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The 2025 All Ireland Senior Football Championship (Sam Maguire Cup)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    What facts? You have not presented any facts but suppositions and logical fallacies in the post above

    For example;

    “The Meath win is further proof that other counties have been wronged “

    Elaborate on that please how have Meath being wronged? And where is the “proof”?

    If anything Meath are more famous for losing to teams they should beat these days such as Westmeath 2015 in the Leinster SF GAA HQ, Westmeath were 10 points behind. or worse the famous Leinster “win” v Louth in 2010 GAA HQ. They spent the guts of 15 years in div 2. If anyone wronged Meath it is surely their county board for years of mismanagement?

    To me the Meath win in Portlaoise is proof of the excellent rules Jim Gavin and Fitzmaurice designed for weaker counties (such as Meath) to force them to be more proactive.
    It worked brilliantly no static defensive stuff from the Royals. Jim Gavin effectively saved Meath from themselves.

    Constrast this to when Dublin won “pulling up” under the old rules in Navan in the most recent previous encounter during the league in 2023 Div 2. Final score -

    Meath 1-11 (14)  (25) 2-19 Dublin

    The win in Portlaoise for “Da Royals” is also proof that Dublin football still produces great mangers such as former Kilmacud manger and club AI winner- Robbie Brennan.

    In summary only for -

    1 The rewriting of Gaelic Football Rules (by a Dub)

    2. The training of the current Meath manager in the cauldron of Dublin club football,

    3. Meath supporters apathy leading to falling attendances, and the Leinster Council deciding to move the game from GAA HQ because of it

    Meath would never have come near that win in the location of Portlaoise otherwise.
    I did note however, the level of “support” by Meath fans was still very small but vocal in Portlaoise. Most of them didn’t bother showing up, as it was. Have the fans “wronged” their team?

    -

    Those are the three key reasons of Meath’s victory (playing personnel aside) two of which is because of Dublin GAA. And the other is because of how fickle Meath fans have become. As years of losing to not only to Dublin in the last decade, but Westmeath, Louth etc broke the fair weather Meath supporter’s soul.

    Dublin have been too nice to Meath -


    Ironically if Meath were broken more and sooner it would have been even more pointless using Croke Park for a Dublin v Meath Leinster SF game.
    But Dublin were nice time and again “pulling up” when beating Meath in the past. Bigger hammerings sooner, would have meant a quicker decline in attendance. And therefore a quicker move outside CP.

    As the sole reason CP was nominated as a venue was because of crowd size, ticket demand. It needed the Leinster SF to fall to around 20k before it made financial sense for the Leinster Council to move it out of CP.

    In 2016 Dublin v Laois Nowlan Park Leinster QF was 16k. Most of those in attendance were Dubs. The Leinster SF’s had to fall to similar levels for the Leinster Council to make it a sensible move. As Dublin (are still) the financial cash cow of the Leinster Council. And those gates trickle down to Leinster counties.
    Dublin GAA have been decent enough to accept that for as long as the Leinster Council deemed it beneficial for the province as a whole. Which is very magnanimous in my view.

    Post edited by gormdubhgorm on

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,704 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Wow, this has really got to you! 🤣 Take it easy, no need to be writing essays. I've pointed out the facts a number of times now. Dublin footballers home ground is Croke Park, that's based on the fact that they've played all bar 1 or 2 home championship games in Croke Park for the past 50 years. You've had to drop your argument about Parnell Park because of this fact so you've accepted that fact.

    Another fact that you've had to accept is that playing at home on nearly every game for 2 decades is a serious advantage. There's a huge number of studies which back this up. Do you dispute these studies?

    No need to be lashing out at other counties, you just have to accept that Dublin have benefitted hugely from playing the huge majority of their championship matches in their home ground for decades. It's an undisputable fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    I explained it simply and clearly. I provided with fact as well. which led to Meath’s win variables which you ignore.

    The only variable you chose to pick is the change of venue. Claiming that to be a “proof” Meath were previously “wronged” with no evidence to back up why.
    And you would have to question your sincerity in doing so. As your undercurrent of deviousness is very evident. You keep calling CP Dublin’s home it is not. It is GAA HQ.

    You claim this change of venue is a proof yet have provided none on a sample size of one game, as well. A proof normally comes with a larger sample size To be statistically viable, examining a hypothesis along with other variables.

    You have only focused in on one variable Portlaoise venue, ignoring the far more relevant variable such as rule changes.

    Besides those variables the ones on the playing side impacted the result. Example injury of Bugler on the day he didn’t play . And the early retirement of Fenton, along with other injuries .
    Do you really think that a full strength Dublin panel would not have folded Meath in the last 10 minutes in Portlaoise ?
    Meath were lucky to hang on as it was 1-6 no reply for Dublin late on.

    Meath were buckling. 2 pointers saved them, first half. That wasn’t to do with venue. Mostly new rules, and player availability. Tactical errors from Dublin etc.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,704 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    More essays. It's ok to admit that Dublin received an advantage by playing nearly every game at home, you know? Why are you not able to admit it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    Again you claim one single match and one variable was a “proof” Meath and other counties were “wronged” citing no other variables. Except change of venue. Why is that?

