Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

it’s quite a ways away from the actual air base, so I’m not sure if aircraft operations as such are impeded

Simple answer to that is : yes. Obituaries were posted today for two Russian pilots killed in the strike. In addition, there's footage of shrapnel/débris raining down on houses 5km from the site, and whole villages have been evacuated due to the damage caused by the blast wave. Aircraft in hangars might not have been directly affected, but I'd say there's a heck of a lot of auxillary systems that'll need to be checked before they can safely schedule flights again.

The information that would be most interesting to learn would be what Ukraine used for this attack (and the attack on the Kraznowotzit pumping station) because they were both a serious escalation of damage caused. I am longing for the day Ukraine manages to achieve a similarly devastating attack on the Olenya airbase. If they can achieve that, then I reckon the end of the conflict will not be far behind … and it'll be Russia begging for a ceasefire.

what is so special about the Olenya airbase ?

If Putin ended the war tomorrow there wouldn't be a single person out marching for it to continue or calling for Putin to be impeached, they would tie themselves in knots to agree with whatever he says, there is no one worse they are just playing up to whichever direction Putin is pointing

It might have suited Ireland to be a neutral country up till now . It made sence in the first few years of the country’s recent history ie when we became independant and trying to get that position embedded and not to be beholden to anyone.
NOW we are in COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AND DANGEROUS TIMES - especially from a national security point of view. If a country from THE THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD wanted to ‘cause us problems’ it could Cut our service cables, set fire to any big facility , interfere with the internet,, fund groups that can cause serious problems in the running of our democracy, etc, etc.

all of the above and more can be achieved by using a combination of tools such as:-

Drones

Sleepers

Submarines in ‘ international waters’

’ICT Farms’ that remotely- obviously- specialise in attacking websites to spread false information, extract money, etc.

Talked to a neighbour yesterday. She got spooked by seeing this on the news:

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/france-reportedly-preparing-to-issue-survival-manual-to-all-households-13332429

I got told I was being “cold” talking about a possible war with Russia (that stung), she seemingly thinks the prospect is much too scary to contemplate, has close relatives in London and because nukes/WW3/Armagedon etc. while I was merely pointing out that European history has never seen a century without at least 2 major conflicts going on at some point. So I never thought it was that likely to start being peaceful in this one. I’m from eastern Europe, she’s from the western part (also not Irish). I think this makes up a lot of the difference.

80 years of peace and prosperity, and the few generations of people who haven’t lived through a war (even though their parents may have!) seem to live in some kind of an “I’m alright Jack” bubble and are all of a sudden shocked by a prospect of conflict with a country who they can plainly see on the news is on an imperialistic warpath on the continent (as she acknowledges, however the seriousness of the conflict, the bloodbath element of it never truly penetrates through the primary concerns of daily life, family issues, and the general me fein attitude - and this person considers herself to be supremely empathetic, btw).

It seems that the heartbreaking plight of the Ukranians is something to tsk-tsk about from “far away” watching Sky News, rather than an incentive to stop living in one’s own little bubble and start contemplating that the orange idiot and the KGB murderer are carving up the spoils and readying to wreak more havoc where possible. I do have a problem accepting that denial and “look the other way and maybe it will all go away” mentality are so easily a part of human psyche. I’m no spring chicken and this lady is even older than me. If you want to look at the phenomena of Scholzing, prevarication, indecesiveness in the face of evil, mealy-mouth, half-heart, softly softly approach to issues which really require a robust and quick response, all of which is so pervasive in (Western) Europe and EU in particular, and if you want to know how that happens, this neighbour of mine is a good starting point, she could be anyone’s neighbour and in a way she is. Denial, fear, evasion of uncomfortable facts. God only knows what to then expect of younger generations on these, given certain circumstances come to pass, existential, issues.

Saw a political guy on tv recently (forget who he is), said our neutrality is "sacrosanct". Nobody asked why that should be. And why should it be? We can't just live in the past because it worked in the past.

True enough. Sending troops abroad is a tricky business, but I'm thinking in terms of self defense. I think it is a bit rich for us to depend on others to defend us when we are adamant that we won't defend them.

Unless your in, you're in. We've all seen how useless 'security guarantees' are. I would have doubts about our security and reliability of allies

Wake up

Whatever notions and delusions about the world order you had are gone

The world we knew has radically changed, Russia, China and now the US have taken a wrecking ball to the structures and institutions and certainties we might have had

Forgetting about Iraq (you are quite correct to point out NATO members were very divided on that, with France and Germany opposed and catching huge stick over that from supporters of the invasion), I might be overinterpreting, but I think there is a broader point in that post on the risks when you have powerful militaries available as a tool.

Anyway, we can only deal with what is before us now IMO.

Europe (and the EU) does need to band together and rapidly arm for its own security in face of Russia, and at best an unreliable and at worst a hostile US (regardless of risks a better armed Europe might pose in future).

Not doing so could even increase the chance of further wars in Europe when dealing with gamblers like Putin, who are not shy about use of military force when they think it will gain them something.

We are a lovely stepping stone into Europe.

Ukraine is developing a 3,000 km range drone and even a ballistic missile. Put the 1,000 km Neptunes on a ship and Olenya could be in range from the northern Baltic or off the Norwegian coast, but Finland and Norway might not be too keen on them passing through.

A Russian ship off the coast of Ireland can pound the centre of Galway city to dust. What happens then? An emergency meeting of the security council? lol.