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The Cosmic Lottery and Fine Tuning: Debunking the This Universe Objection

  • 09-02-2025 01:41PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,554 ✭✭✭


    Proponents of the theistic fine tuning argument and opponents of the multiverse hypothesis argue that, while the multiverse might explain why some universe is fine tuned, it doesn't explain why this particular universe is fine tuned. The argument goes thus: under naturalism, the probability of (any) universe having constants with the life permitting values is vanishingly small. A life permitting universe is more likely under a theistic hypothesis than under a naturalistic one. Therefore, it is more likely that the theistic hypothesis is true, than it is a naturalistic one. This judgement of epistemic improbability is arrived at by considering the range of possible values (we believe) the constants could have taken*, and considering how many of those would be in the life permitting range. It turns out, only a tiny fraction would permit life (as far as we know).

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    The Multiverse Objection

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    Proponents of the multiverse hypothesis argue that, in a suitably vast multiverse, comprising universes which realise the entire possible range of values, the probability of a life permitting universe is essentially 1 - it is guaranteed. To which opponents of the multiverse hypothesis object that, while the multiverse explains how some universe would be fine tuned, it doesn't explain why this universe has the life permitting values.

    The theistic objection fails, however, for a very simple reason.

    If we consider the large sample space of possible universes - it is this large sample space which underwrites the theistic claim that a life permitting universe is improbable, in the first place - we can see that *this* universe forms part of that sample space. If it didn’t, then it simply could not have existed.

    A suitably vast multiverse actualises all universes in the sample space, including this universe. Hence, it adequately explains why this universe is fined tuned.

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    The Cosmic Lottery

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    To illustrate this, we can imagine a cosmic lottery in which the sample space (of possible universes) is represented by a drum containing all possible universes, each with a different set of values for the constants - one of which being this universe and it's associated values. In this cosmic lottery, the universe which corresponds to this one, is one among a huge number. Hence, in a lottery where only one ball or universe is chosen (from the sample space), the odds of this universe being chosen and actualised, is "vanishingly small". However, in a lottery where every universe from the sample space of possible universes is selected and actualised, it is inevitable that this universe i.e. the universe corresponding to the set of values we observe in this universe, is selected and actualised.

    *The ex nihilo nihil fit principle entails that, under a naturalistic single universe hypothesis, either no other set of values could have been taken or the values are variable. If the values are variable, then life permitting values are not improbable.

    https://substack.com/home/post/p-156386111



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭Joe1919


    Once upon a time two explorers came upon a clearing in the jungle. In the clearing were growing many flowers and many weeds. One explorer says, "Some gardener must tend this plot." The other disagrees, "There is no gardener." So they pitch their tents and set a watch. No gardener is ever seen. "But perhaps he is an invisible gardener." So they set up a barbed-wire fence. They electrify it. They patrol with bloodhounds. (For they remember how H. G. Well's The Invisible Mancould be both smelt and touched though he could not be seen.) But no shrieks ever suggest that some intruder has received a shock. No movements of the wire ever betray an invisible climber. The bloodhounds never give cry. Yet still the Believer is not convinced. "But there is a gardener, invisible, intangible, insensible to electric shocks, a gardener who has no scent and makes no sound, a gardener who comes secretly to look after the garden which he loves." At last the Skeptic despairs, "But what remains of your original assertion? Just how does what you call an invisible, intangible, eternally elusive gardener differ from an imaginary gardener or even from no gardener at all?"

    I am starting my reply with Anthony Flew’s ‘Parable of the Invisible Gardner’ as I think the ‘fine tuning argument’ is just an extension of the intelligent design argument. The idea of there being some type of ‘intelligent design’ or something that puts some type of order on the chaos of our world is old e.g Cicero. De Natura Deorum (On the Nature of the Gods) 45BC. Many people find the belief that there is some type of intelligence behind the design of the world intuitive and in the absence of a better explanation, this is not unreasonable.

    Of course people now have gained more knowledge since Cicero and perhaps more emphasis on the random nature of events. So as an alternative to intelligent design, we can make some type of speculation that because of the infinity of space and time, there is the possibility of many (finite?)/infinite worlds (or even the re-occurrence of this world) as infinity divided by infinity = one. So this world has to exist. (Please excuse my rough guide).