    Using your logic I could say that Dublin hammering Laois Leinster QF in Nowlan Park 2016 championship is is a counter “proof” that Laois don’t like ice cream weather in Nowlan Park. Dublin won by loads it was a non event competitively in a party atmosphere.
    Where is the “wrong” then?

    You have STILL to back your claim up that this Meath win in Portlaoise was a proof. Repeating the same hypothesis with no evidence.
    If the Meath v Dublin match was a series of games, you might have a point.

    However, your whole flawed hypothesis is based on one match and one variable- venue. Ignoring rule changes, which is a much more relevant variable than venue change.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,510 ✭✭✭Comic Book Guy


    Surely we get a group of death later this afternoon.

    Kerry, Armagh/Donegal, Dublin, Derry anyone?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,054 ✭✭✭flasher0030


    Just updating that for you 😏

    Kerry/Clare, Armagh/Donegal, Dublin, Derry



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,704 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    If you want to argue against the multiple peer reviewed studies that state that playing at home in sport is an advantage then go ahead. Let's hear your case. Here's a quote from one of those studies:

    Previous studies have identified 5 main causes of home advantage in competitive sports: crowd, familiarity, travels, rules and territoriality. Moreover, several studies have proposed the influence of these factors over psychological and behavioral states in athletes, coaches and referees.

    You like typing out essays, let's get your thesis on playing at home is not an advantage in sport. 🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,054 ✭✭✭flasher0030


    I understand what you are saying about Dublin being the greatest team ever, and there have been several hundred (maybe thousand) comments on Boards by either dubs siding with this, or non-dubs arguing about the various advantages which diminish the achievements. I can see both views.

    However, you made a comment here not long ago that Croke Park may be a disadvantage for Dublin footballers to play in. This is where you moved from being genuine to being humorous or if not, then being ridiculous. Anyone knows that being familiar with a GAA pitch/ground makes it easier. And also the proximity of being close to the pitch so as not to have to travel far, or stay over in unfamiliar setting. And also more supports than the opposition, again on account of proximity to the ground.

    If I were you, I would take back that comment about it being a disadvantage and advise that you were saying it in jest. At least it would show a bit of credibility in terms of your other points.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    Again you don’t answer the question. We are talking Gaelic not other codes. There are more scores in it for start than soccer for example which might have one or no score in a match.

    The rule changes in Gaelic Football, are a variable that are measured and they are said to have favoured weaker sides. Making games closer. And making weaker sides more proactive in mindset. Robbie Brennan himself said that under the “new rules” it forced Meath to “go for it” “no choice, can’t sit back like the old rules”

    If you look at the two point scores Meath got four Dublin got two. Meath was forced to attack.

    That to me is real testimony to Jim Gavin and his Kerry assistant, Fitzmaurice.

    You still have not provided your “proof” that the win in Portlaoise proved that Meath and other countries were “wronged”. Nor have you defined “Wronged”.

    To me the REAL proof of the Meath win is that the new rules have hastened the decline of Dublin, as simple as that. Irrespective of venue.

    League and championship have “proven” this. It is not based on one event like your so called “Proof”.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,957 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    I bet Kerry and Dublin will end up in the same group to get the media excited.

    3 qualifying from a group tempers the jeopardy a bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,704 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    I've got good news for you! Research into home advantage in Gaelic Football has been done so we don't have to discuss any other codes. 😀

    But I've also got bad news for you ☹️, the study finds conclusively that playing at home is an advantage:

    The sample included 1973 matches from 32 teams over a 9-season period. HA was calculated based on the number of points gained at home conveyed as a percentage of total points gained (Pollard and Pollard, 2005). A linear regression analysis was utilised to control for ability by adjusting HA (Pollard and Gómez, 2007). In this study, HA (57.4%) is present and significantly greater (P < 0.001) than the null value of 50%. 

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24748668.2018.1528523

    So sorry about that. The evidence shows that playing at home in Gaelic Football is an advantage. Ergo, Dublin playing nearly every single championship game at home is a major advantage. Fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 539 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    Meath were always seen as Leinsters second best during the Dublin reign

    It must really hurt them to know even after beating Dublin they are still the second best team in Leinster as Louth showed against them last year and this year, hammering them twice



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,682 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Croke Park has also been a happy hunting ground for the Kilkenny hurlers. 19 Leinsters since 2000. Dublin got 20 in the football. Because the opposition in both codes is so poor. The venue is not of much importance.

    There is a bit of hope for Leinster next year. If the four counties in Division 2 perform well, Leinster could have five in Sam. And perhaps one more depending on who wins the Tailteann. Maybe Meath will get promoted to Division 1, and Dublin will be relegated again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    The problem with that is you used one limited statistical event which is not statistically significant “Meath beating Dublin Portlaoise” , and using one variable (change of venue) one single match as “evidence” of a proof of being wronged previously.

    It is a very small sample size you have picked - one game new rules in Portlaoise.

