Israel Launches strike against Irans Nuclear Programme

I always presumed that the US and probably the UK too kept up communication with the Iranian opposition should an opportunity arrise to depose the ruling mullahs.

This is such an opportunity. Overthrow the Iranian regime, open the country to democratic elections( I know, I know) and bring in a more liberal, west leaning government.

What it means for the broader Middle East is up for debate, but means Israel is now the dominant power. Without Iran backing them, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are extremely isolated and effectively finished as a force. No one else will be coming to there aid.

It also means that Israel can't use their go to mantra of being in imminent danger any longer and their oppression of Palestinians and West Bank will come under stronger scrutiny and sanction. Perhaps leading to a change of government and outlook within Israel itself. And then a better outcome for Palestine and the West Bank.

Or perhaps Iran have a nuclear dirty bomb that's been sitting in Tel Aviv for the last 6 months waiting for a phonecall and we're all going to hell in a hand basket.

Interesting time ahead.

TBH I'm not familiar with it all. I think Israel just want to set their nuke plan back years and cut the head off the snake and then leave and let someone else deal with the immediate fallout.

It may end up like Iraq and the birth of ISIS all over again. There will be peace for a while, but then it will all kick off again. It's just kicking the can down the road.

Well, it will have still weakened Iran with a tactical victory with very little cost to itself.

The worst case for them is that the regime holds on and rebuilds over the next few years, at the very least, they have put back their nuclear program for years.

Israel seems to be in it for the long haul. If the US won't get involved, there is chatter that the IDF may have to send in special ops to some of these nuclear sites and destroy them from the ground. Very high risk, but if they have complete air superiority, then perhaps it's worth the risk to them?

If they cannot destroy all the nuclear sites from the air, then it will do as much damage as it can from the air to the military and political establishment over the next few weeks.

I still think that Trump will give the go ahead though, I am not sure he will be like the latest round of fighting words from Iran.

Bibi wont be deposed he will leave office after this conflict is over. I'm not sure the israeli public care when their army kills civilians in other countries or in Gaza. It seems his unpopularity is more to do with corruption.

The enrichment sites are deep under ground.

They can't hit them from the air.

Apparently, they can with a GBU-57 but it would need multiple strikes. B2 bombers can carry 2 of them at a time.

I did hear some analysts say they may need some boots on the ground ala special ops to verify the job is done and mine/destroy what's left.

The US will do it if it wants to do it. The rest of the Gulf states would back blowing up Iran's nuclear facilities in secret. MBS himself has openly stated he does not want to see Iran with a nuclear weapon.

No one is talking about a full scale occupation of the country. This operation would be limited to a few strikes at a few facilities. If Iran retaliates, it will be an escalation until Iran has no capacity to retaliate anymore.

2 is probably out of the question. Atomic bombs require very specific things to make them go off. If anything the kinetic action of an outer explosion would make it less likely to detonate, not more.

In scenario 1, contamination is risk, alright. I don't know if the U.S would feel compelled to help with that unless it affects allies in the region.

Scenario 3 - the number of boots on the ground appear to already be substantial. This is in terms of Israeli special ops units, anyway.

"Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and some 1,000 drones at Israel since the start of the conflict on Friday, according to fresh data from the IDF.

Of the ballistic missiles, just over 20 impacted urban areas in Israel, causing casualties and extensive damage. 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 wounded. The casualty figures are far below what the IDF anticipated when it planned the operation against Iran, according to military officials. Of the 1,000 drones, fewer than 200 reached Israel's borders and entered Israeli airspace. However, not one of the drones impacted Israel. All were either intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Navy, or fell short before reaching Israel."

An amazing interception rate considering what has been filmed, probably just a one off.

What's the video supposed to show? I only count 1 missile impacting. You won't see most interceptions as they are up in the atmosphere and above.

You're seeing (I'm open to correction) iron dome trying to pick off ballistic missiles that have slipped through the other layers of defence (David's sling, Arrow, Patriot, Thaad etc...)

They made no such claim in that statement. They only mention about 20 impacting civilian areas. They have not released (for bloody obvious reasons) how many impacted military targets.

The video proves absolutely nothing.

That would be good yes ….. there should be no king-like figures in Iran …. i.e. supreme leader …. but the factions need to be brought together ….. some moderate from the IRI side like Masoud Pezeshkian or Hassan Rouhani would have to do business with someone from the opposition side like Reza Pahlavi ….. you'd have to form something stable like this …. it has to be remembered there is still support for IRI albeit a more moderate form ….. and you cannot ignore this sector of Iranian society ….. likewise there is support for the Pahlavis and you cannot ignore that sector either ……

Netanyahu needs to be gone without question ….. even if you had the Iran issue solved in his favour Netanyahu would no doubt find a new enemy …. e.g. Turkey ….. and blame them for this and that like they now do Iran and once did Iraq ….. plus as long as Netanyahu and his kind is there the Palestine conflict will go on and on …. it needs settlement …..

The cult of Trump needs to go ….. speaking of king-like figures ….. Trump has not done one positive thing since he got elected ….. and a lot of his more moderate MAGA supporters are beginning to recognise that …… I predict that if Trump gets involved in this war that is the end of him ….. it is one thing most Americans do not want ….. and why many voted for Trump even though anyone who studied him deeper know his anti-Iran views from the last term and his initiation of an Iran war in January 2020 stopped by COVID 19 ….. hawkish Republicans want this war ….. more moderate MAGA politicians don't ….. Trump has a choice and if he goes with the former ….. that's it for him ….. he will confirm to the people he is yet another hardline Republican warmonger more concerned with doing the dirty work for a corrupt Israeli despot than making America great again …….