Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

agree, hard to see how Trump can ‘defy gravity’ in relation to the bond markets. Was it Carville a former Clinton advisor who famously said he would like to be ‘reincarnated as the bond market’ given its ability to drive policy… throw into the mix the fact that China holds huge volumes of US treasuries

Liz Truss for slow learners I think …

Absolutely serious. No one in a position of authority in the US has ever taken Trump for a one on one chat and told him he is not an essential item for the party. He's where he is not because of the Democrats or the voter, he's there because of the GOP. His behaviour is that of a bully. Bullies rely on intimidation to stay in power. Given the right approach from the right person, he will crumble. It only remains for the GOP to impel that person forward with promise to set him up for life, only not as a replacement for Trump in the Oval Office.

The NYSE futures market suggests it will be another grim day on Wall Street tomorrow and worse if China retaliates. As usual the Chinese govt will more than likely make their announcement just before trading opens for maximum effect.

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures

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I find it curious how fondly Trump speaks of the Irish. He clearly knows that speaking ill of the population in general would cause a hit on his public perception.

Maybe people calling for the government to kowtow to Trump need to realise that while he may put tariffs on our goods, he can't diplomatically **** on us. The reality is he can only turn the screw a little.

Trump just signed the Executive Order for 104% tariffs to be imposed on China from midnight.

He is like Putin in that he has been in power too long. Hubris syndrome is a thing that leaves you blind in certain areas, and both Xi and Putin suffer from it.

Just on the bond yield conspiracy. This is quite a good article on why yield rose during Covid crisis with heavy selling in equities.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2021/html/ecb.rb211124~d9e3f578d2.en.html

Banks ability to absorb surging demand for safe assets like government bonds were limited as they were required to comply with the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) . Reserves and Treasuries still counted toward leverage exposure, banks therefore were restricted from buying bonds just when they needed to stabilize markets. Investors rushed to sell bonds and hoard cash, market liquidity dried up.

It appears to be the same happening now, a liquidation event, everything gets sold including bonds to raise cash. As happened in 2020 the Fed will need to provide SLR relief to ease the strain before something breaks.

The Irish government is on notice. We could lose a lot of high quality jobs and income.

Media hype ,This not 1929 ,it will come back big time in a couple of days ,and a lot of people will be rich due to low stock prices, joke .

Does Trump think 30,000 Pharma workers in Ireland, their experience, and the facilities they work in, can be replicated in the US in a few weeks? If not, what does he think will happen to the already extortionate drug prices in the US and how does he think Americans will react to price increases? Is he sure that pharma companies are gonna care considering they offer products people have no choice but to purchase regardless of price.

How about the fact that these corporations still need to import ingredients from countries he has tariffed the **** out of?

How about the €55 Billion of Irish pharma exports in 2024 that went to places other than the US? Does he think those companies are going to want to be exporting to those countries from the US instead of from Ireland? Many of whom have tariffed the **** out of the US in retaliation?

There's A LOT of stuff that needs to happen before Ireland loses those jobs!

It will negate it for US firms exporting back to the US - ie Pharma. It will also give the economy an advantage in spite of tariffs. We have control over this and it is a no-brainer.

I think it will happen very soon. An obvious counter measure that does not require EU approval.

I don't see how either withdrawing from the OECD tax treaty or reducing Corporation tax is going to negate the effect of tariffs for US firms importing pharmaceuticals from Ireland. This doesn't seem to make any sense at all. Can you explain?

On a CT reduction negating the effect of the tariffs, can you show me your workings? 'Cause I don't see how this is going to stack up.

On withdrawing from the OECD tax treaty — yes, we can do that; any country can. I'm just looking for a reasoned case in support of your not-obviously-true assertion that it would be in our interests to do so.

Fun fact: Ireland exports about €58 billion p.a. to the US in pharma. If they are subject to a 20% tariff that will attract tariffs of just a shade under €12 billion. So:

(a) how much would Irish CT rates have to be cut so that US pharma companies operating in Ireland paid, between them, €12 billion less in corporation tax? (Do they even pay €12 billion now?)

(b) If Irish CT rates were cut by that much, what would the total reduction in CT take in Ireland be?

I ask because I know you've already done these calculations, because if you hadn't you'd be talking out of your arse, and we know you wouldn't do that, don't we?

It seems to me like market manipulation.

Every sentence uttered by Trump and his proxies has a direct and immediate effect on stock prices.

I am convinced they are absolutely cleaning up behind the scenes.