Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

In a way, it's America's own fault for electing a gambler who bankrupted his own casinos, and it's a lesson they need to learn. On the other hand though, it won't be the likes of Trump who suffer the consequences, and the economic hammer will be smashed on people who did and didn't vote for Trump alike, and the harm it will do to those people will be catastrophic. And worst of all, the lesson still won't have been learned and after a term or two of a Dem president trying to get America back on track, some other populist using Trump's playbook will swoop in, blame the Dem president for the state of the country, and get elected.

The greatest damage Trump has done or will do isn't economics, it is ultimately the destruction of political discourse, norms, and checks & balances, and that goes all the way back to his first term.

Jesus, these American pharma companies are not just based in Ireland.

They have manufacturing facilities in France, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Austria, Italy and more. That's just in Europe.

They have manufacturing facilities all over Asia.

These companies are not going to shut down their global operations and bring everything back to the US to export out with ridiculous tariffs.

Local representatives refused to comment, then lay on their bellies and slid off the ice into the sea.

It's a completely unrealistic scenario. No company is going to sell a product like that with zero profit margin.

You're assuming that the landed price for the import is more expensive than the locally produced one. Companies don't tend to import a car that would cost more than a locally produced one.

Assuming BMW likes to make a profit and sells both SUV's for €80k on the forecourt:

VAT on the US model would be €18,400 and VAT on the EU model would be….. €18,400, the very same amount and %

The end consumer ultimately pays the VAT.

The US and their entire administration can get fucked for the next 4 years, should be as isolated as possible from the rest of the world.

Aside from the 3rd term discussion; I think we (the royal we) need to take a solid lessen from this situation. The USA has shown itself to be a completely unreliable and untrustworthy ally & trading partner. It could well end up being a trade war but irrespective of how this pans out; I don't think the next US administration should be allowed to simply put it down to Trump and his cohort.

the billionaires etc will just get to engage in some disaster capitalism.

Definitely where I would put my money on what the current US administration is doing.

Does this make any sense? So who should it be put down to then? Would you expect us to credit Trump if somehow miraculously it turned out all this stuff worked? For how long has the USA been 'completely unreliable and untrustworthy', did this time suddenly turn out to start this last January (or maybe 2016)? There's a coincidence.

I do agree that Trump is the issue but I partially agree with Suckler in the sense that the US can't be viewed as trustworthy going forward. Their electorate is far too willing to elect insane candidates and I can't see that changing. Their checks and balances are not functional if they're unwilling to ever oust a president etc.

Plus I'm also not entirely sure if they're gonna exit from the path they're following ATM.

At best it’s coming from a place of ignorance and ineptitude, or at worst it’s to destroy all small, and medium, enterprises, in the US, for the massive corporations to hoover up the business.

Or its both, hes too stupid to realise that the billionaires in his ear arent his friends and he's ruining a world leader.

Trumps friend Musk motor co seems to have run into further problems in Europe. After it's decision not to allow collective bargaining between the workforce and it, unions in Norway and Denmark said they would block movement of it's car exports to Sweden. The trouble between Tesla and its workforce over the issue has been brewing up for the past four months. A Swedish Insurance Co, Folksam, has decided to divest itself of the shares it has invested in in Tesla shares to the sum of US$160 Million. A Danish Co, PFA, in December was discussing whether to do the same with its Tesla shares.

Musk, last Friday, posted on X that he had sold his shares in X to his AI Co, xAI. “xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk wrote in a post on X. The deal value, according to AP News, is US$33 Billion in an all shares deal while thehill put it at US$45 Billion.

Hopefully this can be put down to Trump style bluster/posturing and negotiated out so that we/The EU/The US aren't further adversely affected. Trade wars like this never end well for anyone but the proverbial '1%'.

If all this stuff "works"; the apparent end game shows it won't be a two way street and we won't be in any way eventual benefactors (who will remains to be seen), so I doubt we'll be crediting Trump. The fact that you've used the word "miraculously" leads me to think that you'd also agree this is not a well thought out plan to say the least.

However, if the trade war deepens & continues; I don't think we should accept that it be quietly put down to a simple "it was just Trumps 4 years, we'll be friends again" thought process.

If an Asian/African nation came up with this rhetoric and line of thought; we'd collectively steer well clear. The whole administration has gone along with this; they're 100 days old and have embarked on this nonsensical tariff war; checks & balances don't even factor. The announcement and signing fronted by a table with basic arithmetic/economic assessment completely wrong.

When did they become untrustworthy, in my opinion - It's nearly ten years in the making. Trump & the Republican lies/rhetoric were seen in the run up to his 2016 election, he's further those lies and they've now become Government lines. Independent & robust journalism has been completely eroded. The White House press briefings were a running joke under his first term - Sean Spicer & Kayleigh McEnany were allowed to spew lie after lie after lie from the podium. The tone and statements of JD Vance in Europe about Europe shouldn't be permitted to be wiped away too easily. The attitude to Ukraine has the potential to endanger all of Europe but the US administration and people have shown themselves to be completely on board with this thought process. Trump & Co. bemoan European defence spending; the EU then focussed more on production of armaments in the EU and not reliant on US firms; what happened, the same USA crying that we wouldn't be buying from them. It's basket case management that's leadership inspired.

Edit 2: Just listen to Howard Lutnick on Fox news today. If it was a hack journalist you'd could chalk his nonsense down to stupidity but, he's the Commerce Secretary. His outright lies and misrepresentations are intentional and taken from the President. For an administration to fall in collectively like this, it shouldn't be permitted to simplistically blame one man's term in office. They are all complicit and it shouldn't be forgotten.

If it was in a business scenario (as Trump fans love to equate the running of a government to the same as business) and I was dealing with another company for years with a good relationship; a change of management triggering turmoil and open disdain for my company, would leave me under no illusion that they were not to be further trusted to the same degree. That's a very simplistic summary/analogy I'd definitely contend.

The country has allowed this and, at times, willed it down it's current path. I don't think we should reward such a place, a stronger Europe is what we should now focus on.

American rhetoric is invasive, stupid and dangerous in equal measure and it's crept in here. It's been boiled down to be sold to the lowest common denominator; look at this thread; even though there's been widespread highlighting that his percentages were nonsense, we have people still defending the US policy.

Would you expect us to credit Trump if somehow miraculously it turned out all this stuff worked?

Edit: You know what, book mark this post and in the event of the Tariff escapade working out for us all, I'll happily say I was wrong. Because if that happens, it means Ireland/EU doesn't end up in another financial mess. The last recession doesn't feel like that long ago, I've no wish for us to go through it again.

I see trump is " artificially altering the value of his currency"

I'd say that if chlorinated chicken was cheap enough, people over this side of the Atlantic would buy it. Whether the EU would create a loophole in its food standards to allow the importation of it is another matter…