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Israel Launches strike against Irans Nuclear Programme

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Comments

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,557 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    For starters Iran will not directly attack the USA because they know they would be bombed to the stone age but more importantly their leaders would die. They may do some more covert stuff using huthi rebels which gives deniability (to both sides) or other Islamic terrorist organizations but they simply don't have the means to do anything meaningful. While the leaders of Iran may be of questionable sanity and intelligence (anyone who thinks a god speaks to them tend to be) they are not that suicidal; they could order strikes and call down the nuclear winter but note the lack of actual effect. Same way Putin has threatened the west with nuclear attacks and keep drawing new lines in the sand when they may come if west lets Ukraine have weapons, longer range weapons etc. (yet as always fail to materialize but talk is cheap and sounds great for propaganda purposes).

    Secondly; Russia invading Europe is honestly the best joke on this thread. Putin can't even take on Ukraine currently and you think he's going to find the soldiers and equipment to open a new front with Europe somehow? We're talking about a country that are currently on track to run out of tanks (including the 50 year old once pulled from storage) in less than two years; artillery is going back to WW2 stuff currently and relying on NK to provide the ammunition. Even the most generous estimations for tank production from Russia is not hitting close to even 25% replacement rate in Ukraine and that's fighting a hog podge army surplus units as the western stuff trickles in. The reason Putin fights so hard in Ukraine is because this is the last chance Russia has to fight a major war because the current production rate is about 80 tanks a year for their current MBT compared to 1400 lost in Ukraine in 2024. Even if Russia got an uninterrupted decade starting tomorrow they could still not replace and equip their army properly and this is before we talk about the issue of soldiers and losses (hint, losing men in their prime to have families wrecks havoc to the future generations in Russia and they were not exactly stellar future there before the war) or the state of the Russian economy in general. Of course we should mention China and it's plans for taking back land in Siberia it used to hold (hint, it has already started and Russia is pretending it's not going on because they can't afford to open that war either).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭thereiver


    Israel have been preparing these attacks for years. They know where all the military buildings are. They know where they military leaders live Mossad have contacts in every Arab city and country The surprising thing is theu were able to get trucks or places to hide drones. In Iran and attack all the air defense systems It's a one sided war they can send planes anywhere. They will probably bomb and destroy most of the military buildings that are not buried deep underground. They could destroy they whole of Tehran I'f they wish I think they ,ll hold back abit because as trump says there are peace talks going on and they don't want to risk too many civilian deaths in Israel Tech has improved they can place drones inside iran and guide them remotely

    Theres literally no safe building in Iran they have planes that can go anywhere They probably had the whole attack planned. On computer simulations eg there's 100 targets which ones will we attack first probably nuclear facilitys are the prime targets. Will they go after politicans after they get the top military command staff

    Its like a real life video game with drones and bombs of course as sky news said a few per cent of missiles will get thru the iron dome . The problem is Iran is a corrupt country people are appointed based mostly on loyalty to the regime it's air defense systems are not developed to resist against a modern war Machine like Israel has



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,180 ✭✭✭0ph0rce0


    Every news outlet and article is Israel this, Israel that. 3 deaths , nothing of the 70 Iranians. Did they not start this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I think Iran needs a miracle to survive the week.

    The end of the mullahs would not be a bad thing at all. But the power vacuum left could end up like another Iraq

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,557 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    They will survive a lot longer than that; remember the Bosnian war? You can't win a war with air superiority alone and that's assuming you actually have a plan for what's suppose to happen next if you win on the ground (see Iraq war for a recent example).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    The regime is deeply unpopular. I can see people rising up and taking control. I do agree with you however that could cannot win a war by air power alone and Israel would not have the resources to launch such an operation. But this could be the push that is needed to remove the racial Islamists.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Russia will be slow to launch a conventional attack, for sure. As of now, they're conducting "grey zone" operations, sabotage, espionage operations, "wet work" and so on. Their 'invasion' would be only a minor escalation of that, as per Crimea, "little green men" would appear in one of the Baltic States (most likely, especially where there are Soviet era Russian communities), and enough aggression would be shown to that Baltic country to trigger an Article 5 response from NATO. At this point, all of the individual NATO members would have two bad choices:

    1. Attack Russia directly and risk a much larger war, including possible nuclear war.
    2. Abandon their ally and show NATO to be a paper tiger.

    For all his faults, Joe Biden delivered a clear pre-emptive warning in this regard, saying that "we will defend every inch of NATO territory."

    That "every inch" sent a clear message - it doesn't matter if Russia "only" seized one small border village for example, as a "test." Armed aggression would be responded to, full stop.

    As for Donald Drumpf and his merry band of appeasers and Russian stooges, I don't know if their response would be the same.

