Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Russian Baltic Fleet is easy pickings, sitting there in a port in Kaliningrad , Pearl Harbour them into extinction

How do they do any of this?

Full surrender absolutely not, no one could ever think I would support that.

But what are the two options then? Either:

1. Give Ukraine what it needs militarily to actually defeat Russia. This should happen but is not going to happen. We're 3 years in, if it hasn't happened by now it'll never happen

Or

2. Surrender some territory in the east temporarily in exchange for end to the fighting and security guarantees from the West. Build up military in the meantime, keep economic pressure on Russia, and renegotiate in a post-Putin Russia.

Option two is not pretty but imo it's better than tend of thousands of Ukrainians dying every year for a war they are simply not able to win militarily and the country unable to function in any normal way. Because option 1 is just a fantasy at this stage, even the Ukrainians themselves have said as much

Hungary.....get these fcuks out of the EU

No, I'm talking about someone from Moscow saying that even behind closed doors most either support Putin or are utterly indifferent. This is not the same as being afraid or the heroic, brave minority who have stood up for their values and who I've always commended. The majority are not opposed to this war at all

Fair points. But that brings us back to basic economics… at some point you reach a tipping point where you can't pay your workers for what they're making and can't pay your suppliers for what you need. And I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Russian economy isn't tanking once you take out the superficial upsides brought about by going to a wartime economy. It's just a sticking plaster on a ruptured artery.

That would surely be suicide by Putin?? There could only be one outcome there for Russia, even if the immediate response by Europe/ NATO was slow and confused.

On the Russian ramp up of arms production issue, I wonder when you compare the effectiveness of the Ukrainian military leadership and infantry to that of the Russians, what the ratio would need to be for Russia to get effectiveness out of their arms… as in, how many Russian tanks/ artillery systems etc does Russia need to produce to be as effective as one Ukrainian tank/ artillery system?

To paraphrase a Ukrainian, thank god the Russian military machine is so inept.

The expectation that "ordinary Russians" or pre war "ordinary Ukrainians" can have any influence on their respective on their respective governments isn't based in reality.

In my personal experience in that part of the world the distain/indifference/contempt that arms of government/departments, institutions like banks etc have for ordinary citizens isn't something that one would experience in any part of the western world.

The west has it's problems but the rights of ordinary citizens and the collective power to exert influence over our government is not something that your ordinary citizen in that part of the world can even contemplate.

Prior to the election of Zelensky Ukraine wasn't a whole lot better and it's desire to be more western is very much in it's infant stages.

When in the past couple of hundred years has the life of your ordinary Russian be anything but objectively horrendous in terms of personal freedom, opportunity, citizens rights.

As an example The Great Patriotic War (WW2) was seen as a triumph of USSR history; a war in which 27 million citizens died. Many through abject management on the battlefield.

Expecting citizens of a country who've known nothing but misery/brutality/corruption etc to behave in a manner you'd expect from one like Ireland with 100 years of political stability isn't anyway realistic.

70 years of communism alone, with it's attack on the nuclear family, the position of the Church and civic trust are enough to leave any society a mess for generations.

Once again Zelensky speaks the truth with remarkable restraint:

Where are these drones and missiles hitting Kyiv being launched from.. how far are they travelling

Thanks for clarifying.

I fully agree with your first option. Even before the dump fire of Trump got in it seemed pretty clear to me that Ukraine were not getting enough support to win this war fully and drive Russia from there land, and with Trump in now it's looking very unlikely.

IMO the second option seems to be a non- starter, Zelensky and Ukraine seem to have shown clear willingness to negotiate a ceasefire on current lines of combat.

However Russia and Putin clearly do not want this, they have stalled any reasonable negotiations with Ukraine and instead are putting out ultimatums which near enough amounts to a full surrender by Ukraine. Full and complete control of the four Oblasts and demilitarisation of Ukraine's armed forces. Of course with very little security guarantees that would let Russia finish the job at a later stage.

Until Russia shows any real willingness to negotiate then the only two options available to Ukraine that I can see are either to continue fighting or accept Russia's terms for what is near enough a full surrender.