and diseased. One bad fall, and it's not coming back up again. Ukraine is being smashed to bits and put under unending stress, but their bones of their nation are healthy, and their heart are in this fight. We just need to keep them fed, armed and to remind them that despite what Donnie's Temu-Dictatorship get up to, the rest of Europe are not going to leave them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Would agree to an extent. For Ukraine (and Europe), it does depend quite a lot on how bad things get with the US cozying up to Russia.

    Unfortunately the US welching on Ukraine + betraying them could also encourage Russia's "allies" to go further in helping with the war effort (China, NK).

    On first point I fear using various work arounds to terminate the last of the Biden era military aid early ("national security" + claims the US or Israel require the weapons) may be just the start of it.

    Ukraine has been looking to buy (not receive as aid) US weapons and Trump has been sitting on that for months + mocking them about this at times.

    Then there's prospect of US ending all its sanctions on Russia.

    In the longer term God knows where the US foreign policy + relations with Putin's Russia will be in 4 years given it seems the President and the admin. have free reign to twist this towards whatever ends they like.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,452 ✭✭✭✭Dont be at yourself


    The silver lining is that if US military aid disappears, so too do the accompanying restrictions and red lines, eg on targeting Russian energy infrastructure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,233 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Trump is a piece of ****.

    Those weapons were promised to Ukraine under Biden, Ukraine were relying on them Trump has broke that promise.

    So instead of achieving peace he promised he now prolongs the war for Ukraine.


    Ukrainians will die because of this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I don't know if all the kowtowing and stroking of Trump's giant ego by European politicians (incl. our own!) and the NATO Secretary General achieves much in the end.

    I suppose it can be argued that things would be deteriorating in US-European/Ukraine relations even faster (e.g. there would have been some destructive public blow up at that recent NATO summit) if they didn't fawn all over him and prostrate themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,107 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    Couldn't be clearer that Trump is on Putins side by not even allowing Ukraine to buy arms, surely losing money for the US arms industry. Not like they need them themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,712 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Agent Trump is going well,, surely the script is being written for a film about the "Greatest super spy" of all times,of course anyone involved won't ever be allowed in America again, can't be having free speech etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Rawr


    The biggest problem would be if the US itself became belligerent towards Europe. A US / Russia alliance against Europe is not something we can handle. I'm hoping it never comes to that, but I would prefer we get to a point where the Russians are defeated sooner rather than later so that European security can focus on becoming independant of the Americans should they go all-in on the old dicatorship nonsense.

    Thankfully each US weapon offering has some European equivilent, and in some cases the Ukrainians have been building their own. It would be better with the US arms too, but Ukraine can still fight without them.

    The US lifting sanctions on the Russia will help them…a bit. The Russians would have access to some parts again, but it won't resolve the underlying problem that Europe has mostly stopped buying energy from them. Without that, the Russians still won't have enough hard cash to keep going, even with whatever trade the Americas might bring to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,590 ✭✭✭Field east


    I agree. Behaving any other way would have lost him completely



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Surprise too this long, anyways this article goes into great detail outlining how Ukraine can win this war and the ones that can help most are European countries with several good points made and details of solutions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,590 ✭✭✭Field east


    From my experience of psychopaths, they will go after one small but even significant thing and achieve their objective but having completely ignored the BIG picture where they would have gained much more. Or/and achieve a success for THEMSELVES on some small thing , say, within a company, and lose sight/ completely ignore the much bigger picture of company survival which might be bankrupt because of their small success.

    Trump does not like VZ so will not sell him arms and , in doing so there is double satisfaction in that he is helping his friend Putin . But the bigger picture is that the US arms industry is losing out on sales AND It ‘ENCOURAGES’ other arms producers to up production, innovate, etc.

    IMO , the above is as clear as the noses on our faces



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,424 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes, they're probably linked (how far the admin. will travel down the road of belligerence and hostility to the EU and towards any countries not currently led by what they see as political kin, and how far they will go with this horrible new friendship towards Putin and Russia).

    They have taken a number of stances (the trade wars and almost daily US threats towards economies of countries supporting Ukraine, statements about Greenland and Canadian sovereignty, statements about how European countries no longer share the US's core "values") that are not exactly going to help any of us in Europe with supporting Ukraine and deterring Russia alone in future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    The US arms manufacturers are already suffering their growth has been anemic as not many trust to purchase from them

    Boeing +14% in 5 years

    Lockheed +20% in 5 years

    Rheinmetal +2200% in 5 years

    Same for the US energy industry many of whom are loudly grumbling that they were better off under Democrats, the same industry which can boom again if only Trump ever decides to sanction his Daddy in Kremlin, but he won’t

    It’s Kremlin First, Americans Last



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,125 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Lots of Ukrainians have already died because of Krasnov. There is a lot more Europe could do if the leaders weren't a bunch of stupid cowards. All of them would fold and cave in a week if they were to suddenly face what Zelensky did. Merz didn't give Ukraine Taurus after he said he would, instead he's giving them assistance to build their own, but that takes time and more dead Ukrainians. Europe could send their planes to earn their keep. Orcistan is using N Korean troops and equipment and is scrounging fighters and workers from Africa, China and elsewhere. They would bitch about it and threaten, but it's going to ring hollow in the world's ears.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,125 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Wonderful opportunity for the EU to draw Putrid a red line and say 'if you do this, we will deploy EU aircraft and troops to help defend Ukraine. But EU leaders are both stupid and cowards. Not standing up the Orc aggression in the past lead to the invasion of Ukraine - I have no confidence they will ever learn. While Boris Johnson has a great many faults and is/was hard to take in several ways, he's about the only ex/leader in Europe who got it and had the steel to do something aggressive enough about it.

    I'd ask SK if they want to send some troops to Ukraine to get some skills and experience that they are going to sorely need very soon, the way things are headed with dear fatso. They are decades out of practice and would be extremely foolish to not take this opportunity the way NK is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,233 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    The Trump administration are too dumb to see what’s becoming down the line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 680 ✭✭✭Bitcoin


    When putrid's regime tumbles and his body is hanging from a lamp post, people are going to be astounded at the speed of the collapse. This war is costing them a small fortune each month with no end in sight. At some point the wealth reserve runs dry, inflation kicks in and the economy crumbles. At that point the ruzzians will lose the will to fight on and all occupied territory will go back to Ukraine without a fight, mark my words.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Its surprising how often I get to use this picture

    1000064959.jpg

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Baba Yaga


    i think there was no other way to deal with donnie,either stroke his c…whoops erm…ego or have him hop on his plane and feck off while at the same time blowing up his twit machine saying how trully awful,horrible people they are in europe…maybe we in europe should give him a plane too?

    yo! donnie vonredactedpants,vlad putin,benji netanyahu,vic orban..you sirs are the skidmarks on the jocks of humanity!!!



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