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Israel Launches strike against Irans Nuclear Programme

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,289 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Israel will likely run out of Arrow and Davids Sling missiles before the Iranians run out of Ballistic Missiles. I'd hazard that Israel has less than 1000 interceptors available and even with THAAD deployed by the US and US Navy Aegis and SM3 and SM6 in the region? Probably less than 1300 BMD capable missiles in the region.

    The volume of missiles is part of Iran's strategy. They built thousands of Ballistic missiles in the hope that the arithmetic would fall their way. Both in terms of actual missile numbers and the economic cost underlying missile defence.

    The Arrow 3 interceptor costs $3-4 million per missile. That's without factoring the radar and infrastructure costs.

    Davids Sling costs $700k per shot and while it shares radar system with Arrow, it's a separate launcher and associated infrastructure costs.

    Compare that to Iranian Ballistic missiles, which they have built in volume and costs averaging less than $1million even for their "top of the line" Fatah series. I think that Iran thought in a "normal" geopolitical framework? That their investment in ballistic missiles was enough to deter Israel. Noone saw an attack of the scale of yesterday occuring. Interesting that it happened before Iran stood up their recently purchased new Russian fighters. Israel saw their window for freedom of action was closing, and took it IMO.

    Prior to the Israeli decapitation and air defence degradation strike. I'd reckon that Iranian deterrence was based on launching a volume of Ballistic missiles that would overwhelm the defence and allow some to leak through. Not all of Israel's interceptors are available to launch, maybe only a max of 30% immediately available with the rest as reloads. The decimation of Iran's air defence and Israeli Air superiority over Iran since? Means that Iran can't freely move and launch "mass strikes" without being caught in the open. Similar to scud hunts in Gulf War 1.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,464 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Why refer to Iran as genocidal for selling weapons to Russia but refuse to acknowledge Israel using weapons supplied by the US as genocidal?

    Is Israel genocidal? Is the US genocidal?

    Why does Israel have a right to have nuclear weapons for its security? A right to occupy the land of multiple other countries for its security? Does Russia have the right to occupy its neighbour for its security or only Israel?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 958 ✭✭✭MICKEYG


    You could say that about so many civilizations. It does not esccirs a land grab..

    I am fully supportive of a safe and securet Israel but when the nonsense around "this give us a right" gets sprouted I recoil



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Nuclear weapons - as Russia has demonstrated - can also be used by an aggressor dictatorship to get away with a variety of hostile actions. Consider the Russian invasion of Ukraine, do you think the civilised world would have responded more forcefully if Russia did not have nuclear weapons?

    We know the answer to that question - and so do the Ayatollahs. That's why they're building nuclear weapons.

    https://u24.gov.ua/
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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    It's difficult to continue this without a common frame of reference:

    1. Do you accept that the Iranian government - both in word (e.g. its whole "Death to Israel" schtick) and deed (inter alia, its supply of drones and drone design plans to Russia) - is a genocidal dictatorship?
    2. Do you accept that they are building nuclear weapons?

    These are simple questions. Can you answer them without engaging in whataboutery?

    But to answer your questions in part:

    We know that the intentions of the dictatorship of Iran are to wipe Israel off the map. We also know that Israel's quarrel is solely with the dictatorship of Iran, not the country as a whole or all of its people.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,136 ✭✭✭Lirange


    They did topple the original regime that shielded Al-Qaeda & refused to hand over Bin Laden. They should’ve called it a day when OBL’s death was confirmed & left it at that. It seems the new iteration of Taliban tribal leadership are not keen to invite what remains of his Arabian acolytes back & they are in open conflict with ISIS.

    The invasion of Iraq was a spurious & unjust op from the off. The invasion itself was a rout. They toppled Saddam & the Baath party in Iraq. The occupation much like Afghanistan was doomed to fail in the long run. Direct military conflicts and occupations are very different things. It’s an important distinction.

    If Israel attempts to occupy Iran then yes they will have immense difficulty doing so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,289 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    The average Palestinian has way more right to the land than some New York Jew born in Brooklyn who's the grandchild of people that emigrated to the US from Eastern Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,464 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Do you think k Russia would be occupying Ukrainian territory if Ukraine had nuclear weapons?
    The civilised world has acted more forcefully to the Russian occupation of Ukraine than to the Israeli occupation of Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,455 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    The 'civilised world' is surely taking the piss now.

