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Boards weather forecast contest, April 2025

2

Comments

  • #32
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,552 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    19.6C Valentia

    www.weatheire.com



  • #33
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    20.2c at Newport today (apparently).



  • #34
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,904 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    21.7c at Newport today (apparently).



  • #35
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Newport is a furnace at 22c



  • #36
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭appledrop


    21.9 confirmed at scorching Newport.



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  • #37
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭pauldry


    21.3c is most I currently see for today.

    One more stab at 21c or 22c tomorrow but maybe not Newport.



  • #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Back from a week away, wonderful weather all week (29 C in Utah on Friday), just looked at current climate stats, IMT 10.7 C to 12th, MAX 19.5 and MIN -1.5 in your recent posts (thanks), PRC looks to be 2% so far, and SUN near if not over 200%. Wow. I'm not jealous as that is exactly the pattern where I've just been as well … Anyway, will do a more in-depth look at week one that I missed reporting, and do the usual week two report on 15th. The IMT is fairly close to 3 C above normal for first 12 days of April, would think 7.8 is about normal. I am not up to speed on current weather but can see from radar that dry spell is ending.



  • #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks …

    IMT 10.4 C, second week average 9.9 (1.4 above normal)

    MAX 21.9

    MIN -1.5

    PRC 17% _ second week average 32% of normal _ rain so far is 8% of April's total average value

    … despite the dry start, GFS predicts above normal rain for second half and an outcome near 80%.

    SUN 205% _ second week average 185% of normal _ if the SUN is average now to end of month, outcome will be 150%.

    MAX 20th _ Current forecast guidance indicates 13 C and Shannon as most likely location.

    Will post a table of our forecasts for 20th later.



  • #40
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for 20th April max, location

    Esposito _________ 19.7 Valentia

    Sunflower3 _______ 19.0 Shannon

    Artane2002 _______18.5 Mount Dillon

    Joe Public ________ 18.1 Casement

    MrSkinner ________ 17.8 Valentia

    JPmarn __________ 17.5 Shannon

    Mr Stonewall ______ 17.2 Shannon

    Adam240610 ______17.1 Shannon

    sryanbruen _______ 17.1 Shannon

    Pauldry ___________17.1 Shannon

    ___ Consensus _____17.0 Shannon

    Appledrop _________17.0 Shannon

    Tae laidir __________17.0 Mullingar

    Bsal ______________17.0 Ballyhaise

    Dacogawa _________16.8 Shannon

    Gonzo ____________16.7 Shannon

    Kindred Spirit ______16.5 Shannon

    DOCARCH _________16.3 Newport

    WolfeEire _________ 15.5 Valentia

    Dasa29 __________ 15.5 Mullingar

    M.T.Cranium _______15.2 Oak Park

    john mac _________ 15.0 Newport

    waterways ________ 14.4 Shannon

    Cornerstonelad _____14.0 Valentia

    ___ NormaL _______14.0 loc'n score by climatology



  • #41
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭appledrop


    That min might be beaten over the next two nights.



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  • #42
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,447 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -2.3c Mullingar provisionally



  • #43
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭appledrop


    -2.4 confirmed at Markree.



  • #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    PRC forecasts are in a range of 58 to 95 per cent, looks like we will make it to a guaranteed 50% after these two wet days, guidance says higher forecasts are now favoured.

    SUN forecasts 109-142 %, can score these already I think (even a cloudy last ten days probably breaks 150%).



  • #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    To 17 April, Shannon was at 159.6 hrs of sun, record for April is 243.6 (2015), 2010 at 230.8, 2021 at 218.4, 2007 at 212.1 and 196.9 in 2006 are top five (records 1946-2024).

    Record needs 84 hrs (7 per day 19-30, as probably near zero today). Top five needs 37.4 (3 per day) so I will speculate 2025 ends near 4th place 2007.



  • #46
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 756 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    My PRC prediction destroyed in 2 days!



  • #47
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Happy Easter everyone 🐣

    Oak Park and Shannon both reporting 14 degrees, Oak Park for more hours so that might end up highest max but all will be revealed tomorrow!