    There is a third position which is more humble and skeptical and I think more appealing. It has always been argued that the human understanding of the world is limited. Even the most basic building blocks of our understanding e.g. Space, Time, Causation, Infinity, Randomness, our own Freedom and Subjectivity run into difficulties when we comprehend them. There is a strong traditional of this in both eastern and western thought. Thomas Aquinas for example argues that only an Absolute mind can have absolute knowledge. He also acknowledges that belief in God is a matter of faith (alone?). I don’t think he ever claimed that you could prove that God existed (as this was considered a heresy for leaving no room for faith). I think what he did try to prove was that belief in God is not an unreasonable position to take.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,767 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Perhaps there are other approaches that may explain the Anthony Flew Parable of the Invisible Gardener, perhaps similar to your third position above in some ways?

    The scientific method only “suggests” description, explanation, and prediction of phenomena from a collection and analysis of data. These suggestions are held to be useful so long as a preponderance of the data and analysis continue to lend support to these suggestions. Furthermore, these suggestions, often framed as concepts, hypotheses, and theories are subject to falsification (see Karl Popper), and are only considered useful so long as the preponderance of evidence supports them.

    Wallace’s Wheel of Science describes how data collected from observing phenomena can be treated deductively or inductively or an interaction between both. Patterns can emerge from an analysis of data to inductively form empirical generalizations that may suggest and support theories that attempt to describe, explain, and predict phenomena. From theories hypotheses can be deducted for testing purposes against the collection and analysis of data.

    The designs, methods, and sophistication of empirical measurement and analysis are rapidly changing. The Flew parable of observation and measurement appears pre-scientific. Today computer driven algorithms help facilitate this analysis, such methods relatively unavailable until contemporary times, especially as pertains to big data. These methods may be further advanced by quantum computing and generative artificial intelligence programs as they rapidly evolve.

    Because the scientific method can only suggest, is rapidly evolving, and is subject to falsification, it becomes problematic to attempt to use any method, including the pre-scientific Flew parable methods, “to prove… that belief in God is not an unreasonable position to take.”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭Joe1919


    A quick reading of Flews parable seems to suggest that he is supporting some type of 'design Argument'. But his last sentences change everything when he says'

    Just how does what you call an invisible, intangible, eternally elusive gardener differ from an imaginary gardener or even from no gardener at all?

    I think he is making the point that despite the persuasiveness of the argument that there is some type of 'invisible gardener', it cannot either be verified or falsified as the 'gardener' has no difference from 'no gardener at all'. There is a full discussion with Flew in the link below.

    https://peped.org/philosophicalinvestigations/article-anthony-flew-parable-of-the-garden-and-falsification/

    The reason I brought up this parable is because I am wondering does both the 'fine tuning argument' and the 'cosmic lottery' also fall into the same problem of verification and falsification?

    I wonder then why does one choose one argument over the other if neither can be proved? I presume that some find one theory more appealing than another or it fits better into their world view. I am happy to take the sceptical position of 'Epoche' (suspension of judgement) on these matters.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,767 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    The “suspension of judgment” may have some merit given the alternatives. Then again, there may be some value to progress with caution, as is evident with the scientific method only suggesting rather than attempting to prove.

    Robert Merton addressed the limitations of contemporary theories, measurement methods, and data analytics, suggesting that perhaps we are not ready for grand theorizing today, but that there may be some utility in proposing theories of the middle range; e.g., models for testing often found in PhD dissertations today, etc. These models representing bite sized pieces of some future grand theories.

    One example may be worth mentioning at this point. It appears doubtful that anyone fully understands quantum theory today, but there are quantum informed technologies (middle range theoretical models) that have suggested apparently useful descriptions, explanations, and predictions of phenomena.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭Joe1919


    Stanford has an article on 'Philosophy of Cosmology' below with sections on '4.2 Fine-Tuning', 4.3 'Multiverse' as well as a discussion on the problem of treating cosmology as a science (5).

    https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/cosmology/



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,767 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Thanks for the reference. We also note Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy above as a good search source for this forum.



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