    Civilised as in stirring sh1t everywhere, backing ethnic cleansing and weapons of mass destruction all over again? That sort of 'civilised' is it?

    Go away out of this nobody is buying this sort of hypocrisy anymore.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,464 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Hold on. You are describing Iran as genocidal for supplying weapons to Russia. That is your claim, that’s what makes them genocidal.
    Can we agree that if that is the criteria for a genocidal state then both the US and Israel are also genocidal states?
    Here are quotes from April’s IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

    “We do not have any information or indications that Iran has a nuclear weapons program”  

    And

    “The Agency has no evidence that Tehran is building a nuclear weapon”  


    Have you some evidence that Iran is building nuclear weapons that the International Atomic Energy Agency is not privy to and if so could you share it here.

    How can you say that Israel’s “quarrel” is solely with the dictatorship of Iran? That’s very Putinesque and the multiple other countries being occupied by Israel not to mention the tens of thousands of women and children bombed and burned to death by Israel across multiple countries may beg to disagree.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,464 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Is that a long way of saying that the successful regime change in Afghanistan that cost $2.3 trillion resulted in the same regime in power?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,136 ✭✭✭Lirange


    It is not the same regime. Regime change doesn’t guarantee a policy, let alone a culture change at the top when said regime is replaced. Israel could annihilate the Guardian Council, Ayatollah, and the entire leadership of the Revolutionary Guard and it could still all eventually be replaced with hardliners. Just like if Iran somehow took out Bibi & every significant Likud Party member that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be replaced by like minded fanatics. However the current version of the Taliban, theocracy & domestic repression aside, is geopolitically quite different than the Taliban pre 11th Sept.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,619 ✭✭✭SeanW


    No, in the first instance my claim is that Iran's government is genocidal both in word and deed. Their stated reason for existence - is "Death to Israel" (and the U.S.)

    Iran chants death to Israel at DuckDuckGo

    Their actions (backing Hamas, Hezbollah, Russia etc) are fully consistent in deeds with their genocidal words.

    As for their nuclear weapons programme, the IAEA has been very clear that not only have the Iranian government been enriching Uranium to levels that have zero civilian uses, but they have been lying about it.

    Watchdog finds Iran failing to meet nuclear obligations

    It says Iran's "many failures" to provide the IAEA with full answers about its undeclared nuclear material and activities constitutes non-compliance. It also expresses concern about Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, which can be used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons.

    It follows a report from the IAEA last week which criticised Iran's "general lack of co-operation" and said it had enough uranium enriched to 60% purity, near weapons grade, to potentially make nine nuclear bombs.

    In case you don't trust the BBC, here's a piece from Al Jazeera a couple of weeks ago:

    The IAEA said that as of May 17, Iran had amassed 408.6kg (900.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent – the only non-nuclear weapon state to do so, according to the UN agency – and had increased its stockpile by almost 50 percent to 133.8kg since its last report in February.

    So government whose entire raison d'être is the annihilation of Israel and its people is making huge stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and lying about it. But hey … nothing to see here?

    https://u24.gov.ua/
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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,907 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    Wasn’t the Taliban always a bit regional? In one of Jason Burke’s books he claimed that it was only really the higher levels that embraced the likes of Bin Laden and in many areas they didn’t know or care about the outside world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,136 ✭✭✭Lirange


    Yes it’s very tribal. Taliban is really a unifying umbrella term for the movement & foundational ideology. It’s not a cohesive concrete political organisation like Hezbollah let alone comparable to the leadership in Iran.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,418 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    It's wild listening to people, who have argued for years that Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, say Iran is genocidal for supplying weapons to Russia. If we could somehow harness this hypocrisy and convert it into electricity, we wouldn't need oil, wind, or solar.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,418 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    image.png

    The size of Iran compared to Israel.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,108 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "We also know that Israel's quarrel is solely with the dictatorship of Iran, not the country as a whole or all of its people."