  • #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Both were 14.2 on meteociel, will wait for official values but if so, waterways is definitely #1 and I did okay also. john mac and cornerstonelad will do well on temps.



  • #49
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Yep it's a tie, 14.2 at Oak Park & Shannon.



  • #50
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    For locations,

    __ locations chosen ____________________ locations not chosen

    14.2 at Oak Park and Shannon __3 pts __

    14.0 at Newport _____________ 2 pts __ 13.4 Roches Point, 13.4 Belmullet

    13.1 at Mullingar _____________2 pts __ 13.2 Claremorris, 13.2 Athenry

    12.5 at Casement ____________ 2 pts __ 13.0 Moorepark, 12.9 PPark, 12.8 Dunsany, 12.6 Cork

    12.2 at Ballyhaise ____________ 1 pt __ 12.4 Gurteen, 12.4 Mace head, 12.0 Sherkin Is

    12.0 at Valentia ______________1 pt __ 11.9 Johnstown, 11.8 Markree

    11.6 at Mount Dillon __________ 1 pt __ 11.6 Finner, 11.6 Dublin, 10.7 Malin head, 10.7 Knock

    Scoring for April bonus

    FORECASTER ______ Forecast __________ Score __ Loc'n _ sb _TOTAL

    Esposito _________ 19.7 Valentia __________ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2

    Sunflower3 _______ 19.0 Shannon _________ 1 _____ 3 ______ 4

    Artane2002 _______18.5 Mount Dillon ______ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2

    Joe Public ________ 18.1 Casement ________ 2 _____ 2 ______ 4

    MrSkinner ________ 17.8 Valentia __________2 _____ 1 ______ 3

    JPmarn __________ 17.5 Shannon _________ 2 _____ 3 ______ 5

    Mr Stonewall ______ 17.2 Shannon _________3 _____ 3 ______ 6

    Adam240610 ______17.1 Shannon _________ 3 _____ 3 ______ 6

    sryanbruen _______ 17.1 Shannon _________ 3 _____ 3 ______ 6

    Pauldry ___________17.1 Shannon _________3 _____ 3 ______ 6

    ___ Consensus _____17.0 Shannon _________3 _____ 3 ______ 6

    Appledrop _________17.0 Shannon _________3 _____ 3 ______ 6

    Tae laidir __________17.0 Mullingar ________ 3 _____ 2 ______ 5

    Bsal ______________17.0 Ballyhaise _______ 3 _____ 1 ______ 4

    Dacogawa _________16.8 Shannon _________4 _____ 3 ______ 7

    Gonzo ____________16.7 Shannon _________4 _____ 3 ______ 7

    Kindred Spirit ______16.5 Shannon _________5 _____ 3 ______ 8

    DOCARCH _________16.3 Newport _________ 5 _____ 2 ______ 7

    WolfeEire _________ 15.5 Valentia __________6 _____ 1 ______ 7

    Dasa29 __________ 15.5 Mullingar _________ 6 _____ 2 ______ 8

    M.T.Cranium _______15.2 Oak Park _________ 6 _____ 3 _ 1 __ 10

    john mac _________ 15.0 Newport __________7 _____ 2 _ 1 __ 10

    waterways ________ 14.4 Shannon _________ 7 _____ 3 _ 2 __ 12

    Cornerstonelad _____14.0 Valentia __________7 _____ 1 ______ 8

    ___ NormaL _______14.0 _________________7 _____ 3 _ 2 ___12

    ___________________________________

    superbonus points are 2 for (7,3) and 1 for (7,2 or 6,3).

    Congrats to waterways and Cornerstonelad for closest forecasts (0.2 errors).



  • #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks …

    IMT 9.7 C, third week average 8.5 (0.4 below normal) … GFS predicts final value of 10.4 C.

    MAX 21.9

    MIN -2.4

    PRC 114% _ third week average 307% of normal _ rain so far is 78% of April's total average value (95% if rain today included … despite all forecasts at 95% or lower, GFS predicts enough rain for an outcome near 135%.

