Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

that’s a ‘great deal’!!!!! - Russia giving up the Donbas , etc, etc, etc, etc. Knowing what Russia is capable of - and the US when it guaranteed the security of Ukr if it gave up its nuclear weapons- the ONLY QUESTION is how long will Russia give up the Donbas , etc, etc for BEFORE it starts to attack again??????

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-russia-ukraine-peace-plan-crimea-donbas

What Russia gets under Trump's proposal

1. "De jure" U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea.
2. "De-facto recognition" of the Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
3. A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. The text notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union.
4. The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.
5. Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.

What Ukraine gets under Trump's proposal

1. "A robust security guarantee" involving an ad hoc group of European countries and potentially also like-minded non-European countries. The document is vague in terms of how this peacekeeping operation would function and does not mention any U.S. participation.
2. The return of the small part of Kharkiv oblast Russia has occupied.
3. Unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River, which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.
4. Compensation and assistance for rebuilding, though the document does not say where the funding will come from.

Other elements of the plan

• The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest such facility in Europe — will be considered as Ukrainian territory but operated by the U.S., with electricity supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.
• The document references the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, which Trump has said will be signed on Thursday.

A "robust" security guarantee … details to be confirmed. Yeah, sounds very robust alright. So typically Trump - all concept and no plan.

Even if you knew nothing about the (US) people involved, you'd know this was a proposal cobbled together by a bunch of used carsalesmen and estate agents, with no experience of serious negotiations.

What a traitorous wretch the Americans have become.

All available evidence supports the Krasnov theory. The only thing I am aware of that Trump has done that wasn't in Putin's interest was renewing the ban on Orc ships access to US ports.

Any update on the US “we will walk away soon” threat ?

It might be best that they do walk and let Europe Russia and Ukraine come to some sort of agreement

The Japanese Institute iQPS (Q-shu Pioneers of Space) at Kyushu University will provide the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GUR) with satellite images obtained by scanning technique with synthetic aperture radars (SAR).

An agreement to this effect was signed last week, although talks between the Japanese and Ukrainian authorities began at the end of February. Dialogue on the issue intensified after the United States suspended its satellite intelligence support for Ukraine on March 6, although Washington later reversed that decision.

iQPS has five SAR observation satellites in orbit - and plans to launch two more by the end of 2026 - but the start of providing data to Ukraine will take about three more months, during which time the installation and adaptation of the iQPS reception applications on the GUR platform will take place.

At the same time, Japan reconfirmed its commitment to provide Ukraine with $1 billion to help compensate for the loss of US financial support.

The intelligence service of the Ukrainian Army is working on several fronts to become independent of the American services, trying to be prepared for situations in which Washington will withdraw its aid again.

With iQPS at its disposal, Kyiv can rest easier about satellite images obtained through the use of high-resolution radars. This capability comes in addition to similar information provided by Finland's Iceye and, to a lesser extent, Germany's SAR-Lupe and SARah or Italy's Cosmo-SkyMed and Cosmo-SkyMed 2.

It is estimated that, when combined, these international capabilities can provide more information (2D and 3D radar images) than what the US National Reconnaissance Office previously provided using its own means and through purchases from commercial operators Capella Space and Umbra.

However, as for images obtained from satellites that use optical sensors or cameras to capture high-resolution images of the Earth's surface in the visible or infrared spectrum, Ukraine has yet to work on independence from American services.

Despite access to Airbus Group's Pléiades Neo satellites and extensive rights to download images obtained with French satellites in the CSO range, Ukraine obtains well below what it received from the US, either directly or through access to commercial images from Maxar and BlackSky acquired through contracts of the National Geospatial Information Agency.

There is currently no European operator capable of providing optical satellite imagery at the level of the US (and some private companies), both in terms of data available throughout the day and access to live streaming tools, ideal for monitoring the dynamics of enemy forces. Even after officially reopening data flows in early March, Washington continued to limit Ukraine's access to images deep inside Russian territory.

Excellent detailed article. I should have just linked to it, but it's in Romanian.

It should be noted that reconnaissance drones can generally supply superior imagery to satellites, and Ukraine have been using a lot of these, the V-Bat in particular seeming to be highly capable. I had wondered why Shield AI, maker of the V-Bat drone was seemingly being far more helpful to Ukraine than most US companies. Turns out the company was founded, and is run by, a Brit with former military experience.

 He doesn't have to swallow anything… he's been admirably leading Ukraine for the past few years with a largely supportive population and military behind him. He knows that its not for him to swallow any deal… 

Okay he doesn't in principle but what if the alternative is America pulling all support for Ukraine and the entire country being overrun by the orcs before the end of 2025? Okay he could do a Pontius Pilate and pass this Hobson's Choice on to another president but how would that improve the situation?

Sikorski again, with some lighthearted Orc-teasing.

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1915027584414269464

The Japanese are one of the largest donors to Ukraine since 2014 of non lethal aid (due to their constitutional restrictions) spending billions

Something we in Ireland should try to match

Will Putin last another 3 years? Ukraine will.

Ironically, I think he's telling the truth (as he sees it). He's very much in the Putin-Russia camp and views Zelensky as a troublemaker who somehow caused the 2022 invasion.

You must be in a great mood today as I see you feeling very generous in your evaluation there.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78jx68d922o

"Vance said a deal between Russia and Ukraine would likely require both countries "to have to give up some of the territory they currently own"

I think the s*tstain meant to say the territory that Russia "occupies"

This is what happens when you literally have a pro Russian negotiating team trying to agree a deal with Putin.

Putin has given the Trump team a wish list and they are presenting it now as the compromise peace plan.

Now let's not be naive here, any ceasefire agreement was never going to achieve Russia removing all its troops from occupied territories.

But Trump saying he will recognise Crimea as Russian and agreeing to lift all sanctions without any idea of any security guarantee whatsoever was never going to be accepted by Ukraine. Trump showing time and time again who's side he is on.