DF Commission Report

Not sure I would agree, if we are committed to LoA3 as soon as possible then leaving aside the weight times for the high end equipment, there’s plenty of domestic civil works that need to be spun up even faster and more extensively than currently planned. Take the Naval Base for example, there’s the need for more berthing space if the MRV is ever to happen first off, but even more so, that tender for a “master plan” for infrastructure upgrades and repairs explicitly stated for LoA2 needs. Same for the current one underdevelopment for Casement, and all the other bases, not too mention that if we are sticking fighters in Shannon the sooner we get shovels working there the better.

So yes, getting cabinet approval for budget increases and LoA3 are the headlines, but there’s plenty of civil works that are needed along side the recruitment/retention and capital purchases to get there, and the civil works is arguable the easiest to start and will be needed.

Major infrastructure projects going over budget and behind schedule… yeah not even remotely just an Irish problem, see for example HS2, or the new Berlin Airport, or the London Underground expansions or pretty much any of the Western Nuclear power plants… The list goes on and on with nobody “rioting” but sure let’s pretend that it’s a uniquely Irish problem.

Yeah, no, outside of bad jokes nobody did anything about the Berlin farce, nobody burns down Paris over how long EDF take to build a new power plant (I mean its France, they burn things down just for fun), Germany is spending on infrastructure because the political reality has finally been accepted that their obsession with balanced budgets has cripple its basic structural infrastructure to an absurd amount. Also just buying off the needed votes to form a coalition of course, no different than our horse trading.

The Germans are notoriously skittish about debt and inflation. No doubt a muscle memory from the Weimar Republic.

And Angela Merkel shipped a lot of hate for keeping the purse strings tight during the worst of the financial crisis, when they had the capacity for greater domestic stimulus. And that was most acutely felt in the former East German states, where they were still behind the economic curve and suffered disproportionately. This, in turn, became a large factor in why AfD later did so well in those eastern states.

However, Chancellor-in-waiting Merz is a lot more gung-ho, especially if he can turn himself into a Messiah figure at home and in the EU when it comes to pushing back against the Americans. Its why Merkel hated him, they were polar opposites.

But there are a couple of very big opportunities here for Merz.

For starters, the Greens won't be in the next government, so nobody gives a fiddler's what they think of the 500 Bn.

Next, the AfD's connections to other populist proto-fascists, like Musk and Fidesz and all the rest, are turning into something of a liability, due to how stone bonkers the whole lot of them have become.

And so, if Merz can invest massive amounts in those eastern states with defence makers and the Armed Forces, and all the thousands of ancillary jobs they would bring, and properly take credit for it, he could deal AfD a massive political blow too.

I get the sentiment of the argument, but they are 2 bad examples.

France - nuclear energy is a hill (mountain?) the government, a lot of the population and guaranteed anyone living near a plant (in ops or under construction) are willing to die on… it's too big to fail, is a massive employer, a key technology export, and the French have enjoyed quiet cheap prices and stability while a lot of Europe haven't.

EPR is now an in run technology, while massively inflated, those costs within France will be recouped (just over a longer period)…. it's the likes of Hinkley point and Sizewell where massive amounts of funds will be lost (again to France's gain).

Berlin…. Like I mentioned, people get upset when things don't benefit the local common person. The budget structure in Germany is split at local and federal level (local where it hits local common people quicker and harder).

Why there wasn't so much uproar? Because it's been paid with loans. Federal level taking the brunt of the loan Guarantee (and payment), then Berlin and Brandenburg local levels taking a smaller, even slice.

This means longer time to pay back and (key) very little impact on local budgets currently (which is expected to be reduced further through passenger fees and possible other taxes)..

i.e. no impact to the local common people..

Stuttgart 21 which was forced to pay up front out of local budgets (which meant proposed cuts etc…), well that was fun for riots.

In France, the reservoir protests (farmers creating huge reservoirs for agriculture use during dry season ,which local residents had no access to) was another good one for riots.

well that’s a great way for the “joint training” project to die a stupid death, of the three the Army is the least worse off and the least vital for our security needs currently.

Thats not an attractive enough salary to get someone from the private sector who might be doing similar work in a corporate setting.

You'll win nothing with kids.

why next week?

at this stage of its before the summer statement is be pleasantly surprised.

The only thing i believe is certain is that france will be suppling equipment in some form

There'll very likely be no more high profile hardware announcements until the Triple Lock removal legislation is put to bed. They just want to get that over the line and get the new CoS into position.

Harris again has been talking about LoA3 at the Commissioning Ceremony today:

Speaking at the ceremony, Tánaiste and Minister for Defence Simon Harris admitted that Ireland was “lagging behind” in terms of defence spending internationally and that such an approach could not continue.

He said Ireland would commit to Level of Ambition 3 (LOA3), the highest level of ambition as set out by the Commission on the Defence Forces, which reported three years ago. This will see an expanded Army, the establishment of a fleet of modern armoured vehicles for the Army, a military intelligence school and a corps of 300 troops dedicated to cybersecurity.

It will also lead to a 12-ship Naval Service capable of offensive operations and a fleet of fighter aircraft.

Ireland has been repeated criticised internationally for spending just 0.2 per cent of its GDP on defence, the lowest amount in the OECD.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2025/03/28/defence-forces-class-of-2025-commissioned-into-an-increasingly-turbulent-world/

I doubt anyone internationally would really be complaining if we were at that level, but trying to move away from the GDP figure isn’t going to work, even if you are right that it doesn’t fit us. It’s the internationally viewed “standard” measurement, even if it does make our pathetic spending levels look even worse.

I suppose we are fortunate that there was the Commission on Defence report provides a readymade roadmap for military investment and restructuring. It now seems a stronger possibility that LoA 3 will be the policy objective, if Harris is to be believed. However, implementation of these is always an issue, with reforms taking time. Certainly I am one who would prefer things be done properly and sustainably than rushed. There is currently a window where the stars align whereby military spend is also now a strategic political and economic investment, underpinned for once by the money to actually pay for it. I hope those in the military / civil side realise these partially Trump- assisted circumstances may not exist indefinitely and accelerate their planning and ordering. In terms of the jets there is still a long way to go IMHO, as such, I would be cautiously hopeful, but could not say with 100% confidence it will materialise.

So when will we see the French Deal announced?