    SUN 163% _ third week average 79% of normal _ if the SUN is 95% of average now to end of month, outcome will be 142%, our top forecast. Only 52% now to 30 April is needed for 130% as final value. (best est is 135%)

    MAX 20th _ 14.2 Shannon and Oak Park, scoring in previous post.



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  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It's official — PRC passed 100% before today (101% after 24 days), likely to settle in close to 112% but now appears no significant additions as weekend rain stays largely off to n.w., PRC scoring will only need a slight boost.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • #53
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,552 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    22c at Valentia

    graphe2.png

    www.weatheire.com



  • #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks …

    IMT 10.3 C, fourth week average 12.0 (2.5 above normal) … final value near 10.7 C.

    MAX 21.9 to 28 Apr, today could go higher.

    MIN -2.4

    PRC 133% _ fourth week average 194% of normal _ will end near 117% of April's total average despite all forecasts at 95% or lower. Will score 1-14.

    SUN 139% _ fourth week average 65% of normal _ if the SUN is 250% of average today and 30th to end of month, outcome will be 145% near 142%, our top forecast. Will score as 140 anyway.

    MAX 20th _ 14.2 Shannon and Oak Park, scoring in a previous post.

    May contest will appear soon.



  • #55
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 756 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Valentia confirmed at 22.5



  • #56
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,552 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    24c at Shannon

    www.weatheire.com



  • #57
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,552 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    25.5c at Newport

    www.weatheire.com



  • #58
    WolfeEire
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,552 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    25.9c provisionally at athenry, galway

    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.weatheire.com



  • #59
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    On the later news they announced 25.9C at Athenry



  • #60
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Whatever MAX turns out to be, it's likely well beyond our highest forecast of 24.2 (Joe Public) so it will be scored from minimum progression, likely 1-19 points in the fairest available sequence once I look at differentials.

    IMT is going to need a bit of a boost also, as 10.3 was our highest forecast and today's readings likely boosted it to 10.8 C.

    Some preliminary scoring will appear during the next day or so, believe we will be on schedule to get final confirmed results by Friday 1130h or so.



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  • #61
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,006 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Preliminary Scoring for April 2025

    FORECASTER ____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_ SUN __Max 20th, loc'n _ TOTALS

    Gonzo ___________ 23^_ 08^_ 18 _ 06^_ 07 __ 4 __ 3 ____ 69

    sryanbruen _______ 22^_ 14^_ 04 _ 09^_ 06 __ 3 __ 3 ____ 61

    Esposito _________ 22^_ 10^_ 16 _ 06^_ 06 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 62

    Sunflower3 _______ 22^_ 04^_ 18 _ 06^_ 06 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 60

    Cornerstonelad ____ 21^_ 17^_ 15 _ 07^_ 08 __ 7 __ 1 ____ 76

    Jpmarn __________ 21^_ 10^_ 19 _ 02^_ 07 __ 2 __ 3 ____ 64

    Adam240610 _____ 20^_ 15^_ 14 _ 02^_ 08 __ 3 __ 3 ____ 65

    Artane2002 _______20^_ 14^_ 17 _ 07^_ 06 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 66

    MrSkinner ________ 20^_ 08^_ 16 _ 02^_ 06 __ 2 __ 1 ____ 55

    Joe Public _________19^_ 19^_ 17 _ 09^_ 06 __ 2 __ 2 ____ 74

    Mr Stonewall ______ 19^_ 12^_ 10 _ 14^_ 04 __ 3 __ 3 ____ 65

    Dacogawa _________19^_ 11^_ 19 _ 04^_ 10 __ 4 __ 3 ____ 70

    __ Con Sensus _____19^_ 10^_ 16 _ 06^_ 06 __ 3 __ 3 ____ 63

    Appledrop _________18^_ 08^_ 16 _ 07^_ 06 __ 3 __ 3 ____ 61

    Tae laidir __________17^_ 13^_ 11 _ 02^_ 06 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 54

    Bsal ______________17^_ 08^_ 16 _ 06^_ 06 __ 3 __ 1 ____ 57

    WolfeEire __________16^_ 08^_ 09 _ 07^_ 05 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 52