    That is a logical fallacy. As it cannot be statistically significant it was one game.
    You also only used one variable venue change. That’s not how data is proven statistically significant.


    Also you have not defined “wronged”
    Then pretended to apply that very limited data one match, to old previous data under old rules. Ignoring the main variables, various rule changes.

    Your whole premise that Meath beating Dublin in Portlaoise is proof that Meath and other counties were “wronged” is flawed one in many respects. You obviously never studied statistics. Your premise cannot be proven statistically significant.

    Also in statistics it is better to use more than one single variable.

    https://www.statisticssolutions.com/why-your-variables-need-to-vary/

    Post edited by gormdubhgorm on

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,780 ✭✭✭threeball


    I think the new rules are a huge advantage to natural footballers and every county has a few of those, whereas the last decade of blanket defence suited athletes and lads with minimal footballing ability could do a job. With enough analysis and conditioning, alot of well resourced teams could nullify a good footballer fairly easily. Thankfully, that's no longer the case and we're getting to see the really good ballers flourish, plus they have the license to kick from distance with 2pts on offer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,198 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    What an absolute hellscape.

    Ulster winners + Connacht runner up + Tyrone + Cavan.

    Connacht winners+ Ulster runner up + Dublin + Derry.

    And Kerry get a soft Leinster runner up, Roscommon and Cork.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,597 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    All-Ireland SFC Group Draw...

    Group 1: Armagh/Donegal, Galway/Mayo, Tyrone, Cavan

    Group 2: Clare/Kerry, Louth/Meath, Roscommon, Cork

    Group 3: Louth/Meath, Clare/Kerry, Monaghan, Down

    Group 4: Galway/Mayo, Armagh/Donegal, Dublin, Derry



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭poppers


    2025 All-Ireland SFC draw

    Group 1: Ulster winner, Connacht runner-up, Tyrone, Cavan

    Group 2: Munster winner, Leinster runner-up, Roscommon, Cork

    Group 3: Leinster winner, Munster runner-up, Monaghan, Down

    Group 4: Connacht winner, Ulster runner-up, Dublin, Derry

    gp 4 looking spicy

    Not sue is it still 3 from 4 or just top two into quaters



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,198 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Not sue is it still 3 from 4 or just top two into quaters

    3 from 4



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 569 ✭✭✭Avon8


    Regardless of a win or loss Sunday, that's the 7th successive time Galway have got the hardest draw possible. Future studies could be done about it, especially in relation to other provincial winners from the last few years, i.e Kerry

    The odds of it occuring are 2186/1



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,750 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    There is no way that can be proven- however, what one can do is make a case for it. And the case that Dublin - coming under pressure, will be more impact by an opposition crowd in a small tight venue, than in the cavern that is Croke Park where fans for this type of ground are spread around the stadium. Thats an entirely reasonably proposition to make.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,750 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    So group winners go into QF, and come out against 2nd/3rd winners? Hard to have a group of death in that scenario.

    Monaghan the big winners above - they are in a stronger position now than Donegal or Armagh, and thats before the Ulster Final even played.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,750 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    Meath and Louth will both be decent - seems like there is not much between these teams and Dublin at the moment, and Kerry would not regard Dublin as a soft touch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 539 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    The Louth V Meath game has become even bigger.

    No disrespect to any other teams but the winner will be in a group with Monaghan, Clare, Down. The loser will have Kerry, Roscommon, Cork

    Both Louth and Meath would be fancying a one off game v Monaghan to go straight into a 1/4 final



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,750 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    yeah - equally Monaghan will be fancying same, and did a fair number on Meath in the league in Navan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 539 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    Oh I'd agree. Monaghan blew Louth away in the first half in Drogheda in league too

    Even aside that, as a Louth man if much rather play Clare and Down, than Roscommon and Cork



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    See that is a fair point the way you put it. The Dublin hurlers prove that in Parnell . But that is not the way @Musicrules framed it.

    First the premise the poster created was Dublin playing in CP in Leinster SF brought into question Dublin’s achievements, then further claimed that Meath and other counties were “wronged” and the win in Portlaoise “proved” it.


    Which is a very flimsy premise at best, one which the poster was not able to back up. Despite my repeated attempts to give the poster a chance to elaborate.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,704 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    I didn't complete the research. It was completed by 2 fellas in the University of Ulster:

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24748668.2018.1528523

    They found conclusively that playing at home in Gaelic Football is an advantage. You can send an angry email to the fellas if you want but it won't change facts. Playing at home in Gaelic Football is an advantage. Playing nearly every championship game at home means that Dublin have received a serious advantage for decades. Don't shoot the messenger.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,032 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    I will definitely go to the Louth match now. All Dublin supporters should get out the red jerseys, Shels Soccer top looks similar to Louth’s GAA one for start! 🤨 St Brigids, Clontarf are red as well.

    Support the Dub in the dugout!

    I am sure all the neutral supporters will want Louth to win. Not only that I would have Louth favourites, especially with Mulroy back.

    I still don’t know the Dundalk accent v Drogheda one. That is my homework.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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