    We do not know this because it's not true.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 237 ✭✭strathspey


    Well, where do you want to put the marker in history. If you go back to the 12 tribes of Israel, all the Palestinian land, Lebanon, Syria, and a good portion of Iraq were all Jewish lands.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,418 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    You cannot put a marker in history for one race, religion, or group of people. It nonsensically gives extra land to modern people whilst not removing land elsewhere from that group.

    If group A used to live where group B lives, and group B used to live where group A lives, and they both try to claim their ancestral land without giving up their new land, then they both own all of the land. It's impossible. It's like me saying I own my house in Ireland, but I also have a right to land in Italy because I am Catholic. Where is the Italian supposed to go if I don't give him my land in Ireland?

    Americans moving to the West Bank to settle Palestinian land should be giving their land in America to the people they displace in the West Bank.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,548 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    How self obsessed are Israel to think that the government of 90 million people's entire reason to exist is to destroy Israel.

    Sad

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    That Iranian government. A great bunch of lads .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 839 ✭✭✭poop emoji




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,464 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Could you provide evidence that “Iran’s sole reason for existence” and it’ “entire raison d’etre” is the annihilation of Israel?

    One would imagine, if, as you say it is the only reason they exist, it would appear in their constitution or policy documents? No?

    Maybe a photo of Netenyahu at the Un with a cartoon drawing of a bomb has convinced you.

    Why would the “genocidal” Iranian regime bent on “wiping Israel from the map” (a convenient western mistranslation), propose


    • Palestine: A Plan for the Peaceful Elimination of Israel”
      – proposing a referendum by all Palestinians, including refugees and Arab Israelis, which he claimed would peacefully end the “Zionist regime.”


    “There are no half measures … Rafah, Deir al‑Balah, Nuseirat – total annihilation. ‘Thou shalt blot out the remembrance of Amalek from under heaven.’ There is no place for them under heaven.”  

    If rhetoric is genocidal then perhaps you could address the statements of Israeli government ministers?

    “There are no innocent civilians in Gaza”


    “We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel. Everything is closed.”  

    “The Gaza Strip will be wiped off the map”


    If you believe Iran is genocidal for selling weapons to Russia, how does it not follow, by the standards you are applying yourself, you deny that the US and Israel are genocidal?

    Is it because of the skin colour or religion of one group compared to the other or some other reason for your double standards?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,729 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    You're right, Iranian leaders regularly declare "Death to israel/america/england" so its not just them I suppose, they need to get over themselves, ugh 🙄

    Why not ask why is the iranian religious supreme leader so obsessed with going on about eradicating western societies given half the chance ? Meanwhile women are executed on the regular for defending themselves against their abusive husbands, some of them child brides. That's actually sad.

    I'd hardly call them merely the "government" tbh. Why are you out here batting for Iran? Bit weird



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,464 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    So your argument is that because the Taliban is different, geopolitically now, compared to a quarter of a century ago it was still successful regime change?

    Could it perhaps be that something else has changed in the last 25 years? Maybe geopolitics?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,145 ✭✭✭threeball


    Just like their quarrel is only with Hamas. Killing the 100,000 citizens is just collateral damage. Do you really believe this nonsense. If Israel thought it could get away with it, it would nuke everything it perceived as a threat.

    They alone have created their own troubles for the policies they have pursued for decades. Instead of trying to foster relationships, they have instead gone to war with everyone imaginable whilst subjugating over 1 million people in Gaza and the west bank.

    Israel have targeted civilian areas in Iran in these attacks, just like they do in Gaza. To say their quarrel is not with the people and only with the leadership is disingenuous in the extreme. Either that, or very naive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,533 ✭✭✭combat14


    "Iran's Fars news agency reports senior military officials as saying the conflict will spread to US bases in the region over the coming days."

    surely iran wouldnt be so stupid as to drag the US fully into this war?

    on donald trumps birthday and all

    Post edited by combat14 on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,418 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Oh look, another Israel-supporter pretending to care about Muslim women and children while defending the murder of tens of thousands of them and the starvation of hundreds of thousands more.

    I don't believe for a second that you think it's remotely sad. You just think it's sad that it's not you or an Israeli doing it.

    Mod Edit: Warned for being a dick

    Post edited by Necro on

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