    Pauldry ___________ 15^_ 10^_ 13 _ 06^_ 04 __ 3 __ 3 ____ 54

    Kindred Spirit ______ 15^_ 10^_ 14 _ 11^_ 04 __ 5 __ 3 ____ 62

    DOCARCH _________ 13^_ 03^_ 12 _ 07^_ 05 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 47

    john mac __________12^_ 16^_ 13 _ 14^_ 04 __ 7 __ 2 +1 _ 69

    M.T.Cranium _______ 10^_ 12^_ 12 _ 07^_ 05 __ 6 __ 3 +1 _ 56

    Dasa29 ___________ 10^_ 01^_ 19 _ 06^_ 04 __ 6 __ 2 ____ 48

    waterways _________ 07^_ 13^_ 20 _ 05^_ 07 __ 7 __ 3 +2 _ 64

    __ NormaL _________04^_ 10^_ 14 _ 14^_ 02 __ 7 __ 3 +2 _ 56

    ^ scored by minimum progression _ SUN will be scored from 140% if

    actual value higher than 142.

    =======

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 20 Apr, loc'n

    Gonzo ___________ 10.3 _ 21.5 _ -2.6 _ 072 _ 127 __ 16.7 Shannon

    sryanbruen _______ 10.2 _ 22.6 _ -4.0 _ 080 _ 120 __ 17.1 Shannon

    Esposito _________ 10.2 _ 21.9 _ -2.8 _ 070 _ 120 __ 19.7 Valentia

    Sunflower3 _______ 10.2 _ 20.8 _ -2.2 _ 070 _ 120 __ 19.0 Shannon

    Cornerstonelad ____ 10.1 _ 23.2 _ -2.9 _ 075 _ 130 __ 14.0 Valentia

    Jpmarn __________ 10.1 _ 21.8 _ -2.5 _ 060 _ 125 __ 17.5 Shannon

    Adam240610 _____ 10.0 _ 22.9 _ -3.0 _ 060 _ 130 __ 17.1 Shannon

    Artane2002 _______10.0 _ 22.7 _ -2.1 _ 075 _ 120 __ 18.5 Mount Dillon

    MrSkinner ________ 10.0 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 060 _ 120 __ 17.8 Valentia

    Joe Public _________ 9.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 080 _ 120 __ 18.1 Casement

    Mr Stonewall _______9.9 _ 22.1 _ -1.4 _ 095 _ 110 __ 17.2 Shannon

    Dacogawa _________ 9.9 _ 22.0 _ -2.3 _ 065 _ 142 __ 16.8 Shannon

    ___ Consensus ____ 9.9 _ 21.9 _ -2.8 _ 072 _ 120 __ 17.0 Shannon

    Appledrop _________9.8 _ 21.5 _ -2.0 _ 073 _ 122 __ 17.0 Shannon

    Tae laidir __________9.7 _ 22.2 _ -1.5 _ 058 _ 122 __ 17.0 Mullingar

    Bsal ______________9.7 _ 21.5 _ -2.0 _ 070 _ 120 __ 17.0 Ballyhaise

    WolfeEire __________9.6 _ 21.5 _ -3.5 _ 075 _ 115 __ 15.5 Valentia

    Pauldry ___________ 9.5 _ 21.8 _ -3.1 _ 072 _ 112 __ 17.1 Shannon

    Kindred Spirit ______ 9.5 _ 21.8 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 __ 16.5 Shannon

    DOCARCH _________ 9.3 _ 21.2 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 113 __ 16.3 Newport

    john mac __________ 9.2 _ 23.0 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 109 __ 15.0 Newport

    M.T.Cranium _______ 9.0 _ 22.1 _ -3.2 _ 075 _ 115 __ 15.2 Oak Park

    Dasa29 ___________ 9.0 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 070 _ 110 __ 15.5 Mullingar

    waterways _________8.7 _ 22.3 _ -2.4 _ 067 _ 123 __ 14.4 Shannon

    ___ NormaL _______ 8.4 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 14.0 loc'n score by climatology

    … to be confirmed 2nd May, annual update to follow

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


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