Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Seems to be a major strategic bombing offensive on Crimea by Ukraine in the last two days. Softening it up for a possible ground force push. If they can take out the southern Russian flank then the east will fold quickly.

Scroll back few pages, it all started with friends of Putin doing the usual “whataboutism X in the time Y”

Mirroring Putin and his “it all started in the 9th century” nonsense

It’s important to keep reminding Russians and their sick sick admirers that some of the most barbaric and tragic parts of their history such as Holodomor and Alliance with Hitler was airbrushed out of their history

Just like they are already trying to disappear and whitewash attrocities in this war or making likes of Stalin as some sort of a hero

Realistically, the AFU would need to sever the Russian land-bridge to Crimea and have solid control of the Azov coast before an attempt on Crimea.

Now, it’s pretty unlikely to get to that stage anytime this year, or very soon, but if everything goes right for Ukraine and they are kept in the fight long enough then it’s not impossible. I feel that a prerequisite to trying for Crimea would be retaking most / all of the Donbass and securing their frontier with Russia there.

However, the problem with that approach is that the Russians would then refocus themselves on fortifying Crimea. If by some turn of incredible luck the AFU could push to the Azov coast now, then they would face a poorly fortified Crimean Plateau that would give the AFU the advantage with modern armor and aircover. In that case, with the exception of the major cites, the AFU could likely cut off the Russia supply lines on the east of the peninsula and starve the remaining defenders of ammo.

But the Russians would need an incredible collapse along the front for this to happen. It’s not impossible, but at the moment it’s very unlikely.

I forget which poster often brought this up (Maybe Wibbs?), but their point was to «follow the money» to determine who would come out on top in this conflict, and following the money in this war only ever seemed to bring you to Ukriane.

Win, lose or draw; Russia have screwed themselves over royaly for engaging in Putin’s war of personal relevancy. Russia is a bad investment now. The war economy is built on a ginantic house of cards, where many of the cards might not even exist. Their consumer base is being literally destroyed by a conflict, and the infrastructure they needed to export raw materials & energy (a major pre-war reason to invest in Russia) is being progressively blown to bits.

Any part of land that falls within «Forever Russia» after this confict, is going to find itself hopelessly poor, and hopelessly powerless to improve their lot in the world. All thanks to Uncle Vlad.

Also the underground infrastructure is decaying all over Russia. More so, there's not enough manpower or money to fix it. Even if the war ends today they've got a huge problem with this. Here's a microcosm of the situation.

They Bought Premium Housing Outside Moscow. They Still Can't Escape Russia's Decaying Infrastructure. - The Moscow Times

Quote:

Officials acknowledge that the wear and tear on sewage treatment facilities, many of which were built in the 1960s and 1970s, is a chronic problem for most of Russia’s regions, many of which lack the funds to replace them.

While the number of sewage-related accidents in Russia has fallen in recent years, the total length of pipes needing replacement is on the rise and currently stands at 38,600 kilometers — nearly the length of the Equator.

Nobody knows what to believe in anymore, nothing is real…..

how is putins "cease" fire going so far…?

That Adam Curtis doc is over 8 years old. The Trump shape shifting has moved on to unimaginable levels now. It's amazing how he's fully followed the Putin model and so many people have just followed him blindly

Shur he kept his word for Easter.

A lot of stuff was built at the same time in the Soviet era so it is now disintegrating at the same time everywhere.

Yes, they should, but apparently some units got orders to stop assaults.

Despite the "ceremonial" truce announced by the Putin regime for the Victory Day in World War II, since the beginning of the day on May 8, Russian troops have hit the territory of the Sumy region with about a hundred guided aerial bombs.

Source: Colonel Yurii Ihnat, Head of the Communications Department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the air of the national telethon

Quote: "I think the messages that have been there since the night have given clear answers to the whole world about how Russia adheres to the truce, which it itself unilaterally announced... Putin's so-called "ceremonial truce" began with the fact that after zero hours, the enemy's tactical aircraft simply bombed the Sumy region virtually non-stop...

https://m.bild.de/politik/ralf-stegner-geheimtreffen-mit-putin-schergen-in-baku-681d1aa1a81ba818d8fa69af

Ah Germany, double dealing as usual with Bild reporting that leading politicians of both main parties including the CDU leader and chanxellor candidate in the last election in 2021, Armin Laschet, have been having secret meetings with people close to Putin in Baku

Hungary caught spying on Ukraine

God dammit Hungary…and of course it's in the Transcarpathia too.

Briefly if you don't about this: The Transcarpathia is a section of far-Western Ukraine.

It's passed hands a few times in history, and for a good chunk of that time it was part of neighboring Hungary.

By WWII it was part of Czechoslovakia until given to the Axis-membered Kingdom of Hungary by Nazi Germany then after the war it was transferred to Soviet Ukriane, which gives us the current border.

Some elements in Hungary view this area as somewhere that should be rejoined to modern Hungary, thus this silly spy nonsense was probably part of that.

The ridiculous irony of all that is that if the Hungarians would just be rid of the nonsense their Trump Mini-me Prime-minister and focused on helping Ukraine, then Ukraine would far sooner be in a position to join the EU Customs Union and possibly even Schengan. Then the Ukriane/Hungary border would be just like the Holland/Belguim border; little more than a line on the ground that you can cross riding a local bus if you want to.

"Nuclear Power"

In fairness of course, the Soviet Union were a Nuclear Power, and the Russian Federation inherited most of that, however: they've shown very little beyond nuclear bluster in recent decades, and despite all manner of red lines as well as actual invasion into Russia…no nukes were used.

Russia are of course dangerous, but I think it's time to retire their Nuclear threat. I suspect that it doesn't exist anymore beyond the pile of rusted 70's era tech in an abandoned tunnel system.

As for "Power". Yea..Russia used to be a Power…they even used to be an Empire…but now they're dysfunctional large European state who are creeking under the legacy of what came before. They're no Soviet Union, not even close. For sure, they are dangerous, but that threat assesment should be measured against the threat they are now…and not the threat that the Kremlin dream that they are.