    But, closer to the topic, I imagine Putin is s***ing bricks now that one of his CRINK partners in genocide and terrorism is getting the 7 shades of snot kicked out of it by Israel.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
    Join NAFO today:

    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,936 ✭✭✭Homelander


    It depends on the objectives of the war.

    Israel's objective isn't to invade or occupy Iran for obvious reasons, so they will certainly at least partially achieve their war aims, and it's not impossible they would achieve the more difficult ones (stall Iran's nuclear development, apply enough pressure to topple the regime)

    As it is, Iran is virtually defenseless already and it's only day 3.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,557 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Yes, the famous Arabic spring of revolutions aspirations all over again; how well has that worked out again? The problem is not that they are unpopular; the problem is there needs to be an actual replacement and as seen over and over again democracy don't suddenly bloom in people's heart and materialize. Even if Israel were to somehow cause a power vacuum at best we can hope for is that some unifying rebel group would rise up (but as they are the "wrong" faith for Saudi Arabia etc. it's hard to get the fighters and funding for that) and unite the country. More likely it ends up a haven for various wannabe terrorists / warlords fighting a turf war driving the civilian population further into poverty and religious limitations (as rebels always tend to be more extreme than the current government as justification to fight).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    It would probably end up like Iraq. There is still a large group who wants to restore the monarchy and Shah. Which is utterly ridiculous.

    Interesting that they're supposed ally Russia. Appears to be doing fcuk all to help them out.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,557 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I don't really blame them; plenty of Americans who want to turn America back to the good old days when the people of color (using the American version) knew their place as second class citizens in this day and age. Rose tinted glasses exist everywhere because it's far easier to be nostalgic than have to deal with actual reality of issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,086 ✭✭✭dmcdona



    now that one of his CRINK partners in genocide and terrorism

    At first, I thought you were referring to Israel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    You may well be right - I've not had the occasion to visit Israel so can't follow up on that. But the fact that Israelis have to live near bomb shelters because they're constantly being terrorised by Iranian government proxies - that government in turn having the rallying cry "Death to Israel" means there isn't really a peaceful solution to their quarrel.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
    Join NAFO today:

    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Was Israel supplying drones and missiles to Russia to be used against Ukraine? If so, that is certainly news to me.

    The CRINKs on the other hand have very much been working together.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
    Join NAFO today:

    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,111 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    What happens if Israel fails to topple the Iranian government this week or in coming weeks? What is their 'out' strategy to end the war?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,086 ✭✭✭dmcdona


    As I said, since you were posting about genocidal nations and terrorists, I thought you were referring to Israel - you know, with two senior Israelis "at large" from The Hague for War Crimes and the case of Genocide before the ICJ.

    Apologies for the mistake.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,557 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Trump tactics; declare victory ("complete destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure" no matter the reality as no one would believe Iran anyway) along with agreeing to a ceasefire that Trump can claim as a victory (and Israel gets another donation of weapons/funding etc. to "protect Israel from future aggression").



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    No, I was clearly referring to Russia and its CRINK allies - you know, the ones who are waging the largest ground war in Europe since WWII. There are other threads for the Israel Palestine issue.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
    Join NAFO today:

    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Doesn't count unless you stand on the deck of an aircraft carrier with a big 'Mission Accomplished ' banner

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,117 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Worst case they can keep the war going indefinitely. They could focus on constantly taking out Iranian politicians, military leaders and scientists. Very hard for Iran to function if their leaders are routinely executed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,936 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Nothing. It's not a "the regime must fall or we lose" scenario.

    Israel will present it as a victory anyway because they've clearly won the conventional stage by destroying Iran's air defense capability and damaging it's nuclear development infrastructure.

    Iran will be far more anxious to end hostilities than Israel, they're taking a very one-sided beating, and to be honest "one-sided" makes it sound like a fight - it's really not, Israel is striking Iran where they want, when they want, how they want, and Iran can't do anything about it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭kabakuyu


    Iranian missiles appear to be very ineffective, iron Dome seems to deal with them quite easily,100s launched but only a few land.I imagine the Iranians are working hard looking for a way out while trying to save face.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,557 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    But a truck with containers look boring these days :(



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 738 ✭✭✭gral6


    Well done to Israel!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,423 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,835 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    It's possible that both sides are as$holes. And if we're being honest, the downfall of the Islamic Republic would not be a bad thing. Give Iranians are real chance to decide their own future

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,644 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Quite amazing this narrative that Iran needs to be prevented from having nuclear weapons at all costs despite the US intelligence community testifying that Iran are not developing nuclear weapons

    Two months ago they signed and ratified a treaty which affirmed they would not develop nuclear weapons and were willing for another country to enrich nuclear material for civil purposes for them. Three days later the lead negotiator was assassinated as a deal was looking positive based on this.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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