Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

It is my understanding they did not make such a guarantee. The only assurance given was that the us would take action, that action was never specified. It was specified explicitly that they would not take direct military action. And they did take considerable action. Pretty much as the agreement states. Obviously more would be better but they did not break the agreement.

https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/budapest-memorandum-myths

U.S. and British Commitments

The memorandum committed the United States and Britain to seek UN Security Council assistance for Ukraine, but it did not commit those two countries take to military action with their own forces against Russia if it violated its commitments—as Russia did in 2014, when it seized Crimea and fought in Donbas, and in 2022, when it launched an all-out invasion. In response to Ukrainian questions when negotiating the assurances, U.S. officials said the United States would take action if Russia violated its commitments but that would not include sending American military forces.

The officials did not discuss specific steps Washington would take. That reflected failure, on the part of Americans and Ukrainians, to foresee in 1993-94 what Russia did in 2014 and 2022. Had Ukrainian officials foreseen those actions, Kyiv almost certainly would have sought more solid guarantees, which the United States and Britain were not prepared to give. Negotiations would have been at an impasse. What would have happened then is unclear."

Good piece here highlighting the relentless threat to Moldova from Putin

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/23/moldova-former-soviet-republic-kremlin-putin

"Nestled between Ukraine and Romania, the nation of 2.4 million is being targeted with relentless Russian malign influence operations – a small country made into a vast laboratory of subversion. As the president, Maia Sandu, put it when I met her earlier this month: “Our democratic processes were not designed for these kind of dangers to democracy.”

"And it’s desperately important to get this right in Moldova, a country that once formed part of the Soviet Union and is now an EU accession country. Moscow’s ultimate aim, Sandu argues, is to help bring its allies to power in Moldova, and then use Moldova to threaten Ukraine from the west and the EU from the east. In the short term, Moscow wants to show that it can use all measures short of outright invasion to keep nations it sees in its “zone of influence” chronically destabilised."

"Sandu won re-election last year with 55%, but her referendum that committed Moldova to EU entry only squeaked through: 50% to 49%. As Sandu reels off the list of active measures taken by Moscow and its proxies over the election, worth an estimated $200m – 1% of the country’s GDP – the scale and scope is startling. Perhaps most audacious was a vote-buying scheme run by a fugitive oligarch, Ilan Shor, who has been indicted for stealing $1bn from Moldovan banks, and is now based in Moscow.

The scheme involved organising often poor, elderly people to register online accounts with a sanctioned Russian bank. They then downloaded a chatbot on the messaging app Telegram that told them how to vote, protest against Sandu or come to the pro-Russian party rallies. People would only get paid once they had completed all the tasks, and would often need to photograph themselves completing them."

"Those involved could see the money hit their accounts – but they couldn’t take the funds from the sanctioned banks easily. So they were meant to put in more effort for the pro-Russian party to win and then remove the sanctions on the bank. “The motivation was very well structured,” admits Sandu.

The plot was foiled by the Moldovan police and undercover journalists at Ziarul de Gardă newspaper. A total of 138,000 bank accounts were identified – out of some 1.5 million voters. So about 10% of the electorate were paid to vote a certain way. But that could just be the tip of the vote-buying scheme: crypto payments and old-fashioned hard cash incentives were also used, with customs identifying a sudden wave of men travelling in from Moscow with hard cash totalling many millions in the run-up to the vote."

"Other operations are economic. Russia recently cut off gas supplies to Moldova and then blamed it on Sandu. Moscow has also been accused of cultivating priests who preach sermons denouncing the EU. Fake letters and posters that look as if they are from the EU or Moldovan authorities, but which discredit EU integration, have been distributed. One fake EU Commission letter claimed that all Moldovan officials who don’t speak English will be fired once the country has joined Brussels."

"Meanwhile, there have been many cyber attacks on official institutions. The police’s website was attacked 2,800 times in one night. The electoral commission was attacked in an attempt to cast doubt on the integrity of voting. Moldovan men were trained in Russia and the Balkans to preparefor street violence. ATMs have been disabled, followed by rumours that the banking system is collapsing.

And then there are the ever-increasing array of propaganda campaigns, on TV as well as online. In 2024 Shor used Facebook to run hundreds of ads that were viewed 155m times – in a country of 1 million Facebook users. Anonymous Telegram groups and other social media have pumped out lies and conspiracy theories: that the government helps the west steal Moldovan land, for example. Or that the EU will ban the words “father” and “mother” and replace with “parent number one” and “parent number two”."

I would like to state that Russia took the agreement, took a **** on it and then wiped their ass with it. They have proven themselves to be categorically without honour or trust when it comes to even legal agreements. They will never recover from eh reputational damage.

Zzzzzzz

It is if the orcs have overrun all or nearly all Ukraine

If Trump pulls the plug on American arms Zelensky's 'gallant European allies' will have to fill the gap almost immediately and

According to Merz, training the Ukrainian personnel for these missiles would take at least four months

You are right we are at a different stage of this war.

We're at a stage where Russian troops need donkeys for logistics.

Zelensky just said in press conference he'd be willing to give up job of president if it meant Ukraine could become part of NATO and have guaranteed security.

Remind us Donald, who's the dictator here?

Trump has never had to work for anything or wait for anything he wanted in his life. Any time he has failed, someone bailed him out, his father, banks or the Russians. And he's been surrounded by evil kunts like Roy Cohen to dig him out of any legal scrapes too. He knows nothing of the world and thinks everyone who can't float through life like he has is a loser. It wasn't all the privilege and assistance that kept him afloat, in his head it was down to him.

He said he would be willing to do so if Ukraine's security was guaranteed. Eg joining NATO. Russia are doing pretty terribly in this conflict btw. Remember how it was gonna be a 3 day invasion? Also let's not forget that Russia doesn't have fair elections, there's no circumstance where Putin would volunteer a resignation and anyone proposing anything like that would likely plummet from a window.

Develop a nuclear stockpile and a satelite system to replace Musk’s SpaceX

Surely, President Zelensky should not have entertained the question re his possible resignation. His confirmation that he might, has already became headline news worldwide. It means imo that his resignation now becomes a matter of when not if. I wonder is the US 'forcing' him to resign.

Sure but that was the agreement "action", I don't believe they were mislead, they simply couldn't get a stronger commitment. So no agreement was broken by the US or UK is a fact. You might be disappointed but spreading misinformation just like the Russians do, only legitimizes the practice. The truth is , if you get the UK or the USA to sign a legal document, they will likely adhere to it, despite all the rhetoric and they did here, that is vital, unless you want complete chaos. We should make it clear that actors like Russia do not adhere to legal agreements in contrast.

Think Zelensky must be pondering about the end game now ,unfortunately for Ukraine they simply can't win on the battlefield no matter how many of us want them to,it's just not going to happen so a deal will go through.The deal has to be a hell of a lot more balanced than the one Trump/Putin are talking about .All the talk of Europe making up for Trump surrendering on their behalf is not going to happen .It's not hindsight to say that Europe must have known the path Trump would go so they missed the chance to really give Ukraine more cards to play .

deal has to be a hell of a lot more balanced than the one Trump/Putin are talking about 

Does it though? They hold all the cards and can basicallly do what they want…

It was simply a response to a question. Perhaps on a broader level it highlights that Trump or Putin would never step down for peace, which is the difference between them and leaders like Zelensky.